I cut an article out of a publication that I subcribed to last year that dealt with betting strategies to look for in the 2003 season. I am going to try and get the meat of the story in a very condensed version of the original.
The first theory deals with teams that stepped it up on defense in the last part of the season are good bets early in the next.
-BYU After surrendering 32.4 points per game throughout the first 8 games, they only gave up 18.5 the last four.
-Michigan They avg. giving up only 14 points per game in last four, and 3 of those were bowl teams (Minny, Wisky, Ohio St.)
-Utah After allowing 28 points or more four weeks in a row during the middle of the season, they only allowed an avg. of 13.66 in the final three and also have a "batch" or returning players on defense.
The second is the "The New Coach Turnaround Theory" where the logic is having a head coach in either their first or second year at a school turn around the "losing mentality" and get his club to play above expectations, there by improving recruiting and the player's state of mind, helping create positives all around, including the club's pointspread performances.
Teams that fall into this theory are Notre Dame, Arizona State, California, Missouri, Oklahoma St. and Tulane.
The last is the "Losing a Star Quaterback Theory" where they state that teams that lose a veteran/star quarterback often "fall off the map" one year later should they have no capable replacement. Illinois failed to cover 4 or their first 6 last year after losing Kurt Kittner.
-Texas Tech Kliff Kingsbury won't be easily replaced and could stagger a bit the first part of the season.
-Marshall Byron Leftwich is gone to the NFL, but the Thundering Herd does have a highly regarded replacement in Stan Hill, but still might take a while to get rolling.
-USC Losing Heisman Trophy-winning QB Carson Palmer will hurt alot and USC could struggle in the first part of the season.
There might be other teams to add to these lists, but these were the teams that were in the article written last January. These theories should be looked at strongly at the beginning of the year and could prove to be profitable for the duration.
Good Luck
__________________
The first theory deals with teams that stepped it up on defense in the last part of the season are good bets early in the next.
-BYU After surrendering 32.4 points per game throughout the first 8 games, they only gave up 18.5 the last four.
-Michigan They avg. giving up only 14 points per game in last four, and 3 of those were bowl teams (Minny, Wisky, Ohio St.)
-Utah After allowing 28 points or more four weeks in a row during the middle of the season, they only allowed an avg. of 13.66 in the final three and also have a "batch" or returning players on defense.
The second is the "The New Coach Turnaround Theory" where the logic is having a head coach in either their first or second year at a school turn around the "losing mentality" and get his club to play above expectations, there by improving recruiting and the player's state of mind, helping create positives all around, including the club's pointspread performances.
Teams that fall into this theory are Notre Dame, Arizona State, California, Missouri, Oklahoma St. and Tulane.
The last is the "Losing a Star Quaterback Theory" where they state that teams that lose a veteran/star quarterback often "fall off the map" one year later should they have no capable replacement. Illinois failed to cover 4 or their first 6 last year after losing Kurt Kittner.
-Texas Tech Kliff Kingsbury won't be easily replaced and could stagger a bit the first part of the season.
-Marshall Byron Leftwich is gone to the NFL, but the Thundering Herd does have a highly regarded replacement in Stan Hill, but still might take a while to get rolling.
-USC Losing Heisman Trophy-winning QB Carson Palmer will hurt alot and USC could struggle in the first part of the season.
There might be other teams to add to these lists, but these were the teams that were in the article written last January. These theories should be looked at strongly at the beginning of the year and could prove to be profitable for the duration.
Good Luck
__________________
