July 11, 2006

[danmurphy jr]

Calder Race Course:
2nd #5 Valors Star 3/1 SHOW @7/5
bet down 7/5 - tired beaten by 6
3rd #7 Edge Of A Shadow 4/1 PLACE $4.80 @8/1
Caught @ the wire

Finger Lakes:
9th #8 Hanoi 10/1 SHOW $2.80 @4/1
Bet down- closed for 3rd-11 lengths off

 

[dirty ernie]

Hello Dan. Just wondering what kind of odds you're looking for to decide whether you bet your picks w/p/s? What is your minimum odds for place bets?

 

[danmurphy jr]

Cool reply. An entry at Belmont today's 2nd "Commentator" could fall down in the stretch, get back up, dust himself off and blow this field away. Ordinarily, you would try and beat this one because statistically he has at best a 55% chance of winning. Not here though. Many times, if you love a chalk entry, betting it to Place rather than Win can return a profit and save the frustration of getting nailed at the wire as most folks bet chalk to win only, sometimes a longshot, hopefully mine will Win/Place, upsetting the Pool.
Me?? As I said one time before, Del Mar OTB - 3X a month max. One entry 8/1ML or better. I go to the window 10wps. Put the ticket in my pocket and wait for another I like, 8/1ML or better 10wps. Lose? Go home, Win? 50% of the ticket on the next one. I've never won 3 in arow. I've lost moderate., Won big. 1 high is worth many lows.
Thanks E. Haven't seen you much. You live upstate, right?

 

[dirty ernie]

Cool reply. An entry at Belmont today's 2nd "Commentator" could fall down in the stretch, get back up, dust himself off and blow this field away. Ordinarily, you would try and beat this one because statistically he has at best a 55% chance of winning. Not here though. Many times, if you love a chalk entry, betting it to Place rather than Win can return a profit and save the frustration of getting nailed at the wire as most folks bet chalk to win only, sometimes a longshot, hopefully mine will Win/Place, upsetting the Pool.
Me?? As I said one time before, Del Mar OTB - 3X a month max. One entry 8/1ML or better. I go to the window 10wps. Put the ticket in my pocket and wait for another I like, 8/1ML or better 10wps. Lose? Go home, Win? 50% of the ticket on the next one. I've never won 3 in arow. I've lost moderate., Won big. 1 high is worth many lows.
Thanks E. Haven't seen you much. You live upstate, right?

That looks like a pretty carefully thought out plan for the days racing Dan. I think I'll borrow a couple points from that. Should save me some head banging by the end of the day. These 8/1 and 10/1 ML bets you're playing at Delmar OTB, are they the same picks posted in your threads? I know you usually hit some pretty good odds here.
Btw, thanks for the picks you put up here every day Dan. I know you and Axle put a lotta work into these picks. It doesn't go unnoticed, believe me. There's a few of us out here waiting for you guys to post every day. Keep em comin, they're appreciated man. :toast:
Ernie

 

[danmurphy jr]

Yup, They are the same and thanks again.
Hope to work just the Spa & Del Mar when they open.