If the Lafayette College men's basketball team were to do the impossible Thursday night and beat Villanova, would it be the biggest upset in NCAA tournament history?
The 16th seed Leopards are listed as a 22.5 point underdog against the top-seed Wildcats. Granted, there have been bigger betting lines in the history of the NCAA tournament. Kentucky, for example, is anywhere from a 31- to a 34-point favorite tonight over Hampton.
Considering no 16 seed has ever beaten a No. 1, that in itself could qualify as the biggest upset ever.
On top of that, consider that Villanova (32-2) is an extremely deep and talented team. Lafayette (20-12), on the other hand, Lafayette was a pedestrian 9-9 in Patriot League games and was only the fourth seed when the non-power conference held its postseason tournament.
Therefore, a Lafayette victory over 'Nova would at least be in the conversation among the biggest upsets in NCAA history.
On paper, the Leopards have little to no chance. But strange, unforeseen things happen every year in this tournament.
The law of averages would indicate that someday a 16 seed will shock the world and beat a top seed. It probably won't happen when Lafayette plays Villanova at 6:50 tonight at the CONSOL Energy Center in Pittsburgh.
But if Villanova winning was a sure thing, why even bother to play the game?
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The Leopards have won five of their past six games heading into the Big Dance, capped by a 65-63 victory against the American Eagles as four-point favorites in the Patriot League title game. Despite failing to cover the spread in the win over American, Lafayette beat the number in its previous two conference tourney games, including an 89-64 rout of the Boston Terriers as four-point favorites on March 5.
The Leopards have not made the NCAA tournament since 2000, when they were a No. 15 seed and got blown out by the second-seeded Temple Owls 73-47 as 21-point underdogs. That was obviously long ago, and this Lafayette team will be excited to have a shot at hanging with Villanova, no matter the seeding.
The Wildcats are one of the hottest teams in the entire tournament, which is why they ended up earning a No. 1 seed over other top contenders from bigger conferences such as the Pac-12?s Arizona Wildcats and the ACC?s Virginia Cavaliers.
And outside of a close 63-61 win over the defending Big East champion Providence Friars in the tournament semifinals this year, Villanova has not just been getting by either. The Wildcats have absolutely dominated opponents during their winning streak, with 11 of the 15 victories having been decided by 11 points or more.
They were a No. 2 seed last year when they lost to the eventual national champions, the seventh-seeded Connecticut Huskies, 77-65 as 4.5-point favorites. But in the round of 64, Villanova had no trouble disposing of the 15th-seeded Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers 73-53 to cover the spread as a 16.5-point favorite.
The Wildcats are coming out of a much weaker Big East than in years past, and that will probably catch up to them at some point in the NCAA tournament when they have to play better competition. Granted, the Leopards do not pose much of a challenge on paper, but Villanova has gone only 1-6 ATS in its past seven games in the Big Dance, also losing three of its past four straight up when favored in the tournament.
The Wildcats will most likely win this game, like every other No. 1 seed before them, but that does not mean they will cover the spread. Top seeds are just 2-6 ATS in the second round over the past two years combined, with three No. 16 seeds staying within 12 points in 2014.
The 16th seed Leopards are listed as a 22.5 point underdog against the top-seed Wildcats. Granted, there have been bigger betting lines in the history of the NCAA tournament. Kentucky, for example, is anywhere from a 31- to a 34-point favorite tonight over Hampton.
Considering no 16 seed has ever beaten a No. 1, that in itself could qualify as the biggest upset ever.
On top of that, consider that Villanova (32-2) is an extremely deep and talented team. Lafayette (20-12), on the other hand, Lafayette was a pedestrian 9-9 in Patriot League games and was only the fourth seed when the non-power conference held its postseason tournament.
Therefore, a Lafayette victory over 'Nova would at least be in the conversation among the biggest upsets in NCAA history.
On paper, the Leopards have little to no chance. But strange, unforeseen things happen every year in this tournament.
The law of averages would indicate that someday a 16 seed will shock the world and beat a top seed. It probably won't happen when Lafayette plays Villanova at 6:50 tonight at the CONSOL Energy Center in Pittsburgh.
But if Villanova winning was a sure thing, why even bother to play the game?
__________________
The Leopards have won five of their past six games heading into the Big Dance, capped by a 65-63 victory against the American Eagles as four-point favorites in the Patriot League title game. Despite failing to cover the spread in the win over American, Lafayette beat the number in its previous two conference tourney games, including an 89-64 rout of the Boston Terriers as four-point favorites on March 5.
The Leopards have not made the NCAA tournament since 2000, when they were a No. 15 seed and got blown out by the second-seeded Temple Owls 73-47 as 21-point underdogs. That was obviously long ago, and this Lafayette team will be excited to have a shot at hanging with Villanova, no matter the seeding.
The Wildcats are one of the hottest teams in the entire tournament, which is why they ended up earning a No. 1 seed over other top contenders from bigger conferences such as the Pac-12?s Arizona Wildcats and the ACC?s Virginia Cavaliers.
And outside of a close 63-61 win over the defending Big East champion Providence Friars in the tournament semifinals this year, Villanova has not just been getting by either. The Wildcats have absolutely dominated opponents during their winning streak, with 11 of the 15 victories having been decided by 11 points or more.
They were a No. 2 seed last year when they lost to the eventual national champions, the seventh-seeded Connecticut Huskies, 77-65 as 4.5-point favorites. But in the round of 64, Villanova had no trouble disposing of the 15th-seeded Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers 73-53 to cover the spread as a 16.5-point favorite.
The Wildcats are coming out of a much weaker Big East than in years past, and that will probably catch up to them at some point in the NCAA tournament when they have to play better competition. Granted, the Leopards do not pose much of a challenge on paper, but Villanova has gone only 1-6 ATS in its past seven games in the Big Dance, also losing three of its past four straight up when favored in the tournament.
The Wildcats will most likely win this game, like every other No. 1 seed before them, but that does not mean they will cover the spread. Top seeds are just 2-6 ATS in the second round over the past two years combined, with three No. 16 seeds staying within 12 points in 2014.
