Law's Pick 'O the Day-July 17

[thelawguy]

Lackluster performance for me the last few days.
Yesterday 1-1 for -3.9 Units
YTD at MJ's 7-4 for -8.0 Units

I am implimenting a new betting strategy beginning today. Simple really. I will be wagering the same unit amount per game starting at 2 units. Once I move into the plus zone (fingers crossed), I will likely increase the per unit wager.

Like many bettors, I have fallen into the poor money management trap. This allows me to have a winning percentage (which should be profitable) but still lose $$. My plays here at MJ's are a good example of this-- @ 7-4 (63.6%), I am a horrible -8.0 Units. I started off on this site with a 10 Unit play on a -140 fav--translating to a start of -14.00 units. A 1 Unit per play would have yielded me a total of +0.8 Units at my current record (7-4), which is not stellar--but positive--and this run has been betting all favorites as well.

Discipline. Discipline. Discipline. (I must chant this ten times...) I have long since given up my old bad habit of wagering on too many games...and now limit my plays to the one to two 'top' plays. I find I am much happier winning a 'top' early pick, for instance, then winning that one and losing with a late game that I didn't much care for.

So, that said, I would also like to take this opportunity to thank everyone on this site who makes it the successful site it is. Many very solid cappers who offer excellent insight and information. I hope that I can contribute as well. Special thanks to those who I have been following on a regular basis and who provide nothing but positive energy and are always willing to share their knowledge and insight--Nolan D., Nickie D., MJ, Raymond and Ndnfan to name a few that stand out. Thanks for giving me the opportunity to be a part. You guys are class acts.

As for today, I will be posting my picks and analysis in a bit.

 

[Antonio]

Gl today Law, i usually keep my wagers into 2 unit increments 2-4-6-8-10.... never higher than 6 in bases. Not my best sport by any means, have yet to play a 6x wager in bases, Starting to salivate for some foots

 

[Antonio]

heres a little something something you may wana read, has worked very well for me and

heres a little something something you may wana read, has worked very well for me and

MONEY MANAGEMENT
Money management is just as important as picking winners............In fact, without both you are destined to fail. There are a lot of good handicappers out there. You might even consider yourself to be one. You might fall in the catagory of a number of bettors who can pick games with consistancy but also lose with just as much consistancy......The single biggest reason why sportsbettors fail is because of the lack of proper money management. Just like a good business plan you must have a plan for betting on sporting events.............We would like to share ours with you.

THE PLAN

All plans must start with a Bankroll, defined as the amount of money that you have set aside to risk on sports wagering...........Your bankroll does not have to be the amount of money that you have on hand, just the amount that you can comfortably lose without affecting your life in a great way.......For the sake of this conversation we are going to use $5000...............Next we will select a Unit Wager............This is going to cause some alarm in many of you, but we use 2% of the bankroll as a unit wager....$5000 X .02 = $100...................$100 would be a 1 unit Play...........Wagering on sports is very similar to a stock on Wall Street. Your bankroll is going to go up and down, so we must be able to weather the storms and a 2% wager allows us to do this. The final step is find a safe way to safely increase you wagers as your bankroll increases.

INCREASING WAGERS As your bankroll increases, there is a need to increase the amounts of each unit wager. We use 20% increments or 10 units.....10 X .02 = 20%. Simply put using the $5000 starting figure, one would increase his unit play to $120 after he won 10 units. His bankroll would be $6000. Therefore $6000 X .02 = $120. Your wagers would then stay at $120 until you hit the next level or dipped back down to the $5000 mark. A dip down would result in a $100 bet, and an increase to the next level, ($120 X 10 units = $1200 + 6000 = $7200) would result in a $150 bet,($7200 X .02 = $144 or $150). It is important to note that we always round up to the nearest $10. Your bet size is increasing but your overall risk remains the same.....Let's put this to practice with what we have accomplished this year.

RESULTS BASED ON +130 UNITS

By increasing your bet size at predetermined levels without increasing your risk you can safely build a nice nestegg. Let's take a look at the results of a person who started with $5000, and used this system. They are quite impressive and might shock some of you.

UNITS...............UNIT BET...............BANKROLL

0.........................$100........................$5000

+10.....................$120........................$6000

+20.....................$150........................$7200

+30.....................$180........................$8700

+40.....................$210........................$10500

+50.....................$260........................$12600

+60.....................$310........................$15100

+70.....................$370........................$18200

+80.....................$440........................$21900

+90.....................$530........................$26300

+100...................$640.........................$31600

+110...................$720.........................$38000

+120...................$900.........................$45000

+130...................$1080........................$54000

At +130 for the year you are still betting just 2% of your total bankroll. Your risk is the same as you started. You are simply taking advantage of an increasing bankroll. The key is the predetermined levels of increase.


THE KEY IS HITTING MORE OFTEN THAT NOT

 

[thelawguy]

Thanks, Antonio. That is precisely what I am going to put to work. I have always been comfortable with my abilities to cap and pick games. I remember one trip to Vegas last year..over a two day span I went 12-2 and LOST $$. Should NEVER happen.:nono:

I am also waiting for foots, but have always done pretty well in bases. Hope foots goes well for you (that way I can ride the train!)

 

[thelawguy]

Today: LAD -200 (Perez/Lawrence)

OK, OK, I know its the Dodgers. They have lost five of six since the allstar break...they can't score runs, they have slipped out of first in their division and they are -200 against Lawrence?? Here's why I gotta like LA tonight for 2 Units:

LA is a respectable 28-20 at home while S.D. comes in with a disasterous road record of 13-32. LA also took three of four from S.D. at home earlier this year.

O. Perez: He has been very consistent this year with a nice 2.89 ERA going 10-5. Although O has dropped two of his last three (with an ERA up at 6.50), he appears to be returning to form as he allowed only three runs in six innings against a formidable Arizona offense in a 3-2 loss. In O's only start against the Pads (this year) he absolutely dominated--yielding just one run in 8.2 innings, as the Blue Crew won 4-1 at the friendly confines of the Ravine.

B. Lawrence: Lawry, on the other hand, has been no slouch. He has a 7-5 record with a respectable 3.59 ERA. In 40 career innings against LA, he is 2-1 with an ERA of 2.48. Over his last six starts, however, Lawry has shown a spirling trend--going 0-2 over that period. In Lawry's only start in LA this year, he gave up 3 runs on seven hits in a 5-2 S.D. loss.

I believe that Perez's domination over the Pads will continue. They are horrendous on the road and have only won 5 of their last 20 games overall, snapping a recent three game slide yesterday against Colo., 5-1, but getting almost all of their offense in the first inning. I like LA's bulpen advantage and I believe that LA will be particularly motivated after losing their top spot in the division to Zona at the hands of a hot St. Louis team, but now facing a sub-par S.D. team. It seems that as Green goes so does the LA offense...and look for S. Green to lead the offensive attack against Lawrence. I don't anticiapte a high scoring game, nor do I expect Lawrence to go 8 before giving way to the S.D. batting practice squad...so 4-5 runs by LA should be plenty to get it done.

 

[thelawguy]

Line correction....my off-shore had LA at -200? I got it through my local at -174.