Cruz is a nice longshot pick and I certainly have him as a big possibility to hit the board but he is anything but a handout.
This horse was a claimer, so he obviously doesnt pass all the physical tests the normal Grade 1 thoroughbred does.
His closing effort is nice, but if he takes that same route he will be 30 lengths back and have A LOT more left to do than he ever has before. He has never, ever closed down a horse with the speed of Social Inclusion.
His most recent effort is actually more impressive than the race you linked. The fact he was able to pass anyone in a crawl of a race was a very nice effort. But like I said, if he takes the route he did in the Laurel race where he was 17 lengths back of mediocre horses, he is going to find himself 30 lengths off the lead of Social Inclusion and whoever else is up front. If he wants to stay closer, he is going to have to use more energy, possibly leaving less for his late kick.
Linda Rice has had him ready to go in all of his starts, so the physical aspect is less worrying. There is a bounce factor obviously, but her barn has been hot the last 90 days.
Not trying to knock you off your play and I certainly like Cruz a lot myself, but like any horse in here he has some big flaws that could be exposed.
Another thing to note is how the track has been playing. So far it looks like speed is holding extremely well, although it is very early. Interesting to see what they do with the track throughout the day and if they try to make it more "fair". I will be paying close attention to this because I, like you, like what Cruz brings in a race that looks to be dominated by speed.
One thing is for sure though, I will certainly be trying to beat Cali Chrome in most of my bets. The odds on preakness favorite hasnt faired extremely well over the years, something like 2 for 8.
