just a hint....

[Investment Executive]

one of the ways to look at a pitching line is to anayalze the boxscore and game log of starters last game and 2nd last game to look for starters who got away w/ murder last time out or 2nd last time out....

mondays' starters who the public think have pitched well on the surface when they look at era and the final scores and overall stats but......got away w/ murder....are:

brewers/levrault
cubs/taveraz
astros/miller
tigers/holt
yankees/keisler

use the resource page here at madjacks to look up their boxscores http://www.madjacksports.com/resources.shtml
...and remember don't judge a book by its cover...read the book

good luck

IE

 

[wigs]

just looking at holt's numbers and you hit the nail on the head. while he has won his past two starts, he has still been flirting with disaster. 7 hits and 5 walks against the yanks(only 59 of 109 pitches for strikes). same against zona 8 hits in 6 innings. he has also thrown over 100 pitches last 2 starts, the last time he did that, he got ripped against the brewers for 8 runs in 4 plus innings. of course the brewers lefty bats are what gives holt problems, as his curve and change-up are not up to par with his #1 pitch, a sinking fastball(lefties hit .322) min should bring out the lefties tomorrow against him and plug those gaps in detroit, where holt has pitched less effectively (6.27 era)of course still more to look at, but trying to bring out some info to share.

 

[Investment Executive]

good stuff.....will add later in morning ...keep it coming

thanks wigs...

 

[Investment Executive]

just to add right now....the twins are a 1st pitch hitting team...thats the way kelly and hitting coach have them this season......

take a look at holt's 1st pitch count:

CHRIS HOLT Situational Pitching
(THROUGH SATURDAY, JUNE 23)
-------------------------------

                    OPP BA   AB   H  2B  3B  HR  BB  SO  HB
                    ------   --   -  --  --  --  --  --  --
vs. LH Batters        .324  176  57  10   4   8  16  25   3
vs. RH Batters        .290  176  51  11   0   3  18  26   3


       W  L  S   ERA  G GS CG SHO   IP   H   R  ER  HR  BB  SO HB WP BK  OPP BA
       -  -  -   ---  - -- -- ---   --   -   -  --  --  --  -- -- -- --  ------
Home   2  5  0  6.27  9  9  1  0  51.2  66  38  36   5  26  27  4  2  0    .316
Road   4  0  0  4.33  6  5  0  0  35.1  42  17  17   6   8  24  2  0  0    .294

Day    3  2  0  5.66  6  5  1  0  35.0  48  24  22   3   8  17  2  0  0    .322
Night  3  3  0  5.37  9  9  0  0  52.0  60  31  31   8  26  34  4  2  0    .296

Grass  5  5  0  5.33 14 13  1  0  81.0  98  50  48  10  34  45  6  2  0    .302
Turf   1  0  0  7.50  1  1  0  0   6.0  10   5   5   1   0   6  0  0  0    .370


       W  L  S   ERA  G GS CG SHO   IP   H   R  ER  HR  BB  SO HB WP BK  OPP BA
       -  -  -   ---  - -- -- ---   --   -   -  --  --  --  -- -- -- --  ------
ANA    0  1  0  4.76  1  1  0  0   5.2   8   5   3   0   4   3  1  0  0    .348
ARI    1  0  0  3.00  1  1  0  0   6.0   8   2   2   0   1   4  0  0  0    .320
BAL    1  0  0  2.00  1  1  1  0   9.0   9   2   2   0   0   2  0  0  0    .250
BOS    0  0  0  3.68  1  1  0  0   7.1   6   3   3   3   0   5  2  0  0    .214
CHA    1  1  0  5.71  3  3  0  0  17.1  14  11  11   1   7  12  0  1  0    .219
CLE    0  2  0  7.30  3  2  0  0  12.1  23  10  10   1   7   8  1  0  0    .418
MIL    0  1  0 16.62  1  1  0  0   4.1   9   8   8   2   2   0  1  0  0    .409
NYY    1  0  0  2.45  1  1  0  0   7.1   7   2   2   0   5   5  0  1  0    .259
TAM    1  0  0  7.50  1  1  0  0   6.0  10   5   5   1   0   6  0  0  0    .370
TEX    1  0  0  5.40  2  2  0  0  11.2  14   7   7   3   8   6  1  0  0    .311


                     1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  Extra
                     -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -----
Runs By Inning       9  4 12  9 10  8  0  3  0  0

Walks/IP:                          0.39
Walks/9 Innings:                   3.52
Strikeout/Walk Ratio:              1.50

Ground Ball Double Plays:          9
Stolen Bases Against:              3
Caught Stealing For:               4
Pickoffs:                          0

Average Length Per Start:          6.00

Run Support Per Start
        While In Game:             3.79
              Overall:             4.93

                           Batters Faced    First Pitch Strikes
First Pitch Strikes:               400            227

                           Appearances      First Batter Retired
First Batter Retired:              15             9

                           Innings Started  Lead-off Batter Retired
Lead-off Batter Retired:           93             56

                        AVG    AB   H   2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  SH  SF

on 1st pitch           .364    44  16    3   1   3   10   0   0   3   1
on 0-1 count           .263    38  10    1   0   1    7   0   0   0   0
on 0-2 count           .263    19   5    0   1   0    2   0   5   0   0
on 1-0 count           .313    32  10    1   0   1    2   0   0   0   0
on 1-1 count           .400    30  12    2   1   1    6   0   0   0   1
on 1-2 count           .136    44   6    1   0   1    1   0  19   0   0
on 2-0 count           .444    18   8    2   1   0    2   0   1   1   0
on 2-1 count           .357    28  10    3   0   1    3   0   0   0   0
on 2-2 count           .327    49  16    4   0   2    7   0  16   0   0
on 3-0 count          1.000     1   1    0   0   1    2  12   0   0   0
on 3-1 count           .263    19   5    3   0   0    5  10   0   0   0
on 3-2 count           .300    30   9    1   0   0    1  12  10   0   0

after 1-0 count        .333   144  48    9   1   3   16  25  13   1   1
after 0-1 count        .268   164  44    9   2   5   22   9  38   0   0

0-Out                  .338   130  44    6   2   4   11  10  15   3   1
1-Out                  .278   108  30    4   2   3   16  11  15   1   1
2-Out                  .298   114  34   11   0   4   21  13  21   0   0

RISP
  overall              .250    96  24    6   1   5   37  11  19   4   2
  2-out                .234    47  11    3   0   3   17   3  10   0   0

3rd, less than 2-out   .286    14   4    0   1   0   10   5   4   1   2

Bases loaded           .333     9   3    1   0   0    8   0   2   0   1

sorry this could be out of frame on forum...

 

[wigs]

great stuff, i have not checked any local min info and since it is a day game do not know if there would be any starters resting, but i would surmise a lineup similar to the one that faced weaver with lefties like hocking guzman mientkiewicz,koskie,jones pierzinski(pierzinski dh'd yesterday) and lawton.

 

[Wizard of Odds]

Great stuff guys. Was thinking the same thing yesterday when Baldwin got away with an undeserved win. Can not wait to fade him in his next outing. He only gave up 2 runs in 6 innings, buy walked 6 and was behind the count to almost everyone he faced. Threw 102 pitches and only 56 for strikes. Fade alert for his next start.

 

[JMARK]

This works well the other way as well. Buerhle of Chisox is a perfect example. Earlier in the year, he had a great K to BB ratio and hits/inning ratio but was not getting the returns. He has since been on fire.

 

[TexasBC6]

IE, wigs - you guys seemed to be right on with that info on Holt. Wish I would have known it was an early start, wasn't able to play it. Great job though guys, keep it up!