I wrote up yesterday how taking Phillies was a good bet - but then I chickened out!....like I probably will with Minnesota today...
Betting the Dog Days of Summer
Baseball bettors generally consider April and August to be the best months for finding the tasty dogs.
April, due to all the unknowns, and August, due to the grind catching up with teams - key injuries, the young unknowns getting called up, schedule fatigue are among the problems here...The heat can cause balls to fly, or batters to get tired or lose patience and swing away. Pitchers wilting and running into that inning limit - you start seeing the dreaded 'dead arm' a lot more.
For example, one key defensive injury I saw the sabermetric guys jump on was when the Cub's Fowler was out a while back and their vaunted defensive unit immediately suffered. He was a key part of it - you see in in the outfield talking to the young guys where to position themselves and such, keeping everyone keen on defense.
All the traveling by this point in the season can wear on the guys. Oakland A's have to travel so much this season (42,119 miles), they complained to MLB to try and get it changed. Didn't work. They will be on the road 14 of 17 days in the latter part of this month.
Some poor teams surge, too late for playoffs, in the second half. Like maybe Minnesota or Philly now...Teams traded away guys, or acquired some, and team chemistry improved or worsened. Bullpens strengthened or weakened by trades is a big one..
and oddsmakers and bettors attention now is increasingly focused on football means plenty more soft lines are gonna be sent out into the marketplace.