Let the Debate begin.

[hogman14]

Before wk. 15 handicapping starts, and all of the toilet bowls begin, I ask you all to consider the following:

I'm sure all of us have, after losing a bet, after removing the shoe from the television set exclaimed that "someone got to him." Or something like "These games are fixed!"

My question....what do you think of the NFL/professional sports, and do you think that "the fix is in?"

Maybe you have a story where you have witnessed something like this...I'm interested in everyone's point of views, opinions, etc.


My take:

*Players know something, if not a great deal more about the pointspread on any given Sunday. I will try not to bring college sports into this, we have already seen enough scandals. If they didnt, then.......

Why does every Sunday Night game (usually a bailout for people taking a beating on Sunday) usually go the underdog, and the under? (When two "defensive" teams play, the game will go 2 tds OVER the total) Honestly, I consider myself an above average handicapper, nothing more, nor less, but I find either the side, the total, or both of the SNF the easiest by far. If I could only just bet that one game...but I digress...

Why did the Superbowl between the Ravens/Giants go OVER the total? Certainly the bookmakers should have considered special teams in their equations...

Las Vegas OWNS NBA Totals, hands down.


Anyways, I am not naive enough to think that Vegas wants 2 bettors to each take a side, and all action to go 50/50. They LOVE action on the marquee games (SNF, MNF, etc), and don't get me wrong, these guys are good....but is there a line between their skills as oddsmakers, and what players see/hear?

Please reply with a story, anectdote, opinioin, etc

 

[taoist]

Re: Let the Debate begin.

Las Vegas OWNS NBA Totals, hands down.

...wrong, ROGER owns NBA totals. LOL

 

[gjn23]

The last two Sunday night games went over, so according to your theory of SNF being easy your down the juice (since both dogs won).

Roughly 75% of the games are determined by the last drive (either the side or total is on the line) so in my mind nothing is easy. Heck both SNF/MNF last week were determined by the last drive, the total in the GB game and the total in the Mia game (as well as the spread in the GB game with Sharper running back a meaningless INT 70 yards to the 15).

The lock of the week: almost everyone will have a bad beat story every weekend.

 

[Vegas Dave]

Man.....I'm sitting here in another forum talking about traps and fixes, and everyone thinks I'm crazy. Some people actually believe that bookies just want their 10% and thats it.

But thats the idea, the reason why fixes and traps work so well, is because the Public, will NEVER, and I mean EVER believe it. People have admitted to fixing games before, like Irving Fryar, but still nobody cares.

Look no further than the referees for the fixes, and look no further than the Lions - Arizona game this week. Money was on the Lions, Lions got a bad call late in the game which changed the outcome (facemask) and 'Zona covered. Public looks at this and says "That is crazy, no games are fixed". Public also just accepts referees of all sports to be pitiful when the leagues spend billions perfecting every other aspect of the sports such as stadiums, marketing, player talent level, developing players and so on, but when it comes to referees, the best they can do is 90 year old guys who can barely keep up with these players who work other part time jobs.

Whatever, I'm not trying to convince anyone of anything, because most people who read this will think I am crazy to think this sort of thing, but I don't care as long as I win.

Good luck to everyone.

 

[treynolds]

The one that sticks out to me this year was miam oh and marshall

The same ref that made the pass interferense call on 4th down missed two easy calls in the first have that would have gavin miami 1st and goals. I wouldnt be suspicious if it was a different ref but thats all it takes is 1. 1 ref 1 qb. We know it happens as a player admits to doing it everyonce in awhile, but how many times does it happen where no one admits to it. I'm sure more than we realize.
Of course no one cares because we are all greedy and we think we have the edge and no matter how many times someone throws a game we are still gonna bet money week in and week out trying to win. Hell we would probaly bet on the games if we knew the were all fixed hoping that we would be on the right side.

GL

Tyler

 

[FRANK RIZZO]

St louis/Tampa NFC Championship game

St louis/Tampa NFC Championship game

This is the day that I knew for sure that there was another element to this game than just the best team wins. If you remember the Bucs were trailing with time running out on the clock. Sean king completes a pass to Bert Emanuel inside the Rams red zone and is getting ready to make a strike at the end zone when all of a sudden there is a stoppage in play. Guess who? It is our friend the replay officials. They end up determining that it was not a catch by Emanuel and the Bucs are out of scoring position. There was absolutely no F**KING way that the officials could tell by the replays that the pass wasn't caught. The bottom line is that the thought of a Buccaneer/Titans super bowl match up was out of the question. The Bucs were not the very popular team they are today and had virtually no fan base. St Loius was americas darling that year and they desperately wanted to see them in the super bowl. Besides the fact that Tampa bay and the Titans would have been one of those 9-7 ball games as both teams had excellent defenses and limited offenses. The powers to be knew that hundreds of millions in advertising reveue was at stake and could not take a chance on the bucs/titans match up. So hese's to you M- F'ers:thefinger for fixing the outcome of that game

 

[Topdog]

Just adding fuel to this fire!!

Just adding fuel to this fire!!

I may have trouble recalling the exact particulars of this game, but a few years ago, a friend and good capper told me to load up on a weak Seahawks team, at home, playing the Packers. He went on to say that at that time there was a chance for Favre to get traded to Seattle and be back with his old coach. He explained that the word was that Favre made a gift of this game to Holmgren (spelling). I was reluctant for reasons ya'll have already mentioned, but I took a short shot on the game and after seeing the flow of things, loaded up on the second half. As I remember, Favre threw a bunch of interceptions and several with no Packer on that side of the field, assuring a TD return.

After all Favre did give the sack record to a Soup selling Gap tooth Strahan from the Giants. What A Gift!!!

If these stats are correct, consider this: The public looses about 72% of their bets, some here think that games are fixed, great cappers are usually winning around 63%. What stats are most important when considering game winners.

I think it was Nolan Dalla that wrote "If you are in a Vegas book, watching football, and the whole room is cheering against your bet, ...... You are probably on the right side"

Keep it Positive, Topdog

 

[Vegas Dave]

Hey Topdog, I think the most important thing is to go against the money. Although the books plays lots of mind games, if you bet against the money moves, and against the public essentially you are betting with Vegas, which is probably the best thing to do.