I have decided that I like the way I posted last week. I am not going to post race win odds, on what I bet. Books vary so much in their odds, that is is virtually pointless. I will post my Top 8 drivers, in order of preference. Then I will post my selections, for most overrated and underrated drivers for the week. I will post matchup selections that I am playing, but since most books, dont offer the same matchups, you can use the overrated and underrated selctions, to make your own decisions on matchups at your book.
This race is kinda hard to handicap. There are your drivers that are way better than the field in this race, but the ultimate goal in this race that may be a factor is fuel mileage. This race has been known to be boring in the past. It has long runs under green, with the field getting spread out as the day goes on. You will see different scenarios take place due to pit stops. The winner of this race usually has a solid pit crew.
With the one engine rule, some teams may have been taking it easy in practice, so unfortunatly, happy hour times, are not as important as in the past. But you can look at the morning practice sessions, and compare them to the happy hour times, and get a good idea of what teams made favorable changes, etc.
The 2001 race winner, Jeff Gordon is always a good play, and will probably be about 5-1 in about every race this year. If this race is run 5 times, he wins at least once. So not a bad bet. Jeff burton is great at this track. In fact all of the roush cars run great at this track. Burton is starting way in the back, which always can lead to an accident, or eventually, engine failure. At 5-1, he may be a tiny bit overrated. Mark Martin runs great at this track. At 6-1, I prolly wont touch him, but he has 4 top 10 finishes here in 4 attempts, and may be a good selecton to parlay some matchups with. Kurt Busch is a car that has been the best so far of the Roush cars, and he he the least valued as far as the odds go. I have him at 13-1, and that is fairly decent. Todd Bodine is just plain fast. Some may laugh at the pick, but he finished 5th here last year. He is starting on the pole, and was one of the top 1o fastest in both saturday practice sessions. If Todd can stay out of trouble, and keep from blowing his engine up. He WILL be there in the end today. Unfortunatly, this is Todd Bodine we are talking about, and bad luck follows him. Kevin Harvick has been steady all week as well. he is hovering around that 10th fastest spot in practice, and hasnt made any adjustments to his car. I look for him to make a good run today, and at 20-1, I will be placing some money on him. I am not a big fan over the Pontiacs this week as they just dont have the downforce needed to keep up with the Fords and Dodges. If I had to pick one Pontiac this week, it would be Johnny Benson. He has finished 4th, 4th, and 6th, in 3 of the 4 races here. he has said that he loves this acetrack because it requires finesse, and those are the tracks that he likes. He may be worth a shot in some matchups. Another car that has been extremely fast this week, is Ryan newman. This kid is for real. He is going to be the next huge star in nascar, and he has an excellent shot at winning this race. He has about the 3rd best car out there, and if he catches a few breaks, he will win this thing. So here we go...
Teases Top 8
Jeff Gordon
Jeff Burton
Ryan Newman
Kurt Busch
Mark Martin
Todd Bodine
Johnny Benson
Kevin Harvick
here are some matchups that i like
j burton over jeff gordon at +115 (strictly on value)
busch over kenseth -115
ward burton over rudd EVEN
hamilton over craven +180 (hamilton has stunk it up, but these odds are ridiculous)
nadeau over robby gordon +125
buckshot jones over petty +125 (I like both of these guys as underrated, but i will take the odds)
T labonte over mayfield +160 (again too much value)
atwood over blaney +150
OVERRATED DRIVERS
Tony Stewart
Bobby Labonte
mark Martin (he is good, but this is still mark martin)
DAle Jarrett
Dale JR
UNDERRATED DRIVERS
Buckshot Jones
Kyle Petty
Todd Bodine
Kurt Busch
Kevin Harvick
good luck out there
This race is kinda hard to handicap. There are your drivers that are way better than the field in this race, but the ultimate goal in this race that may be a factor is fuel mileage. This race has been known to be boring in the past. It has long runs under green, with the field getting spread out as the day goes on. You will see different scenarios take place due to pit stops. The winner of this race usually has a solid pit crew.
With the one engine rule, some teams may have been taking it easy in practice, so unfortunatly, happy hour times, are not as important as in the past. But you can look at the morning practice sessions, and compare them to the happy hour times, and get a good idea of what teams made favorable changes, etc.
The 2001 race winner, Jeff Gordon is always a good play, and will probably be about 5-1 in about every race this year. If this race is run 5 times, he wins at least once. So not a bad bet. Jeff burton is great at this track. In fact all of the roush cars run great at this track. Burton is starting way in the back, which always can lead to an accident, or eventually, engine failure. At 5-1, he may be a tiny bit overrated. Mark Martin runs great at this track. At 6-1, I prolly wont touch him, but he has 4 top 10 finishes here in 4 attempts, and may be a good selecton to parlay some matchups with. Kurt Busch is a car that has been the best so far of the Roush cars, and he he the least valued as far as the odds go. I have him at 13-1, and that is fairly decent. Todd Bodine is just plain fast. Some may laugh at the pick, but he finished 5th here last year. He is starting on the pole, and was one of the top 1o fastest in both saturday practice sessions. If Todd can stay out of trouble, and keep from blowing his engine up. He WILL be there in the end today. Unfortunatly, this is Todd Bodine we are talking about, and bad luck follows him. Kevin Harvick has been steady all week as well. he is hovering around that 10th fastest spot in practice, and hasnt made any adjustments to his car. I look for him to make a good run today, and at 20-1, I will be placing some money on him. I am not a big fan over the Pontiacs this week as they just dont have the downforce needed to keep up with the Fords and Dodges. If I had to pick one Pontiac this week, it would be Johnny Benson. He has finished 4th, 4th, and 6th, in 3 of the 4 races here. he has said that he loves this acetrack because it requires finesse, and those are the tracks that he likes. He may be worth a shot in some matchups. Another car that has been extremely fast this week, is Ryan newman. This kid is for real. He is going to be the next huge star in nascar, and he has an excellent shot at winning this race. He has about the 3rd best car out there, and if he catches a few breaks, he will win this thing. So here we go...
Teases Top 8
Jeff Gordon
Jeff Burton
Ryan Newman
Kurt Busch
Mark Martin
Todd Bodine
Johnny Benson
Kevin Harvick
here are some matchups that i like
j burton over jeff gordon at +115 (strictly on value)
busch over kenseth -115
ward burton over rudd EVEN
hamilton over craven +180 (hamilton has stunk it up, but these odds are ridiculous)
nadeau over robby gordon +125
buckshot jones over petty +125 (I like both of these guys as underrated, but i will take the odds)
T labonte over mayfield +160 (again too much value)
atwood over blaney +150
OVERRATED DRIVERS
Tony Stewart
Bobby Labonte
mark Martin (he is good, but this is still mark martin)
DAle Jarrett
Dale JR
UNDERRATED DRIVERS
Buckshot Jones
Kyle Petty
Todd Bodine
Kurt Busch
Kevin Harvick
good luck out there
