Kings/Blazers - 3/12/04

[Eugene Michaels]

KINGS/BLAZERS OVER 192 - Personally, I am a bit surprised that this total is not closer to 200. The Kings have gone well over 100 points in each of the last 5 head-to-head meetings between these teams, while the Blazers went over 100 points in 4 of those games and scored 98 in the other! These clubs have met 3 times this season, and the final scores have been 112-110, 117-98, and 109-104 respectively. As if that is not enough, the Sacramento offense is in its usual high-octane mode, averaging 107.7 points per game in their last 7 games overall including that 120-point explosion vs. Dallas last night. Yes the Blazers have gone Under in 5 straight games, and that is apparently the main reason why this total is not higher. However, Sacramento has always dictated the tempo when these clubs get together, and I do not expect tonight to be any different.

 

[Nolan Dalla]

Good post.

This number also caught my attention. seeming at least 5-6 points too low. One of the things that I think should be looked out when identifying a total is weighing the chance that the game goes away from the number, by increments of 5, 10, 15, 20 points etc.

In other words, based on the total at 192 -- is it more likely the actual total will end up at 187 or 197? 182 or 202? 177 or 207? 172 or 212?

I think in each of these options, the more persuasive argument is that the higher total has a better chance of cashing. It's hard to see good shooting, Western Conference teams playing in the 170s. Add Sacramento's slight possible fatigue (weaker defense) and this adds to Portland's scoring potential.

Therefore, I am in agreement that the 192 number looks to be too low and merits a play on the OVER in tonight's game.

In examining this game -- one minor irritant does come up: Sacramento crushed the number last night, but that was AT HOME, AGAINST DALLAS. The Mavericks are a horrific defensive team and Portland will certainly be a more formidable opponent. The good thing to counter this is -- recent history shows that Portland likes to get into shootouts with the Kings, and there is no compelling reason to expect the Blazers to now suddenly prioritize defense.

Hope this adds to your argument.

Good luck,


Nolan Dalla