Kentucky Derby

[Smitty]

ok, ok, thousands of you have been begging for smitty's derby picks. figured i'd throw this out there for shits and giggles. spreading more than a $10 whore.

betting against the top two choices (the Pletcher horses,15 & 5). i think both will need to run faster than they ever have to win this, and i'm not taking a short price on either. Forte hasn't gotten any faster since his 2-year old campaign, plus he's a closer in a 20-horse field. and i'm looking for Tapit Trice to bounce (and he is almost guaranteed to be very wide on the 2nd turn). Pletcher has had 61 Derby entries. Only 1 (!) has ever run faster than his previous starts.

using 1,2,3,4,6,9,14,17 and probably the 12 underneath. 50? tri with the 12 in 3rd is almost $200. but, boy, it'll pay quite handsomely. $1 exacta with all 9 is "only" $72.

any discussion is welcome.

 

[Smitty]

ok, posting a few more races, because i like this better than cleaning the house for our Derby party tomorrow. all are today at CD.

8th
kinda chalky in this one. using the 1(6-1), 4 (15-1), 8 (5-1) and 11 (4-5). the 11 has the speed to clear from out there, but it may take something out of her, and i have the other 3 as fast or nearly as fast.

10th
using the 2 (6-1), 6 (5-1), 10 (10-1) over 5 (5-1) and 9 (7-2). again, kinda chalky. but looking to beat the 3 who is favored and the 11 who is 5-1.

11th (Oaks)
these odds are current, not the ML. using the 2 (35-1), 4 (5-1), 7 (8-5), 11 (13-1), and 14 (12-1).

 

[Smitty]

and my tickets for the Derby just got cheaper. The 9 has also scratched. kinda crazy... 4 scratches already. down to 19 horses.

 

[Smitty]

well, the damn 3 horse cost me a lot of money in the Oaks. results were 14-3-2-7. always that one horse getting in the way.

 

[redsfann]

The 3, 4, 7, 11, 17 and 22 are the horses I’m taking a 2nd and 3rd look at.
I’ve finally realized that all betting on the Kentucky Derby is a quick way to lose money, so I limit my wagers to 50 total.
if I hit, I know I’m making some good $$. When I don’t, I haven’t lost too much.
may the horse racing Gods smile upon us today and we make some coin :toast:

 

[Smitty]

The 3, 4, 7, 11, 17 and 22 are the horses I’m taking a 2nd and 3rd look at.
I’ve finally realized that all betting on the Kentucky Derby is a quick way to lose money, so I limit my wagers to 50 total.
if I hit, I know I’m making some good $$. When I don’t, I haven’t lost too much.
may the horse racing Gods smile upon us today and we make some coin :toast:

:toast:

Yeah, betting the Derby is tough. Even down to 18 horses, so many things have to happen to get a decent trip. Which is why you pretty much have to spread to have any reasonable chance. The nice thing is, as you said, when you do hit, it's gonna pay.

So this sucks... Forte has scratched. I was getting a lot of my value by trying to beat him.

I'm excited though... only 6 hours away from mint juleps. Man, I love 'em.

 

[redsfann]

:toast:

Yeah, betting the Derby is tough. Even down to 18 horses, so many things have to happen to get a decent trip. Which is why you pretty much have to spread to have any reasonable chance. The nice thing is, as you said, when you do hit, it's gonna pay.

So this sucks... Forte has scratched. I was getting a lot of my value by trying to beat him.

I'm excited though... only 6 hours away from mint juleps. Man, I love 'em.

Enjoy the day of racing, Smitty, and may all your exotics be winners

 

[Morris]

GL today neighbor!

 

[Smitty]

thanks, guys. another derby, another kick in the dick. i was alive in a few things with the 3. and i just looked at my notes, and i had the 8 as the fastest horse that i didn't use. but i also didn't think he was going to run well. the worst part? i saw the pink saddle cloth and thought it was the red of the #1 horse. if the 1 had won, i would have hit for over $1,700. so i got pretty excited until i realized it was the 8.
morris, how have you been?

 

[Morris]

Doing good man! You still in CP? We're both retired now so traveling as much as we can.
Stopped at Sabor Azteca the other night and nobody there. Food was OK. Blaze was good for pizza!

 

[Smitty]

yup, between exits 10 & 11. you still up in saratoga?

nice! i retired last year. not by choice. but i'm loving retirement so far. :0074

we've thought about checking out Sabor Azteca. Heard ok things, but nothing great. I think they do a lunch buffet that we may try. And I must admit, Blaze is a great concept. I've had some pretty tasty pizzas from there.