Longhorn,
Every Bucks game has gone over the 1st half total, with the exception of a game that was "off the board", anyway. (A few of the early season games were close to the number, so you may have had a tie/loss)
This is, I believe, a direct result of the way the Bucks play ball. They tend to come out very fast, which makes the other team follow suit. Then, in the second half, they seem to be cold, and both teams play worse! So.....you get two lopsided halves of play. Since linesmakers split these games in two equall halves, you have a very disproportionate line in the first half.
Example:
Bucks are +6 and 190 in a game. That translates to +3 and 95 in the 1st half. This number is almost always wrong. because of the style of ball the Bucks play. Yesterday was the first attempt all season, that the linesmakers actually had a slightly higher first half line! (101 on the half, and 198 overall.) Still way of base!
Sooner, or later, the Bucks will not cover, but as Keyser stated, don't let that disuade you from looking at the bet! The thing is, they seem to be playing a little more aggresively all game now, and the game total is getting blown out, too. This will be bad for the theory, because the first half line will climb to keep up with the game total. (That is to say, if the total moves from 195 to 203, on a regular basis, the 1st half will be more in line, with a 102, or so......no more value.)
So far, there have been plenty of games where I give the total as much as 6 or 7 points off in the 1st! That's a nice margin!
I hope this helps, and I hope you look at it as an angle in the future.
