Last Man Standing/Suicide pool dilemma

[Valuist]

Teams used: Miami, San Diego, Denver, Philly, Indy, Tampa Bay, St. Louis and Buffalo

Options: Green Bay--like them IF Favre starts but if he doesn't or goes out of the game early, it could be very risky. I have no trust in Doug Peterson. Weather might help GB here.

Atlanta--think they are a good solid team but Vick is questionable. I do think Doug Johnson is a much better backup than Peterson is for GB. I like the fact Ray Lewis is out for Balt.

Pittsburgh--they're rolling now but not crazy about taking a road team.

San Fran--Oakland is struggling right now.

Cincy???-This one takes some nads. They were wrongfully denied a win last Sunday and this is going to be their best shot at a win. Hou may be a little full of themselves after winning their second game.

Curious to hear some thoughts on these.

 

[TheShrimp]

I think ATL is your best choice by far. B-more can still put it together, but this last weekend they really showed their true colors. They're not as good as they looked against CLE and DEN.

Ray Lewis is probably out for the season. He's definitely out this weekend.

Might be a big letdown spot for ATL and I don't like them laying points, but for a survivor pool I think they're the best choice out there.

Use GB the week after when they have Det at home. Or even TENN as they will have HOU at home.

 

[Valuist]

Shrimp--

Good point about saving GB, although I have to get thru this week first. Until I know more about Favre's status, have to lean toward Atlanta.

 

[TheShrimp]

Even with favre playing, I like atl over baltimore more than gb over miami.

GB's 'D' is still dinged up. I look for Miami to really take advantage.

Besides, atl is at PITT, then has NO if I'm not mistaken. You won't get a better chance to use this quality team.

B-Mo hung with Indy on the road, but ATL is better than INDY and B-mo has Redman hurt, too. For my money, ATL is the play, but of course...any given sunday.

 

[redking]

It's either San Fran or Cincy. Save Pittsburgh until they're at home and/or they get "The Bus" back.

San Fran - their defense isn't that great because it's young, but they do have some playmakers. Raiders will have trouble running the ball again. Special teams aren't so special without Kirby. Rookie Buchanon is out and dunno status of Charles Woodson but I don't think he's playing. Not many more changes to go against the Raiders until CWood comes back.

Owens, Streets, Stokes, Barlow, Hearst will have a field day against the weakened Oak secondary.

This might be Cincy's best chance at a win this season. NFL teams do have some pride and nobody wants to lose to an expansion team. Houston's line is really weak and Cincy's defense is very ferocious. One hard hit could stun rookie Carr and take him out of the game. Kitna showed some signs of effectiveness at QB going 17/23 for 193 yards, 2 TDs and no picks. Bungals LT Levi Jones is a rookie and will get better with more playing time. Which should lead to better protection for Kitna and more holes for Corey Dillon. Dillon is a very under-rated back. Top 3 IMHO. He'd be a superstar if he didnt play for the Bungals.

I think you could take the Bungals as a solid risk this week and saving the better teams for other weeks. But if you want a pretty solid pick take the Niners.

 

[GM]

Same dilemma here Valuist, though I think I am in a worse spot than you. I've used 8 teams and ALL 8 of them are playing and favored this week! Sheeeesh! That really limits my options!

I have already used Atlanta if you can believe it, so that is out. I've also used GB, though I really don't trust 'em and doubt I'd use them against a quality defence like Miami anyways. So that option is out. I've already bet Miami +4?, I like that pick quite a bit.

You used: Mia, SD, Den, Phil, Indy, TB, StL, Buf
I've used: Oak, SD, Atl, Phil, Indy, TB, GB, Buf

(just writing it out so I can see the differences in front of me)

My thoughts:

Hou/Cin - This is just far too risky taking either team. I would stay a mile away from this total gamble.

Oak/SF - I don't have Oak available to me. I see you're considering taking SF, a 3-pt road dog. That sounds just a little too dangerous to me. Oak will not stay down forever. I will definitely not go with SF, personally.

Atl/Balt - I don't have Atl available. If Ray Lewis is out, ya, I guess I could see you taking Atl, but both these teams are pretty inconsistent.

Pitt/Clev - Right now I am leaning towards taking Pitt. They're a different team with Maddox at the helm. Like you, I don't like taking road teams ever, but my options are VERY limited so I may have to go this route. I don't like the fact it's a divisional game and there's a chance Clev could jump up and put a bite on the Steelers.

StL/Ariz - You don't have StL available, but for me StL is my other option right now. Another road team. Not crazy about this pick. Is StL really back in the groove, or was it just temporary?

One you didn't mention....Det/Dal - Lions are playing better now. Dallas letdown after the whole Emmitt thing this weekend? This really looks like a game Detroit can win to me.

I don't like anything in NYG/Jax or Sea/Wash.

Down to just 4 ppl left in my pool and as I see it this is THE key week.

Good luck, let us know what you decide.

 

[Valuist]

Pittsburgh is really tempting to take, even on the road. This team is now playing at the level that was expected before the season. They've got the pass defense thing figured out now; opposing QBs rating only 70.5; they run the ball, stop it and Maddox is looking like a very legit QB. Only negative is this is a big rivalry game; As for SF, I'd definitely am considering them. Oakland looks to have been figured out. Still undecided at this point.

 

[greed]

Take Green Bay

Take Green Bay

Favre is healthy and ready to go. Sharper and Mckenzie will be back Anderson has played better than Edwards who he replaced at safety. Favre in his ten years in Green Bay has lost only 12 games at home. Plus the weather in Green Bay should be very cold another big advantage. Miami is without Gadsen and I am not sure about Chambers. Being a survivor pool I would worry about winning this week and not looking ahead to the following week. I'm not sure about this but I don't think Favre has ever lost a game when it is under freezing tempatures. I am not stating it is a lock but I like my odds with Favre at home in the cold.

 

[Billy]

I don't think you can go wrong with either Pitt or Atl.......
with lewis out of the defence and redman out at qb, well you saw
what it did last weekend.......
ever since stewart was replaced, pitt is the same ol team, kickin
ass.....and cleve may have pulled one out last week, (jets????),
but they are beat up and will get a good old fassioned ass
woopin this week..........JMHO.......GL......... ......BTW, what is the
status on redman........:shrug:


just went to bubba's forum......redman out, atl all the way
especially in the dome........BIG.....I MEAN BIG........

 

[TheShrimp]

Pitt is on the road in a divisional matchup, against a team with good D who almost beat them at home. Yes, PITT is back on track, but there are a lot of risks with this one.

GB is playing MIAMI. Miami is probably better than GB, has already won big road games this year. And, while Favre is playing, I doubt he's 100%. Besides, DET is at GB next week, and that's a GREAT time to use them.

ATL is at home, favored by more than either of these two teams, and is playing the 3-4 ravens who are 1-2 without RL, the win coming against JAX at home. In addition, ATL is at PITT next week, so you can' use them next week. And they're at CARO the next week. Without RL, I don't know how the Ravens contain Vick.

ATL this week
DET @ GB in week 10
????? in week 11.
CIN @ PITT in week 12.

This leaves you vulnerable in week 11. MAYBE you could use CIN at home against CLE. You'll have KC at home against BUFF, and DET at home against NYJ.

I still think ATL is the play this week. GL with whatever you go with.

 

[Valuist]

I'm off Pitt. Not because of Cleve's D, which I don't feel is strong (4.5 ypc against rush D; pass D is okay), but because of the divisional revenge and the fact its Pittsburgh's 4th road game in 5 weeks; its one thing to take a road team in one of these pools but when they are in their 4th road game in 5 weeks thats asking for trouble.

As for Green Bay, the pass defense they will face will be light years better than the three (stooges) rivals in their division that they've faced.

I'm on Atlanta.

 

[Strictly Int'l]

Take Cincy or GB (even w/ Pederson)

Cleveland I think is an upset waiting to happen it is just meant to be Pittsburgh rolling in to Cleveland, but Clev has played tough all year, one of my favorites-a home dog.


I feel Oakland will also bounce back and the Ravens will cause a lot of trouble for Atlanta.

Just my thoughts, hopefully they help.

 

[GM]

Don't you think taking a winless team in a suicide pool is asking for it? They haven't proven they can beat ANYONE. I mean, they COULD win this game...but geez...the idea is to stay alive.

There are 17 weeks in the season. If by some miracle the pool goes all the way til the end, that still means there are 15 teams you never use. So there's never any reason to take a team that is this bad. Hardly ever a reason to take a sub-.500 team even.

 

[HeadHunter]

eliminator

eliminator

i have used:
Philadelphia
Indianapolis
Buffalo
GB
San Fran

Atlanta this week
(we started late)

can we make this a regular thread??
mm

 

[Valuist]

Taking Atlanta in the pool but betting Baltimore +7.5. I am expecting a fairly low scoring game and Balty's D is good enough to stay within two scores, IMO. Turnovers were the killer last week.

 

[bandits]

Atlanta or Green Bay look solid here. Favor G.B.( if Favre plays) . One thing to be cautious about is DO NOT worry about next week. You have to survive today.

 

[pghpounder]

I have posted 2 or 3 survivor picks when people have asked on here and so far I havent been wrong so that is why i am posting now.

I dont like the SF pick. OAK will win the game outright and if not will definitely cover.

If I were you I would go with Pittsburgh or JAX.

Good Luck

 

[Desert Scrub]

Here's how I would play it:

Week 9 - Pittsburgh (Team on a solid role- theyre not at home but I'm putting my money on them this week)

Week 10 - Baltimore (home vs Cincy) or Tennessee (home vs Houston). I would lean to Tennessee.

Week 11 - Jacksonville ( they will definitely beat Houston in a revenge game)

Week 12 - New Orleans (at home vs the Browns)

This would all depend obviously on what happens each week with injuries, etc but this is how I could see you playing it. The thing with the suicide pools is always the most obvious play is what kills most people. That to me would be Atlanta this week. They whooped up on Carolina and then a dramatic win at New Orleans means they should pound Baltimore right? I hate those too good to be true scenerios. Baltimore is not a pushover by any means and with Vick not 100% you never know. Although Atlanta is obviously a logical play I would feel more comfortable playing Pittsburgh here.

Just my two cents but good luck with whoever you go with.

 

[Valuist]

Pittsburgh is very sharp right now but there are a number of negatives: 1) I don't like playing road teams in these pools; 2) Pitt is in the unusual scheduling situation of playing their 4th road game in 5 weeks 3) A positive angle for Cleve is the road team who won straight up as a dog and is a home dog in their next game. 4) A big-time divisional rivalry game. These divisional games tend to be played closer than the non-divisional.

 

[Houston]

CINCY??!?!! Are you kidding me?

CINCY??!?!! Are you kidding me?

The two loses Houston have had at home came to 4-3 Indy and 5-3 Buffalo. Noone gives this team any credit but after the Bengals have been running their ass-crack mouths all week, Houston will role today.