Firstly I'll chuck up some trends...Now, not really sure how much stock we can put in these, given it's the last week and there are some funny lines out...
...but there are some very strong calls this week...(and luckily enough, I guess, I do happen to agree with most if not all!
)
1) League: 9-1 ats (av. WIN 4.8) as any dog, off a 21+ ats loss as a 7- fav, if opp is off a 3- ats win. [Pits]
League: 2-12-2 (Av. LOSS 3.4) as a 7- fav, off a 3- SU loss as a 3- 'dog, if opp is off a 10+ ats loss. [Cinci] (0-1 this season)
2 of those games are common, but still a whopping 3-19-2 combined situation favouring the Steelers!
2) League: 6-13-2 (Av. LOSS 3.7) away 3- fav, off any ypset SU win as an away 3+ dog. [Caro]
(2-9-2 (Av. LOSS 6.0) if total is <40)
0-5-1 (Av. LOSS 12.0!) if opp is off any ats win.
3) League: 15-2-2 (Av. win 7.7) home 3- fav, off any ats win as a 7+ fav. [KC]
14-0-2 (Av. win 9.4) if opp was last a fav!
4) League: 7-21-2 (Av. LOSS 2.7) home 3- fav, off a 3- SU win as away 7- dog. [Tenn]
3-11 SU (Av. LOSS 2.6) if opp is off any SU win.
5) League: 22-12-1 (Av. win 5.5) home 3- fav, off a 14+ ats win as away 7- dog. [TB]
9-2-1 (Av. win 8.3) if total <37
6) League: 5-18-1 under (Av. total 39.3...av. score 35.7) as a 7+ fav off a 21+ ats win as a 3+ dog. [Phi] (0-3-1 under this season)
(2-9 under (Av. total 43.4...av. score 39.1) if total >40)
2-11 under (Av. total 40.0...av. score 34.6) if opp is off any ats loss.
7) League: 9-2 over (Av. total 39.4...av. score 50.1!!) away 3- dog, off a 3- ats loss as home 3+ fav, if opp is off any ats loss. [GB]
...also 2-8-1 ats (Av., loss 11.5)...as the team allows 30.8ppg!!
....RIGHT.....
1) Pits +6...Like it alot. A quick look at who the Steelers have been beaten by this season...Jax, Cinci **, Atl, Oak, Denver, Baltimore.
3 of those teams are in the top 4 for total defense. (Denver 14th, Atl 18th, Cinci 28th)...and perhaps more importantly, they ALL (except Cinci) allow 4 ypr or less!
You stop Pittsburgh's running game and make BR throw the ball 30+ times, bad things will happen!
** Now, of course, Cinci have beaten Pittsburgh by 6 back in week 3, but a closer look shows Pits had 27 FD's to 15; 170 rush yards to 87; 195 passing to 159...the killer was FIVE turnovers, as the Steelers blew a 3 point 3/4 time lead.
Cicni allowed over 6.6 ypr last week @ Denver, and have been lucky in their 4 previous wins (Oak, Balt, Celve, NO) to face teams that are all 23rd or worse in ypr!! Pittsburgh are 12th (Denver 9th).
Pittsburgh control this one, and provided they don't give the ball away too many times, are good enough to win this game SU.
2) This one is making me a little nervous. I just don't like seeing so many people on board what seemingly looks such an obvious play (but the line staying put!).
NO allowing 5.1 ypr, which Carolina should be able to take advantage of, considering they ran the ball 50 times last week for 180+ yards!! (Weinke was 4/7 for 32 yards!!!)...now this week with at least some down field threat back (Delhomme will start) and a worse run D!
I mean, we know that Carolina shouldn't be favs here...the whole NEED to win thing, plus NO nothing to play for, but at the same time, they have lost 3 of their last 4 home games, the only win being over SF!...
...just don't know!!
3) KC -2. Like it alot. I said last week how over-rated Jacksonville were. Playing in a Div with 3 of the worst defensive teams has padded their stats all season.
Road wins over Philli, but scored just 13, and Miami (Harrington being replaced this week by Cleo Lemon! Say no more...) and 5 losses to some pretty ordinary teams, Indi, Wash, houston, Buff and Tenn.
KC 5-2 at home with losses to Cinci way back in week 1 (with Green going down during the game), and to a very good Baltimore team...and they are 10-3 ats last 13 home games.
Both teams in the same situation, of having a slim chance to make play-offs, but not really, so I'm just expecting the better team to win. KC.
4) NE +3/ML. Like it lot. I also said last week that the Titans weren't very good...unfortunately I didn't take as much notice as I shuold have of the Bills' run D.
6 straight win by Tenn, and 8 of 10...ALL against really bad run D's!...The exception being a 24-17 home win v. Jax, but a closer look...
...5 FD's to 23!! FIVE!! Rush yards 16/41 to 40/202. Pass 57 to 194!! TOP 15.38 to 44.2!!!
They were lucky enough to get ahead eaerly on an INT return for TD, and then also return a fumble for a TD (83 and 92 yards mind you!)...
...won't happen this week v. the best road team in the NFL.
Tenn has the WORST total D...and NE are 2nd in points allowed...
...The slight danger is Brady might be taken out early to protect his sore shoulder, but Cassel is more than capable as a back up...there's even talk of Testerverde throw a TD pass to keep his streak alive (at least 1 TD pass for the last 19 years!).
NE did lose their last game last year but only by 2, and they won and covered big sreads the two years before that, so I can't see any coasting into the play-offs. ***
5) TB -3. Again, just going with the better team. Seattle allowing 4.6 ypr, so winning on the road has been tough...and they are 1-8-1 ats in their last 10 away from home...which extended to even when they were playing well.
Rattay has looked very good at QB in the last two weeks, and you have to wonder why he hasn't been playing earlier, given the big move to get him in the first place.
Seattle limping into the play-offs at best, losing their last 3, so even if they don't choose to pull starters (they have won their Div) I think they will struggle against a solid Buc's D and a newly energised offense.
One thing we can be sure of is that Gruden will have them ready to play, meaningless game or not.
6) Situation suggests that Philli are winning games with strong D, and Atlanta will struggle to score enough to push this total over...and I think I have to agree. The Falcons have topped 17 just twice in the last 8 weeks...against wo of the worst pass D's in the NFL (Dallas and Wash)...Philli are 3rd best, allowing just 5.8 ypp.
They score just 16 ppg on the road and are 1-6-1 under this season.
Atlanta have a good run D (3.8 ypr), so they should be able to limit Westbrook and contain big plays.
4 meetings since 2003 have all gone easily under this number.
7) Any guesses as to who is the second highest scoring team in the NFL? Chicago, av. 28 ppg...31.7 at home!
You know the defense will score a TD or 2 with Favre flinging balls around, and the Bears D has fallen away late with some crucial injuries, allowing 27, 31 and 21 in the last 3 weeks.
GB have av'd 23 ppg on the road, and I think this one goes over pretty easily.
*** Might even get a 3.5 as people pile on the Titans with news that Brady might be pulled! :SIB
Good Luck all
...but there are some very strong calls this week...(and luckily enough, I guess, I do happen to agree with most if not all!
)1) League: 9-1 ats (av. WIN 4.8) as any dog, off a 21+ ats loss as a 7- fav, if opp is off a 3- ats win. [Pits]
League: 2-12-2 (Av. LOSS 3.4) as a 7- fav, off a 3- SU loss as a 3- 'dog, if opp is off a 10+ ats loss. [Cinci] (0-1 this season)
2 of those games are common, but still a whopping 3-19-2 combined situation favouring the Steelers!
2) League: 6-13-2 (Av. LOSS 3.7) away 3- fav, off any ypset SU win as an away 3+ dog. [Caro]
(2-9-2 (Av. LOSS 6.0) if total is <40)
0-5-1 (Av. LOSS 12.0!) if opp is off any ats win.
3) League: 15-2-2 (Av. win 7.7) home 3- fav, off any ats win as a 7+ fav. [KC]
14-0-2 (Av. win 9.4) if opp was last a fav!
4) League: 7-21-2 (Av. LOSS 2.7) home 3- fav, off a 3- SU win as away 7- dog. [Tenn]
3-11 SU (Av. LOSS 2.6) if opp is off any SU win.
5) League: 22-12-1 (Av. win 5.5) home 3- fav, off a 14+ ats win as away 7- dog. [TB]
9-2-1 (Av. win 8.3) if total <37
6) League: 5-18-1 under (Av. total 39.3...av. score 35.7) as a 7+ fav off a 21+ ats win as a 3+ dog. [Phi] (0-3-1 under this season)
(2-9 under (Av. total 43.4...av. score 39.1) if total >40)
2-11 under (Av. total 40.0...av. score 34.6) if opp is off any ats loss.
7) League: 9-2 over (Av. total 39.4...av. score 50.1!!) away 3- dog, off a 3- ats loss as home 3+ fav, if opp is off any ats loss. [GB]
...also 2-8-1 ats (Av., loss 11.5)...as the team allows 30.8ppg!!
....RIGHT.....
1) Pits +6...Like it alot. A quick look at who the Steelers have been beaten by this season...Jax, Cinci **, Atl, Oak, Denver, Baltimore.
3 of those teams are in the top 4 for total defense. (Denver 14th, Atl 18th, Cinci 28th)...and perhaps more importantly, they ALL (except Cinci) allow 4 ypr or less!
You stop Pittsburgh's running game and make BR throw the ball 30+ times, bad things will happen!
** Now, of course, Cinci have beaten Pittsburgh by 6 back in week 3, but a closer look shows Pits had 27 FD's to 15; 170 rush yards to 87; 195 passing to 159...the killer was FIVE turnovers, as the Steelers blew a 3 point 3/4 time lead.
Cicni allowed over 6.6 ypr last week @ Denver, and have been lucky in their 4 previous wins (Oak, Balt, Celve, NO) to face teams that are all 23rd or worse in ypr!! Pittsburgh are 12th (Denver 9th).
Pittsburgh control this one, and provided they don't give the ball away too many times, are good enough to win this game SU.
2) This one is making me a little nervous. I just don't like seeing so many people on board what seemingly looks such an obvious play (but the line staying put!).
NO allowing 5.1 ypr, which Carolina should be able to take advantage of, considering they ran the ball 50 times last week for 180+ yards!! (Weinke was 4/7 for 32 yards!!!)...now this week with at least some down field threat back (Delhomme will start) and a worse run D!
I mean, we know that Carolina shouldn't be favs here...the whole NEED to win thing, plus NO nothing to play for, but at the same time, they have lost 3 of their last 4 home games, the only win being over SF!...
...just don't know!!
3) KC -2. Like it alot. I said last week how over-rated Jacksonville were. Playing in a Div with 3 of the worst defensive teams has padded their stats all season.
Road wins over Philli, but scored just 13, and Miami (Harrington being replaced this week by Cleo Lemon! Say no more...) and 5 losses to some pretty ordinary teams, Indi, Wash, houston, Buff and Tenn.
KC 5-2 at home with losses to Cinci way back in week 1 (with Green going down during the game), and to a very good Baltimore team...and they are 10-3 ats last 13 home games.
Both teams in the same situation, of having a slim chance to make play-offs, but not really, so I'm just expecting the better team to win. KC.
4) NE +3/ML. Like it lot. I also said last week that the Titans weren't very good...unfortunately I didn't take as much notice as I shuold have of the Bills' run D.
6 straight win by Tenn, and 8 of 10...ALL against really bad run D's!...The exception being a 24-17 home win v. Jax, but a closer look...
...5 FD's to 23!! FIVE!! Rush yards 16/41 to 40/202. Pass 57 to 194!! TOP 15.38 to 44.2!!!
They were lucky enough to get ahead eaerly on an INT return for TD, and then also return a fumble for a TD (83 and 92 yards mind you!)...
...won't happen this week v. the best road team in the NFL.
Tenn has the WORST total D...and NE are 2nd in points allowed...
...The slight danger is Brady might be taken out early to protect his sore shoulder, but Cassel is more than capable as a back up...there's even talk of Testerverde throw a TD pass to keep his streak alive (at least 1 TD pass for the last 19 years!).
NE did lose their last game last year but only by 2, and they won and covered big sreads the two years before that, so I can't see any coasting into the play-offs. ***
5) TB -3. Again, just going with the better team. Seattle allowing 4.6 ypr, so winning on the road has been tough...and they are 1-8-1 ats in their last 10 away from home...which extended to even when they were playing well.
Rattay has looked very good at QB in the last two weeks, and you have to wonder why he hasn't been playing earlier, given the big move to get him in the first place.
Seattle limping into the play-offs at best, losing their last 3, so even if they don't choose to pull starters (they have won their Div) I think they will struggle against a solid Buc's D and a newly energised offense.
One thing we can be sure of is that Gruden will have them ready to play, meaningless game or not.
6) Situation suggests that Philli are winning games with strong D, and Atlanta will struggle to score enough to push this total over...and I think I have to agree. The Falcons have topped 17 just twice in the last 8 weeks...against wo of the worst pass D's in the NFL (Dallas and Wash)...Philli are 3rd best, allowing just 5.8 ypp.
They score just 16 ppg on the road and are 1-6-1 under this season.
Atlanta have a good run D (3.8 ypr), so they should be able to limit Westbrook and contain big plays.
4 meetings since 2003 have all gone easily under this number.
7) Any guesses as to who is the second highest scoring team in the NFL? Chicago, av. 28 ppg...31.7 at home!
You know the defense will score a TD or 2 with Favre flinging balls around, and the Bears D has fallen away late with some crucial injuries, allowing 27, 31 and 21 in the last 3 weeks.
GB have av'd 23 ppg on the road, and I think this one goes over pretty easily.
*** Might even get a 3.5 as people pile on the Titans with news that Brady might be pulled! :SIB
Good Luck all
