July 21st
- Thread starter HONUS
- Start date
Honus,
Congrats on your record so far this season. I noticed that you generall play totals and you play them at plus money. Is the the general gist of what you play or is there a lot more to it that I am missing? Has that been a successful way to play long term?
Congrats on your record so far this season. I noticed that you generall play totals and you play them at plus money. Is the the general gist of what you play or is there a lot more to it that I am missing? Has that been a successful way to play long term?
Thanks. The record is ok, but not great.
My approach is very simple. It is based on the hypothesis that the total for the game is established by the book to get money on both sides. That's not earth shattering.
However, when money flows in and tips the scale to one side, the book should adjust. When it doesn't, I believe the book is taking a side. How does a book let a total get to -150? It should adjust its line.
Now, with baseball, I don't believe the book is scared of a middle. In football yes, with key numbers. But baseball? A total of 9 is like any other number.
So, it the book is taking a side, I want to be on that side.
Also, if you presume the total is established so the win rate is 50% and the book wants only the juice, then any time I can get a total at plus money, I have value (define it as you will).
So, if I can win at a 50% rate at plus money, I'm just like the book.
That's the theory.
It's frustrating at times because you only want to win 50%. But, what the hey, it wins money, although at a very low ROI.
My approach is very simple. It is based on the hypothesis that the total for the game is established by the book to get money on both sides. That's not earth shattering.
However, when money flows in and tips the scale to one side, the book should adjust. When it doesn't, I believe the book is taking a side. How does a book let a total get to -150? It should adjust its line.
Now, with baseball, I don't believe the book is scared of a middle. In football yes, with key numbers. But baseball? A total of 9 is like any other number.
So, it the book is taking a side, I want to be on that side.
Also, if you presume the total is established so the win rate is 50% and the book wants only the juice, then any time I can get a total at plus money, I have value (define it as you will).
So, if I can win at a 50% rate at plus money, I'm just like the book.
That's the theory.
It's frustrating at times because you only want to win 50%. But, what the hey, it wins money, although at a very low ROI.
The reason I wrote and the reason I liked it was because it seems to be relatively low maintenence but it makes sense. Seems to me that if you are getting totals at +110 and higher every time you would most likely make a good profit long term.
Two more questions. Is there one book or another that tends to keep their numbers static? Is there a certain lower limit, say +105 or +110, that you need to see to make a play?
Two more questions. Is there one book or another that tends to keep their numbers static? Is there a certain lower limit, say +105 or +110, that you need to see to make a play?
I need minimum of +110.
I use SIA as the base for the lines. They seem to do well against fav's. However, once I determine the wager, I shop for the best line. Sometimes, if I don't have to pay too high a price, I may take the half run some where else.
Now, Nick, don't go telling the whole world. If everyone did this, it wouldn't work. (just kidding).
I use SIA as the base for the lines. They seem to do well against fav's. However, once I determine the wager, I shop for the best line. Sometimes, if I don't have to pay too high a price, I may take the half run some where else.
Now, Nick, don't go telling the whole world. If everyone did this, it wouldn't work. (just kidding).
Honus,Nick,
Interesting angle you are discussing but I have to disagree with the idea that the 9 total is just like any other number in baseball. The 9 and 7 numbers occur more than their even-numbered counterparts, enough to treat them as much stronger numbers. The reason is that if a game is sitting on 3-3, 4-4, or 5-5 late in the game then it can't be a final score and it's usually a single run that gets tacked on to finish the game.
Interesting angle you are discussing but I have to disagree with the idea that the 9 total is just like any other number in baseball. The 9 and 7 numbers occur more than their even-numbered counterparts, enough to treat them as much stronger numbers. The reason is that if a game is sitting on 3-3, 4-4, or 5-5 late in the game then it can't be a final score and it's usually a single run that gets tacked on to finish the game.
PCzech,
I have a slightly related question. If 9 or 7 is a key number compared to 8, 8.5, 9.5, 10, etc., then is there an effect that the moneyline has on totals movement? For instance if a moneyline is higher or lower is the key number still the same? Also, when a moneyline moves does that have any effect on gauging these totals line moves? Thanks.
I have a slightly related question. If 9 or 7 is a key number compared to 8, 8.5, 9.5, 10, etc., then is there an effect that the moneyline has on totals movement? For instance if a moneyline is higher or lower is the key number still the same? Also, when a moneyline moves does that have any effect on gauging these totals line moves? Thanks.
Hi Nick,
Do you mean the moneyline for the side? So that if a team is a heavy favourite, say the Yankees at home -300, maybe the fact that one team is such a heavy favourite there is less chance that the game will be tied late?
Do you mean the moneyline for the side? So that if a team is a heavy favourite, say the Yankees at home -300, maybe the fact that one team is such a heavy favourite there is less chance that the game will be tied late?
Pretty much, yeah. And also do you think movement on the moneyline could make for a "false" move on the total as well?
I don't know, but I doubt it (regarding the line movement). I mean, what's the biggest line move that we normally see? Maybe something like from -250 to -300? That represents only a total movement of less than 4% chance of winning (from 71.4% to 75%) so I can't see that it could affect a stronger number getting weaker that much, especially since the "strongness factor" really isn't that "strong" in the first place (if that makes sense).
But the previous point is interesting: that a big favourite on its own could "close the gap" between the odd and even numbers since a tie in the late inings is less likely. What we would need to do is analyze as many games as possible of favourites of say, -250 and higher versus games of favourites of say, -150 and lower and see what the totals distribution looks like. I have a database of the last 10 MLB seasons in Excel format so I'll try and come up with something on this soon (when I get back from vacation
But the previous point is interesting: that a big favourite on its own could "close the gap" between the odd and even numbers since a tie in the late inings is less likely. What we would need to do is analyze as many games as possible of favourites of say, -250 and higher versus games of favourites of say, -150 and lower and see what the totals distribution looks like. I have a database of the last 10 MLB seasons in Excel format so I'll try and come up with something on this soon (when I get back from vacation
