Leans

[TheShrimp]

Haven't had much time this week. Here's some I'm considering:

Caro +8.5
CIN +3 (-120), SU +125
CHI +6.5 (+100)
DET +8.5
HOU +3 (+100)
WASH +7.5
KC +160 (and +3.5 -120)
GB +3 (+100) SU +145
DALL +5
NE +2

Back in touch saturday. maybe tomorrow. any comments welcome. waiting for some of those -120's to drop to -110 or have a line change.

TheShrimp

 

[wcb4]

Shrimp-

Love the Chicago play-public will be all over Jets, even in Champaign. Was also looking hard at Minny +7 and Cincy/Jax Over 43. What do you think about these?:shrug:

 

[TheShrimp]

As far as MINNY +7, that would be my instinct. It looks like a lot, but NO can ring up so many damn points. I'm more comfortable getting 7 in a game I expect to be 21-14 than I do in a game I expect to be 30-23. Too much of a toss-up for me.

If I were getting +7 at even money, I'd do it.

I think Jets/Chi is a great anti-public play, but I don't know for sure. CHI had NE on the ropes just a few weeks ago.

Don't ask me about totals. No clue.

TheShrimp

 

[wcb4]

Thanks for the quick response! I really think Chandler steps in and is able to run things better than Miller was able to on Monday, but I guess that kind of goes without saying because not many D's are like that of the Phins. Jets are a public road fav in a great spot to go against. I'm sold. Thanks again, wcb4.

 

[TheShrimp]

Year 46-47-1.

Recommending:
Caro +8.5 (1.1 -> 1)
CHI +6.5 (.5 -> .5)
GB +145 (1 -> 1.45)
DALL +5 (1.1 -> 1)

Playing the rest of my leans, but these are the ones.

CARO is funny. They did lose to ZONA, but that was when ZONA was 3-1 and had some pride. Lost a HEARTBREAKER to DALL, then basically played GB, ATL, TB, NO, TB, ATL. A tough stretch which they came out of with a win at CLE and then crushing CIN. They're not as bad as they once seemed. PITT had a good mid season stretch against CIN, IND, and BAL but has shown NO dominance this year. CARO has hung with better teams than this this year and they hang again. Gimme points.

CHI +6.5. Not just an anti-public play. This is a great number for them at home after getting trounced on MN. The fact that I think they may have PHONED IT IN already is keeping me wary. The number is bad, but considering the "phone it in" factor, only going with a half unit.

I've gone against SF all season. I don't like the injuries to GB's D. If GB loses, it's by a lot, but I think they can win it by a lot too. Don't like them with the points. Like them at +145

Dall plays most everyone tough. NYG can't put anyone away. DALL stays within the 5. One of these weeks, NYG's D is going to get torched. Well, 16 to HOU and 32 to TENN is getting torched, isn't it? They'll get torched again.

GL

TheShrimp

 

[TheShrimp]

Yesterday 2-2 -.25
Year 48-49-1 -2.53

This year SF has beat, NYG, WASH, STL, SEA, ZONA, OAK, KC, SEA, DALL.

They've lost to DEN, NO, SD, PHI, GB. Don't be fooled by them. They're not that good. Even the ZONA and WASH and NYG covers were within abotu a point of the spread. Don't expect them to get too far.

If Baltimore beats CLE at home this week and PITT loses at TB, then the final week of the season will see BAL @ PITT for the division title with the loser going HOME.

Keep an eye on those next weekend.

No play tonight. Lean on NE.

GL

 

[TheShrimp]

Let's push it into the black. . .

Adding NE +115 (1 -> 1.15)

Brady in the spot light against the resurgent Titans.

Should be a good one. Loser has uphill battle to get to the playoffs. A great december matchup for MNF.

GLTA.

 

[TheShrimp]

Last night 0-1.

Year: 48-50-1 -3.53

Great demonstration last night of what a running game does for you. Ball control. 3rd and short. Protecting the lead. All of it on display from the Titans.

Pats can come up with all the complicated schemes they want for the passing game, but if they can't BANG up front, they're not beating anyone.

They've easily handled Buffalo, and Minny, and these types of squads, but gave up a tons of points to Miami, KC, and their ilk. They have games remaining with the Jets and the Fins. They might have to win them both.

That might be my final record up there, 48-50-1 -3.53. Not TERRIBLE, not great, would be ahead except for the vigorish. I might have a write up later this week about what I've learned this season handicapping.

Thanks for reading.