Now the major preps are all concluded. The Lexington still has to be run but I doubt any major contenders come out of there. I've got a future bet on Buddha at 14-1 so I'm rooting for him but I think I've found a sleeper in Essence of Dubai. He won a 2YO stake at SA last fall at 1 mile coming from off the pace. He beat a horse called Ibn Al Haitham that day and another stakes winner named Roman Dancer was 3rd in that race. E of D faced Ibn Al Haitham again recently, halfway around the world in Dubai and beat him once again, this time at 1 1/4 miles. He's the only horse in the Derby who will have won at 10 furlongs; he's the legit closer in a race where most of the main contenders are speed horses or pace pressers.
Ky Derby
- Thread starter Valuist
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I sort of thought quite highly of him also. But one thing that scares me off is I don`t recall any horse returning from Dubai and winning their next race in the U.S.A. regardless of how much rest they have had. Seems like a JINX.
You know of any?
Good luck in the big three.
Skanoochies.
You know of any?
Good luck in the big three.
Skanoochies.
It hasn't been easy on horses, but I read Wesley Ward is sending out a 9 YO named Men's Exclusive for a Cal-bred stake this weekend and he raced in Dubai on May 23. He said the horse didn't seem to be bothered by the travel and that's a 9 YO. The majority have had problems coming from there but the sample size isn't too big. We've often seen horses come over from France or the U.K. and run a great race right away.
Lukas is an idiot. And an egomaniac. He wins the Lexington with Proud Citizen and now he's off to the Derby saying this is "just like Charismatic 3 years ago." I totally disagree. Proud Citizen had the perfect trip on Saturday, setting a slow pace on a good rail while the other speed horse (Ethan Man) showed no interest in running at all. Under the circumstances, he almost had to run big. When Charismatic won the Lexington 3 years ago, he had a powerful move wide on the turn and left little doubt he was the best horse in that race. The same cannot be said for Proud Citizen.
Hi Valuist, I was wondering if you had any idea of how the horses ran this weekend, that had their last races in Dubai? I believe there was two running in different scenarios. I had to work all weekend and didn`t catch the results.
Thanx if you can help!
Skanoochies.
Thanx if you can help!
Skanoochies.
I thought the Dubai-based horses have been in Kentucky for several days now. I know they had Essence of Dubai and Castle Gandolpho quarantined the other day at CD. As far as I know, all the preps are concluded, unless somebody from the Derby Trial decides to enter at the last minute.
The Dubai horses historically haven't done well in the Derby but some of them were overmatched to begin with. I don't think that's the case with E of D. Everyone (myself included) had written off Johannesburg since it looked like Arazi all over again. But at some price point, he becomes bettable. I can't bet him at 5-1 but is he playable at 12-1 or 15-1?? Maybe.
After looking at the chart for the Wood, I'm not sure the pace was that fast. The fractional times appear fast but further evidence shows that could be misleading:
1. Buddha and Medaglio D'Oro basically ran 1-2 around the track the whole race and Sunday Break was in 3rd the whole race. If the pace was truly fast, this likely would not happen.
2. Plodders like Blue Burner and Saarland were never more than 5 lengths from the lead. In the Florida Derby which had a legitimate fast pace, Blue Burner was 15 lengths off the lead. If the pace in the Wood was on the slow side as I suspect, Saarland's race must be upgraded; and Buddha and M' D'oro must be downgraded, at least a little.
The Dubai horses historically haven't done well in the Derby but some of them were overmatched to begin with. I don't think that's the case with E of D. Everyone (myself included) had written off Johannesburg since it looked like Arazi all over again. But at some price point, he becomes bettable. I can't bet him at 5-1 but is he playable at 12-1 or 15-1?? Maybe.
After looking at the chart for the Wood, I'm not sure the pace was that fast. The fractional times appear fast but further evidence shows that could be misleading:
1. Buddha and Medaglio D'Oro basically ran 1-2 around the track the whole race and Sunday Break was in 3rd the whole race. If the pace was truly fast, this likely would not happen.
2. Plodders like Blue Burner and Saarland were never more than 5 lengths from the lead. In the Florida Derby which had a legitimate fast pace, Blue Burner was 15 lengths off the lead. If the pace in the Wood was on the slow side as I suspect, Saarland's race must be upgraded; and Buddha and M' D'oro must be downgraded, at least a little.
I agree. Remember last year with Monarchos. He ran in the rear couldn`t dint the pace horse either. But I read where ward said before the Derby, it was mainly a race to build a foundation in him to set him up for the big one.
Deja Vu?
Keep up the info, we still got 10 days.
Good luck, Skanoochies.
Deja Vu?
Keep up the info, we still got 10 days.
Good luck, Skanoochies.
