KSA 9/20 BASEBALL

[KRISAMANDA]

went 0-1-1875 yest.
2nd straight losing day



so now at 146-93+37,195



tonight playing these
both of these plays have been very strong all year
last few weeks of season can be tough, motivation questionable from team to team.
sticking with only teams that have realistic playoff chances atleast we know we are getting full effort, but that can work both ways as some teams just cant handle the pressure. weve all seen teams that need to win lose to scrub teams so im backing 2 teams that need to win and they are in a strong situation tonight.



tbay-180 1800/1000


stlouis-170 1700/1000



have a winning night madjackers
ksa

 

[Bradjmad22]

Good luck KSA. I will be tailing on both but I have one question-; when playing such highly juiced favs, have you ever thought about parlaying them for like $1000 to win $1450 instead of playing both straight? The reason I ask, is because if one of them lose, you'll still be -700/-800. I was just wondering your thoughts on the risk vs reward because I'm playing both myself. Thanks in advance- you're one of the best on here and I just wanted to know your opinion

 

[KRISAMANDA]

hey brad,

looking at it your way, i with some quick math i would need to risk a litle over 1400 on a parlay to win 2000.
which in the case of a split i lose 1400 vs. 700 or 800 playing straight.
of course im also risking much more playing straight to win 2000. risking 3500.
the only benefit i see to play the parlay would be if we went 0-2. then we would save the extra 2100 if we played straight.
my way of thining is, i like to keep all my risk very close. if you watch the amounts i play this year most of the time my risk for all my plays is usually very close .
i look at as this way, based on the strength of the angles these 2 plays are on tonight. im looking it as the worst case scenario woulld be a split.
in the split scenario, then playing each straight is the smarter way to play to win 2000.
straight plays i lose 700 or 800. vs. losing 1400 by playing parlay.
im confident based on how these angles have done this year that 0-2 the least likely to happen.
of course, 0-2 can happen and ill take my lumps if it does and move on.

sorry im writing this quick and im not the best typer.

lets getem both in and we be happy either way.
ksa

 

[harrykeys]

That is exactly right....there is no right or wrong in the applied play.....If one goes the route of the Parlay you have reduced your exposure and also reduced your return if both win.....your reward for taking less is that if both go down you will now save on not paying the double juice.
The usual determination becomes the strenth (or belief) in the play of two strong chalk of the odds in favor of both not going down.So with a sound fundamental choice of the 2 plays the maker of such play will usually be better in taking both his/her selections separate. Gl Guy

It should be noted that if one is not the writer of the bet, then the "insurance policy to cover the win" the parlay becomes a strong tool.

Forgot. Nice capping Great job

 

[Bradjmad22]

Thanks man, I appreciate it. My bankroll isn't nearly the size of yours, so for me the parlay made sense. $350 straight, vs $255 to win $350 on the parlay. I figured, worse case scenario, I lose the $255 but split would only lose $70-$80 and it's really not that big of a difference ($180). If I played your amounts, I prolly would do them straight up. Hopefully it's 2-0 and we both cash big- but either way, thanks for the response and good luck tonight!

 

[aztec warrior]

Good stuff right here.have been following awhile and often face similar situations.went with parlay and straight.aloha and mahalos for the outstanding capping.

 

[KRISAMANDA]

thanks harrykeys your answer was alot better explained than mine. haha
but like you said we could go either way with the big favs.

i got little flu or something and got my plays in earlier then fell asleep from bout 6pm and just woke up. so i missed the all the drama in our 2 plays. both extra inning winners with blown leads and runners left in scoring position.
glad i missed it all and they both came thru.
now im up at 3am cant sleep. wtf.

i went back thru all plays for the month of sept.
and the big favs. have been our best money producer.
heres the break down of plays based at 100 per play

dogs 5-4+235

favs-110 to -135 14-10+200

favs-140 to 165 9-5+135

favs -170+ 10-0+1000

totals 38-19+1570


like you said we could go either way with the big favs. but i like playing them straight the 0-2 probability is very unlikely as you can see in sept. results.
the angles i use for baseball in most cases put me on the fav. especially the road fav.
im usually on the better team in a situation where they have a huge momentum advantage.
road favs. in baseball i think are hidden gem.
with road favs. we are always on the better team at a reduced price due to our team is on road.
the home advantage factor i think is minimized in baseball more than in any other sport.
just a quick recent road fav. example.
cinn. at houston.
cin.swept the series at these prices
-190 -185 -150
cueto and leake should be 3-1 favs. over hou. if at home.is hou. home advantage worth .50 to 1.00 vs. the reds.besides the huge pitching edge the reds. have better players at every positon on the field.

it seems that the consensus i pick up on here is that you cant win betting baseball if you bet favs.
the main thing is getting the win. i hear alt of talk about value,theres no value in picking a loser and it shouldnt make you feel better that you lost with a dog play.if you try and use this simple concept winning teams find ways to win. losing teams find ways to lose. so dont be afriad to play favs. i think theres money to be made if you pick the right spots.




well baseball is winding down. lets hopefuly get a few more wins before reg. season ends.playoffs may have a few plays here and there. everything i use is based on back to back momentum. with days off in between games in playoffs that limits plays for me.football is here with baskets right arouund the corner.
ksa

 

[aztec warrior]

Appreciate all da hard work and here's to continued success my bruddah.mahalos for the breakdown,I'm gonna use it.aloha

 

[comfortable1]

Good stuff... thanks again:0008

 

[Bradjmad22]

KSA- you the man!!! Huge night for me because I parlayed the two! Just wanted to tell you thanks for everything

 

[harrykeys]

Hey There Krisamanda....No it is you the "writer" who has complete control of the placement of two chalk plays.and explained your postion perfectly...and in your case one can look in any flavor pudding...and find the "proof"haha.....Once again hats of to you for such a fine run in the bases.
(now get some of that off the table) best to you guy

Forgot: Hope you are feeling a bit better today with that flu stuff

 

[Four Corners]

Kris...THnaks for the blowout wins last night :mj07: THanks for all you do for the sight. If I read you correctly, you feel baseball is the least difficlt sport to cap. Is that correct? Just curious how you have done historically in the other sports vs. MLB. Again, thanks for solid work here in MLB:0074