Lenox Industrial Tools 300 Info

[Another Steve]

What effect will the suspension of Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson's crew chiefs have?
By Dan Beaver
Senior Editor

June 28, 2007

Don't mess with the Car of Tomorrow (COT).

That is the message NASCAR is sending to teams this week in the form of a 100 point penalty against Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson, $100,000 fines and most importantly the suspension of crew chiefs Steve Letarte (no. 24) and Chad Knaus (No. 48).

The penalties resulted from unapproved alterations to the front fenders of their cars before the Toyota / SaveMart 350k, during which both drivers were also kept from qualifying and forced to roll off the grid from the very back of the field. On a road course, that was a substantial penalty in itself.

If the infractions had occurred on the old body style, the drivers and teams would likely have not earned any penalties at all. They would simply have been told to fix the fender and come back through inspection, but the COT is supposedly inviolate?although NASCAR still has not seen fit to color the gray areas black in the rule book.

Buy
Jeff Gordon may be expensive, but he is out to prove something now that NASCAR has issued a harsh penalty for an unwritten infraction. Sending him to the back of the pack at Infineon Raceway failed to slow the No. 24 team when he stormed to the front and finished seventh, and suspending his crew chief is not going to have any lasting impact either. Last year teammate Jimmie Johnson won races at the beginning of the season and eventually won the championship after his crew chief Knaus was suspended for rules violations at Daytona International Speedway and history has a way of repeating itself.

Even with the penalty, Gordon has a 171-point lead over second-place Denny Hamlin, which is nearly one complete race. The 100 points docked from Johnson dropped him to fifth in the standings, but he is still comfortably in the top 12 by 257 markers and all that matters this year is that a driver qualifies for the Chase when the points will be completely reset after race number 25.

Hendrick Motorsports is simply too deep in talent for the suspension of two men to completely derail their efforts. Dale Earnhardt Jr. has been operating without his crew chief Tony Eury Jr. for the past several weeks for a similarly harsh penalty and he's stepped up his efforts, while Matt Kenseth won the Auto Club 500 at California Speedway this spring without Robbie Reiser on the box. In the six weeks that both the No. 24 and 48 chiefs wait at home, expect their drivers to win at least three races.

Sell
Hamlin's brute force has softened somewhat in recent weeks, even though he continues to earn top-10s. After finishing in the top five at Phoenix International Raceway, Richmond International Raceway and Darlington Raceway, the No. 11 has only one such finish is his last four attempts.

Of course, all four of those races ended in top-15s, but the only track on which he could really be said to have dominated was Pocono Raceway?where he won both races in 2006?and in that race he was relegated to a sixth when rains halted the event. Before the end of the season, this amazing Young Gun is going to start to suffer through a sophomore slump, and you want to get ahead of that curve.

Watch
He had to dive into the pits on the next to last lap of the Toyota / SaveMart 350k for a splash of fuel, but right up until then Jamie McMurray looked very strong. The No. 26 qualified on the pole for that race and was determined to keep his car under him for a complete circuit after spinning out on the first lap of that same race the year previous. McMurray showed maturity and gave way to Robby Gordon on the road course, but he ran with the leaders and stayed in the gas until it ran out.

His finishing result was a disappointing 37th, but he survived the race with momentum intact because of how well he ran for 99 percent of the road race. Near the start of the season, McMurray earned six top-10s in a span of seven races from Las Vegas Motor Speedway through Talladega SuperSpeedway and after finishing eighth at Michigan International Speedway two weeks ago, he is prepared to re-mount his charge.

 

[Another Steve]

By Matt Tuck
Contributing Editor

June 30, 2007

It's only fitting that the NASCAR Nextel Cup Series follows Infineon Raceway with New Hampshire International Speedway. The Loudon track is an oval, but it drives more like a road course than any other circular track.

Just like Infineon, it is hard to pass at New Hampshire. There is basically only one groove, so the drivers will need to follow closely behind one another and wait for that opportunity to get around his competition. The best way to do this is, like any road course, is under braking. For that reason, Loudon has more similarities to the small flat track of Martinsville Speedway?which is also hard on brakes?than Phoenix International Raceway.

The biggest fantasy questions this week deals with the younger crowd. This is not necessarily a track for the inexperienced drivers. However, several rookies did well in last year's Lenox Industrial Tools 300. That was in the old set-up, and the Car of Tomorrow (COT) is harder to drive, so this may be a different story than in 2006. Still, some of the sophomore drivers will be worth a second look this week.

Tier One
Jeff Gordon has a question mark beside his name this week, but it is a small punctuation mark. Crew chief Steve Letarte is beginning the first of a six-week suspension, but the No. 24 Chevrolet team is too strong from top to bottom not to overcome it this week. Gordon is a solid flat track driver, has already won at Phoenix and was second at Martinsville earlier this season. He is also the only driver who has swept the top 10 in the COT.

Tony Stewart ran into some hard luck last July, tarnishing a near-perfect record when he was otherwise capable of winning the race. Well, actually Ryan Newman did that for him when he pushed the leader Stewart into the wall in his race last year and caused both of them to crash. Still, he has the 2005 victory in this race and two more runner-up finishes in the other New Hampshire races. So far this year, Stewart's worst result on a flat track was his seventh at Martinsville in March. Since last year, he has a win?at Martinsville in March 2006?and 10 top-10s in 12 tries on the flat tracks.

Denny Hamlin had a car good enough to win last year's Lenox Industrial Tools 300, but fuel mileage in the overtime laps made him settle for sixth. During his next outing at Loudon, he earned a fourth. Hamlin's New Hampshire finishes are clear examples of his prowess for the flat tracks. His two Nextel Cup Series wins were on the larger flat track of Pocono Raceway. He enters the weekend with a 10-race streak of top-10s on the low-banked speedways.

Martin Truex Jr. has quietly put up good numbers on the flat tracks. His only two top-10s have come in the last two races at Pocono, but he has seven top-20s during his flat track career. Only twice has he finished below 24th on these speedways. His teammate Dale Earnhardt Jr. has been one of the best on the flat tracks in his career, so Truex appears to have learned well from his teacher. With Earnhardt's impending departure, it seems that Truex is getting the better equipment in the Dale Earnhardt Inc. camp, which makes him the better choice this week.

Tier Two
Matt Kenseth has been close to perfect in terms of top-10s at Loudon for nearly six years. He had trouble in July 2002 and finished 33rd, but that has been one of only two finishes outside the top-10 in the past 11 races there. For his career, that 33rd was his only result outside the top-20. He was 14th in the 2006 Lenox Industrial Tools 300, but he had worked his way into the top 10 before he experienced brake problems halfway into the race. The only dark cloud over his head this week has been him qualification and practice times, both of which have been mid-pack

Kevin Harvick was the best on the flat tracks in 2006. During those nine low-banked races, he won twice at Phoenix and owned New Hampshire in September. His worst finish in that span was his 13th at Pocono last June. The problem is that those finishes were all earned in the old car. Since hitting the flat tracks in his Chevrolet Impala, Harvick has only one top-10. Things have been looking up for him in the COT; his fuel-mileage earned him a second at Infineon, which gives him two top-fives, four top-10s and six top-20s in the seven races in the new car.

Casey Mears is the only Hendrick Motorsports driver who has not won a race at New Hampshire. While he may have the equipment, Mears has not shown the flat track prowess to get into victory lane. Dating back to March 2006, he has had only one top-10 and two top-20s on the short, flat tracks, and he has never had a top-10 at Loudon. He has been behind his Hendrick teammates in the COT, posting six consecutive finishes of 13th or lower in the new car while they have dominated.

Tier Three
J.J. Yeley has been proving his worth on the flat tracks. Out of 12 races on the low banked tracks since last year, he has seven top-20s and only three finishes worse than 23rd. He has been particularly good at Loudon. Last July, he went home 12th and then got his first career top-10 with an eighth there in September. So far in 2007, Yeley has not been as strong as his Joe Gibbs Racing teammates in the COT, but this is a track where he has the potential to hang in the top 10 with them.

Reed Sorenson had one of his best all-around runs of his rookie year in the Lenox Industrial Tools 300. On that day, he stayed with the top five for much of the race, but he had to stop for fuel just before it went into overtime. His biggest problem this year has been in the COT. In the Dodge Avenger, he has had only two top-20s. The promising aspect of that is that those top-20s both came on flat tracks.

Tier Four
Tony Raines gets to hop back into the driver's seat this week. He gave up the wheel of the No. 96 Chevrolet to Ron Fellows last week and the team walked away from Infineon with a top 20, so they are riding a little higher in the saddle. Raines is ready to go this weekend. He has only one finish lower than 22nd for his career on the short flat tracks and that was a 26th. So far this year, he has top-20s in both flat track starts in the COT, giving him four consecutive finishes of 21st or better on the smaller low-banked speedways.

The last time the Nextel Cup Series made it to a flat track David Stremme was a hot fantasy pick. Entering the Phoenix weekend in April, he was coming off his first career top-10 and had only one finish outside the top 20. In the past seven races, however, he has only one top-20 and five races of 32nd or lower. New Hampshire is a good place for him to get his momentum back. Last July, Stremme was having a rough time on the senior circuit and walked away with an 11th-place finish. When the series returned to Loudon in September, he picked up a 20th. The Achilles heel for him is the COT. The No. 40 Dodge has not been higher than 32nd in the last six COT races

 

[Another Steve]

By Matt Tuck
Contributing Editor

June 29, 2007

Fantasy owners have gotten a taste of who does and does not have a handle on the Car of Tomorrow (COT) by this point in the season. So far, the NASCAR Nextel Cup Series has rolled out the new ride seven times, two of which were on the short, flat tracks of Phoenix International Raceway and Martinsville Speedway. This gives owners a slight edge in narrowing the field at New Hampshire International Speedway, but lately, the tide has started to shift.

In the first five COT races, Martin Truex Jr. had a high of 11th and an average finish of 25th in those events. When he got to Dover International Speedway, however, he dominated the race and earned his first career win. Fantasy owners will want to keep an eye on who is doing the best at the moment. While it always helps to have someone in the lineup who has a history of success on the flat tracks, momentum can carry drivers a long way in NASCAR's senior circuit.

Favorites
Once again, the Joe Gibbs Racing and Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolets lead the charge in pre-race coverage. Fantasy owners may be getting tired of seeing these drivers, but if they have been utilizing their talents, they've had a lot of success. Recently, there have been other players moving into the mix of favorites, but until someone else is as consistent as the Gibbs and Hendrick drivers, these two teams remain on top of the heap.

Denny Hamlin cannot be ignored on any track, but he's been particularly strong on the flat tracks. The sophomore driver has a five-race streak of finishes fourth or better in the COT on ovals, two of which were thirds at Phoenix and Martinsville. Owners should remember that Hamlin's only two career wins came on the larger flat track of Pocono Raceway and he had two top-10s at Loudon last year. After getting off to a slow start in 2007, he has rocketed through the standings and is overdue for his first win of the season.

Jeff Gordon showed his resolve by overcoming the pre-race penalty and driving from 41st to seventh last week at Infineon Raceway. That makes him the only driver who is a perfect seven-for-seven in terms of top-10s in the COT. He won on the flat track of Pocono earlier this month and he was superb at the smaller flat tracks of Phoenix and Martinsville this year, earning a win in Arizona and a second at the latter.

Dark Horses
Other organizations are showing that they too have figured out how to handle the COT. Penske Racing South has been coming on strong as well as Dale Earnhardt, Inc., which makes their drivers prime fantasy targets for Sunday's race.

With Ryan Newman's struggles last year, it is easy to forget that he won his second race at New Hampshire less than two years ago and that the first victory of his career came in his rookie season. Throw out last year's results and he has six top-10s in seven chances there. Moreover, his team has shown that they have the handle on the COT. The last three oval outings in the Dodge Avenger have resulted in a sixth at Richmond International Speedway, a fourth at Darlington Speedway and a second at Dover. He was 14th at Martinsville and also had a car capable of finishing in the top five before he was caught in the pits when a caution flag waved at Phoenix.

J.J. Yeley does not have the COT finishes of his Gibbs' teammates, but he has been improving lately. Last month, he grabbed a 14th at Richmond and then followed that with an 18th at Darlington. Fantasy owners will recall that as a rookie, he finished 12th in the July race at New Hampshire and then earned his first career top-10 with an eighth there in September. The first-time winners have been doing well lately and it is a prefect time for Yeley to get to victory lane.

Avoidance Principal
Casey Mears is driving his heart out lately. Ever since he scored his first win at Lowe's Motor Speedway, he has been a fixture in the top five and top 10 nearly every week. He will hit a brick wall in the form of New Hampshire this week. For his career, he has never been better than 16th there and that was in his first career attempt at Loudon in 2003. He will have the advantage of momentum and Hendrick Motorsports power this time around, but don't expect too much out of Mears.

Reed Sorenson has not gotten the hang of driving the new car. So far, he has a best of 15th and that is only one of two top-20s in the Dodge Avenger. Last year, he was securely in the top five and top 10 virtually all afternoon in the Lenox Industrial Tools 300 before the race went into overtime and he had to pit for gas. However, that was in the old car and until Sorenson shows that he can drive the COT, it is best to steer clear of him. If his practice numbers are solid, however, he may be worth revisiting.