Went 5-2 on my plays last week and posted writeups of the games but none of the teasers that I played for superstitiion purposes.
But this is 2007 and off to a good start so here we go...
Just one play for this weekend!
I wouldn't be surprised if this were a tricky week with favorites winning SU but not covering and possibly one upset with an outright underdog winner....so...when in doubt...Tease!!
Medium size play:
3 game 10 point Teaser
Baltimore Ravens +6 over Colts
Chicago Bears +1 over Seahawks
Patriots +15 over Chargers
Ravens +6?I was on the Colts bandwagon last week and nothing that they did surprised me including Peyton Manning?s continued struggles in the Playoffs?however as I pointed out last week?THEY WERE AT HOME?this week they must travel to Baltimore a place that will resemble an angry Bee?s nest by game time?the Colts won?t have the luxury of playing in the dome on a super fast surface?but they will also be out of their element playing outside on a grass surface and quite possibly in the rain which the weatherman is calling for at this time?the Colts defense is a smallish quicker type unit that plays it?s best on a fast track in the Dome?this week?it wouldn?t surprise me at all if their run defense struggles once again since they are playing on grass and facing a physical Ravens running game?as far as I?m concerned?the Ravens offense is just an average unit?but one that thrives when their running game is clicking on all cylinders which opens up the play-action which Steve McNair masters?on the flips side?the only chance the Colts have to win this game is if Peyton Manning has a really really good outing?however?the Ravens Defense is masterful at disguising their blitzes and the combination of Adaius Thomas and Terrell Suggs will be in the Colts backfield all day?even if Manning recognizes the pressure coming and decides to throw the ball he often struggles because he is at his best when he has time in the pocket to set his feet?Manning is at his worst under pressure which I feel he will be all day long against the Ravens?All in All?The Colts will give it their all?but a well rested Baltimore team advances to the AFC Championship game. Trends?Baltimore is 4-1 ATS versus teams with a winning record?Indy is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in January?2-5 ATS last 7 versus the AFC and just 6-13 ATS last 19 as a road doggie?.the weatherman is calling for a 70% chance of light rain with temps in the upper 50?s and light winds at 6 mph.
Baltimore 21 Indianapolis 17
Bears +1?These two teams met earlier in the season with the Bears beating a Shaun Alexanderless Seahawks team in a laugher!...this week the Bears face a team that is truly lucky to still be alive at this time?yes the Seahawks are here because of Tony Romo?s botched snap but that wasn?t the real reason they beat the Cowboys last week?Dallas used a conservatively horrible gameplan ...they had a hot hand in RB Julius Jones but failed to use him in two crucial 3rd down situations opting for Marion Barber instead?Barber has been their short-yardage back? but he only converted 50% of his carries during the season in that situation and was ineffective up to that point?the Cowboys also failed to attack the Seahawks glaring weakness in their secondary which was one of the biggest mistakes a playoff team has made since I?ve been watching the game?this week I expect a well rested Bears team to pick up where they left off the last time these two played? but even with the Seahawks suspect secondary? I feel the Bears may be more inclined to run their two headed monster of Jones and Benson in this one against a Seahawks defense that has worn down in the second half of games this season against the run?I feel the Bears will be successful running the ball which will open up the play action pass where Rex Grossman will be able to strike against the Seahawks secondary?I feel the Bears will be able to move the ball at will offensively and control the tempo of this game?the only way that a poor traveling road Seahawks team comes out of Chicago with a win is if Bears Qb Rex Grossman turns the ball over and gift wraps one for Seattle?with all the negative controversy surrounding Grossman recently I think the Bears will put a ?well prepared? Grossman in the right situations so that he succeeds on Sunday?IF Grossman were facing the Ravens ?D? this week then things would be different?but?facing a banged up poor traveling ?D? like the Seahawks?may be just what the Doctor ordered for Grossman this week?
On the flip side?the Seahawks offense did a pretty good job moving the ball last week against the Cowboys but they struggled in the red-zone and Hasselback continued to turn the ball over? a problem that has plagued him all season long?this week he will be facing an opportunistic Bears Defense that hasn?t been quite the same since losing DT?s Tommie Harris, Tank Johnson and S Mike Brown?however?the Bears played a very vanilla defense at the end of the season after clinching home-field and I expect some new wrinkles including a blitz package to offset the pass rush the Bears lost from the interior of their line after Tommie Harris went down?the Bears also have a huge special teams advantage especially if rookie Devin Hester is able to go this week?Trends ? Seattle is just 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 vs the NFC and 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 on the road?Chicago is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as favs between 3.5 -10?the weatherman is calling for a 70% chance of a wintry mix with temps in the mid 30?s and winds at 17.
Chicago 23 Seattle 16
Patriots +15?The Patriots march into San Diego fresh off the dismantling of their division rival the Jets?this week the Pats face a much tougher task as they face arguably the best team in the NFL this season?to cut to the chase?I really like the Pats +15 in this one because this game could turn out to be the best match up off all the games this weekend?on paper?it?s a mismatch for the Patriots?yes the Patriots because this is what they bring to the table?Tom Brady is 11-1 all time in the post-season?Bill Belicheck is 12-2 all-time in the post-season?the Chargers counter with Phillip Rivers uhh 0-0 in the post-season?ok let?s try again?Marty Shottenheimer 5-12 all-time in the post season?yes those records don?t lie?however?on the field the Chargers may have the edge in talent but I?m a little weary of the way Phillip Rivers played down the stretch?Rivers isn?t the most mobile of QB?s and doesn?t have a great arm?what he does best is set his feet and throw the ball in textbook fashion? however?when Rivers has faced the heat (pass-rush) this season he?s been at his worst?Rivers suffered a foot injury in the Chargers last regular season game and looked really hobbled?he?s not listed on the injury report but I doubt if he?s going to be 100% on Sunday which will be huge for all the reasons I mentioned above?these two teams met last season in Foxboro with the Chargers pasting the Pats 41-17 in a game in which the score was tied 17-17 at the half before the Pats turned the ball over 3 times and thus the game as well...the Chargers were a ripped and healthy unit in that game?the Pats were banged up?The Bottom line?Look for the Patriots to run the ball with their two headed monster in Dillon and Maroney but I also feel they will open the game with a 4 WR set and try to move Merriman off the line?the Chargers secondary is their weakness and I fully expect the Patriots to test them early and often?on the flip side?the Chargers need L.T. to have a huge game this week and take the pressure off of Phillip Rivers?however?the Pats are solid against the run and may bring that extra guy in the box to prevent L.T. from beating them?it will then be up to Phillip Rivers to get the job done?Bottom Line Part 2?I wouldn?t be surprised if the Pats are the only road team to win on the road this week?however?my crystal ball shows a late FG sending them packing back home for the season?this one should turn out to be a classic either way?Trends?New England is 4-1 ATS as road dogs of 3.5-10?5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a 14+ SU win? and? a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games versus teams with a winning record?San Diego is 6-0 ATS as a home fav between 3.5 -10?4-1 ATS vs a team with a winning record?but just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite?.the weatherman is calling for a sunny day with a high of 61 and light winds under 10 mph.
San Diego 27 New England 24
But this is 2007 and off to a good start so here we go...
Just one play for this weekend!
I wouldn't be surprised if this were a tricky week with favorites winning SU but not covering and possibly one upset with an outright underdog winner....so...when in doubt...Tease!!
Medium size play:
3 game 10 point Teaser
Baltimore Ravens +6 over Colts
Chicago Bears +1 over Seahawks
Patriots +15 over Chargers
Ravens +6?I was on the Colts bandwagon last week and nothing that they did surprised me including Peyton Manning?s continued struggles in the Playoffs?however as I pointed out last week?THEY WERE AT HOME?this week they must travel to Baltimore a place that will resemble an angry Bee?s nest by game time?the Colts won?t have the luxury of playing in the dome on a super fast surface?but they will also be out of their element playing outside on a grass surface and quite possibly in the rain which the weatherman is calling for at this time?the Colts defense is a smallish quicker type unit that plays it?s best on a fast track in the Dome?this week?it wouldn?t surprise me at all if their run defense struggles once again since they are playing on grass and facing a physical Ravens running game?as far as I?m concerned?the Ravens offense is just an average unit?but one that thrives when their running game is clicking on all cylinders which opens up the play-action which Steve McNair masters?on the flips side?the only chance the Colts have to win this game is if Peyton Manning has a really really good outing?however?the Ravens Defense is masterful at disguising their blitzes and the combination of Adaius Thomas and Terrell Suggs will be in the Colts backfield all day?even if Manning recognizes the pressure coming and decides to throw the ball he often struggles because he is at his best when he has time in the pocket to set his feet?Manning is at his worst under pressure which I feel he will be all day long against the Ravens?All in All?The Colts will give it their all?but a well rested Baltimore team advances to the AFC Championship game. Trends?Baltimore is 4-1 ATS versus teams with a winning record?Indy is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in January?2-5 ATS last 7 versus the AFC and just 6-13 ATS last 19 as a road doggie?.the weatherman is calling for a 70% chance of light rain with temps in the upper 50?s and light winds at 6 mph.
Baltimore 21 Indianapolis 17
Bears +1?These two teams met earlier in the season with the Bears beating a Shaun Alexanderless Seahawks team in a laugher!...this week the Bears face a team that is truly lucky to still be alive at this time?yes the Seahawks are here because of Tony Romo?s botched snap but that wasn?t the real reason they beat the Cowboys last week?Dallas used a conservatively horrible gameplan ...they had a hot hand in RB Julius Jones but failed to use him in two crucial 3rd down situations opting for Marion Barber instead?Barber has been their short-yardage back? but he only converted 50% of his carries during the season in that situation and was ineffective up to that point?the Cowboys also failed to attack the Seahawks glaring weakness in their secondary which was one of the biggest mistakes a playoff team has made since I?ve been watching the game?this week I expect a well rested Bears team to pick up where they left off the last time these two played? but even with the Seahawks suspect secondary? I feel the Bears may be more inclined to run their two headed monster of Jones and Benson in this one against a Seahawks defense that has worn down in the second half of games this season against the run?I feel the Bears will be successful running the ball which will open up the play action pass where Rex Grossman will be able to strike against the Seahawks secondary?I feel the Bears will be able to move the ball at will offensively and control the tempo of this game?the only way that a poor traveling road Seahawks team comes out of Chicago with a win is if Bears Qb Rex Grossman turns the ball over and gift wraps one for Seattle?with all the negative controversy surrounding Grossman recently I think the Bears will put a ?well prepared? Grossman in the right situations so that he succeeds on Sunday?IF Grossman were facing the Ravens ?D? this week then things would be different?but?facing a banged up poor traveling ?D? like the Seahawks?may be just what the Doctor ordered for Grossman this week?
On the flip side?the Seahawks offense did a pretty good job moving the ball last week against the Cowboys but they struggled in the red-zone and Hasselback continued to turn the ball over? a problem that has plagued him all season long?this week he will be facing an opportunistic Bears Defense that hasn?t been quite the same since losing DT?s Tommie Harris, Tank Johnson and S Mike Brown?however?the Bears played a very vanilla defense at the end of the season after clinching home-field and I expect some new wrinkles including a blitz package to offset the pass rush the Bears lost from the interior of their line after Tommie Harris went down?the Bears also have a huge special teams advantage especially if rookie Devin Hester is able to go this week?Trends ? Seattle is just 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 vs the NFC and 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 on the road?Chicago is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as favs between 3.5 -10?the weatherman is calling for a 70% chance of a wintry mix with temps in the mid 30?s and winds at 17.
Chicago 23 Seattle 16
Patriots +15?The Patriots march into San Diego fresh off the dismantling of their division rival the Jets?this week the Pats face a much tougher task as they face arguably the best team in the NFL this season?to cut to the chase?I really like the Pats +15 in this one because this game could turn out to be the best match up off all the games this weekend?on paper?it?s a mismatch for the Patriots?yes the Patriots because this is what they bring to the table?Tom Brady is 11-1 all time in the post-season?Bill Belicheck is 12-2 all-time in the post-season?the Chargers counter with Phillip Rivers uhh 0-0 in the post-season?ok let?s try again?Marty Shottenheimer 5-12 all-time in the post season?yes those records don?t lie?however?on the field the Chargers may have the edge in talent but I?m a little weary of the way Phillip Rivers played down the stretch?Rivers isn?t the most mobile of QB?s and doesn?t have a great arm?what he does best is set his feet and throw the ball in textbook fashion? however?when Rivers has faced the heat (pass-rush) this season he?s been at his worst?Rivers suffered a foot injury in the Chargers last regular season game and looked really hobbled?he?s not listed on the injury report but I doubt if he?s going to be 100% on Sunday which will be huge for all the reasons I mentioned above?these two teams met last season in Foxboro with the Chargers pasting the Pats 41-17 in a game in which the score was tied 17-17 at the half before the Pats turned the ball over 3 times and thus the game as well...the Chargers were a ripped and healthy unit in that game?the Pats were banged up?The Bottom line?Look for the Patriots to run the ball with their two headed monster in Dillon and Maroney but I also feel they will open the game with a 4 WR set and try to move Merriman off the line?the Chargers secondary is their weakness and I fully expect the Patriots to test them early and often?on the flip side?the Chargers need L.T. to have a huge game this week and take the pressure off of Phillip Rivers?however?the Pats are solid against the run and may bring that extra guy in the box to prevent L.T. from beating them?it will then be up to Phillip Rivers to get the job done?Bottom Line Part 2?I wouldn?t be surprised if the Pats are the only road team to win on the road this week?however?my crystal ball shows a late FG sending them packing back home for the season?this one should turn out to be a classic either way?Trends?New England is 4-1 ATS as road dogs of 3.5-10?5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a 14+ SU win? and? a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games versus teams with a winning record?San Diego is 6-0 ATS as a home fav between 3.5 -10?4-1 ATS vs a team with a winning record?but just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite?.the weatherman is calling for a sunny day with a high of 61 and light winds under 10 mph.
San Diego 27 New England 24
