To the cappers out there who take a side because that side lost the first two games of a series and they can not see that team getting swept. IMO , that isn't a reason to bet a team , but a reason to bet against it because it must be playing bad to lose two in a row , or the other team must playing great. I think you should play a team thats hot , stay away from a team thats cold , and don't bet a team who lost two in a row just because you think they can't be swept in a series . I'm not the best capper in the world, but I don't take a team because they are due to win. I see in some of the write ups , people are picking teams only because they believe that team will win 2 out of three. I look at a series one game at a time and no matter who wins each game , I can and will be able to sweep the series!:shrug: Just my opinion.
JUst wondering why?
- Thread starter Pgh Kid
- Start date
well from a coaching stand point teams do look at takeing the series when they draw up their game plan and if it means letting one get by to win 2,which means they leave a guy out to dry on the mound or will only have a few guys ready for use in bullpin,or they sit a few starters for the game and only use them inless its a must,the manager will do it,yes they are played 1 game at a time but the coaching and team looks at winning the series as the whole picture,coaches know if you win most of your home series and go 500 on the road you have a very good chance of making the playoffs and they coach that way,trust me on this.
also in pro ball it is very hard to be swept thats why you see people play against the sweep,and in a 4 gamer it is even harder,also if team a wins first 2 lots of time they will set key players for rest because their goal was reached and they are planning for their next series. baseball in the pros live by the 33.3% rule. most of the time a team is going to win 33.3% of games also lose 33.3% of games its what happens in those other 33.3% that makes you a contender or not and managers manage their team this way.
also in pro ball it is very hard to be swept thats why you see people play against the sweep,and in a 4 gamer it is even harder,also if team a wins first 2 lots of time they will set key players for rest because their goal was reached and they are planning for their next series. baseball in the pros live by the 33.3% rule. most of the time a team is going to win 33.3% of games also lose 33.3% of games its what happens in those other 33.3% that makes you a contender or not and managers manage their team this way.
Thanks for the info Fletch. Gives me something else to ponder.Someday I hope to be as good a capper as you.
Fletcher's point is excellent. Just for your own knowledge, make a note when a team wins the first 2 of a 3 game series of the first 3 of a 4 gamer. Then note the lineup for the last game. You will more often than not see at least one regular on the bench if not more. You can't rest the good players when the team is going bad. So, the only time to give the guys a rest is when you have won a few. Happens alot with catchers and older players and players recovering from injuries or injury prone. If you bet your games without checking tghe starting lineups, this can really bite you in the ass, especially in the second half of the year.
Ain't it grand!From Mike Lee's book "Betting the Bases".
Teams at home who've lost the first 2 games of a 3 game series.
Results for game 3: (5 year study)
wins: 171 losses: 175 49% avg price: -1.15.
A $100 unit bet on each of these games would put you in the hole $3025 over 5 years.
The problem with betting against the team on the verge of the sweep is that it ignores current form.
Teams at home who've lost the first 2 games of a 3 game series.
Results for game 3: (5 year study)
wins: 171 losses: 175 49% avg price: -1.15.
A $100 unit bet on each of these games would put you in the hole $3025 over 5 years.
The problem with betting against the team on the verge of the sweep is that it ignores current form.
