Lets Talk about Electoral College

[Clem D]

Bobby Blue Chip posted this great link
http://www.latimes.com

It has an interactive electoral college map and I have playing with it at work. The more I play with it the more I think Kerry will win unless the smear campaign really ratchets up. I researched alot on this and this is what I come up with, try it yourselves and let me know how you think it plays out. Serious discussion only in here no attacks no partisanship.


As the Map is now with states that they feel are locked up which I agree barring a significant event like Bin laden being caught or killed etc:

They have 161 for Kerry and 147 for the Pres with 230 up for grabs. I don't think it is a stretch to give Kerry the New england states up for grabs Maine and Nh. and the President North Carolina. That makes it Kerry 169 Bush 162. I give Delaware Oregon and Washington to Kerry based on polls and recent elections. I give florida and Nevada to the president I won't give my reasons for those, call it a hunch. That Gives the president a 194 to 190 advantage over Kerry. I see the President taking Colorado, Iowa, Arizona and Missouri. Mr Kerry takes Minnasota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and New Mexico. giving him a 232 to 231 lead over the president.

Arkansas, tennessee kentucky and West Virginia I will give all to the president. Kerry gets Hawaiii, PA and ohio. and wins 277 to 261. Obviously it is early and alot can happen, but if the election took place today The president would be in trouble imo. Now I gave Ohio to kerry it could easily go the other way as could Florida go to kerry.You can see why they are going after ohio so strongly. One thing is for sure the election will not be a landslide.I for one hope it is decided either way on Nov, 2 this nation can not afford another controversial recount.

 

[bjfinste]

This is an interesting site, as well.

http://www.electionprojection.com/index.html

The guy who runs the site is very right-wing as can be evidenced by his postings. But the projections are based soley on state polls and has a zero factor for personal opinion. He updates every week. Obviously this can't be taken as the gospel as several battleground states can go back and forth from week to week as the polls fluctuate as one would expect.

But it is interesting to look at how tight some of these states are.

 

[Clem D]

Thank you very interesting site.

 

[Clem D]

Suprised with all the political passion in here noone gave this a shot

 

[ferdville]

Way too early to call this one. All the latest (this week) stuff seems to have the tide turning toward Bush again. The Republicans haven't even had their convention yet. That might make a difference - but for the life of me I can't figure if it will help or hurt the GOP.

 

[bjfinste]

Ferdville- I agree, far too early to call. It's fun to mess around with a little, though. As for the RNC, I would guess it will have little effect either way, much like the DNC, just because it seems like the "undecided" group is much smaller this year than in past elections.

 

[Iowa Child]

I pretty much agree with your assessment except I think Bush will carry Ohio much easier than people think, probably by 4 or 5 percent. Bush seems to have taken the lead in Wisconsin, but I can't figure that out, because then you'd think he'd be leading in Iowa also, and he's not.

 

[Clem D]

What a difference a few weeks can make. Bush has all the momentum. I just redid the Map and now have Bush winning 291 to 247. And that is giving Kerry pa which is now arguable at best.

Unless something swings the Momentum big time, Bush will win rather easily.

 

[Clem D]

Still comes down to florida and ohio

 

[Clem D]

Man this map is changing!! I have Kerry very close now!!

 

[pirate fan]

NBC went over this last night after the debate. Russert basically says it comes down to 3 states. Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. Who ever gets two of the three should win the election. Numbers lean to Bush in Ohio and Florida. :clap:

 

[Clem D]

Actually the latest polls have kerry ahead in ohio and Pa. Not florida though. Check the link above and when the map comes up move your cursor over each state to get latest polls.

 

[Clem D]

The way the polls are now I just did it again and today coame up with a 269 269 tie which would mean a bush victory

 

[CHARLESMANSON]

I love how 6 weeks ago all these liberals were in here saying "you can't rely on polls."

Now you guys are mindfawking them to death! Even spending work-time dwelling on the electoral college!!! Oh man the democrats are DESPERATE!!

:142lmao:


14 more days gentlemen....RIP John Kerry

:flush: :thefinger

 

[Clem D]

I love how 6 weeks ago all these liberals were in here saying "you can't rely on polls."

Now you guys are mindfawking them to death! Even spending work-time dwelling on the electoral college!!! Oh man the democrats are DESPERATE!!

:142lmao:


14 more days gentlemen....RIP John Kerry

:flush: :thefinger

You have a lot of anger in you douchebag. Do the board a favor and give yourself a stroke.

As for dwelling on the Electoral College, is that not what it's all about son? remember 2000? when more americans voted against Bush than for him? More than likely whoever wins this time will lose the popular vote again. So if it is your guy that this happens to, I don't want any tears out of you ok Junior? There is no crying in politics. :clap:

 

[Dr. Whitetail]

You have a lot of anger in you douchebag. Do the board a favor and give yourself a stroke.

As for dwelling on the Electoral College, is that not what it's all about son? remember 2000? when more americans voted against Bush than for him? More than likely whoever wins this time will lose the popular vote again. So if it is your guy that this happens to, I don't want any tears out of you ok Junior? There is no crying in politics. :clap:

Clem, I am really not sure what the point of you reply is.

For those of you that continue to bring up the popular vote/electoral college discrepency, I think you are missing the point. The candidates do not campaign based on the popular vote. That is not how they get elected. Look at the facts, Kerry has been in Ohio 22+ times and Bush has been there 12+. If the popular vote would get them elected wouldn't they spend more time in New York, Chicago, LA, etc. Of course. You are not rewarded in football for scoring a basket and in basketball you are not rewarded for scoring a touchdown.

I am sick of hearing about the popular vote of 2000. Yes, I think we should go to a popular vote. I believe the technology is in place to quickly count each vote. However, until the voting process changes, the candidates campaign based on the electoral college which ultimately renders the popular vote meaningless.

 

[CHARLESMANSON]

Clem D on the contrary by you calling me angry you are calling the kettle black...scroll up and read the frustration in your post.
It's obvious you liberals are squirming in your boots because John Kerry's 15 minutes is almost OVER!!!

:clap:

Clem I dont have to do the board any goddamn favors like you suggest. If you dont like what I say why don't you go crying to Madjack or simply ignore my posts. You sure seem to be obsessed with me because you always respond to my posts. The only people who object to my posts are the liberals, and that's because I dominate them in debates. Speak for yourself.

And what's with this calling me "son" crap? .... calling me "junior"....and duchebag....lmao .........who are you Mr. High and Mighty?? Does it help your arguments to call me names and talk down to me like you're some big intelligent "adult" Gimmee a fawking break

 

[CHARLESMANSON]

quote from Clem D...the Kerry supporter....

"There is no crying in politics"
The democrats ENTIRE campain has been based on them "crying and whining and complaining!!!!!!!!!!

CLEM D...keep those priceless statements coming!!! omg I almost wet my pants after that statement. Best one ever!

:142lmao:

 

[djv]

Poll taken in Wisconsin are off most times. I live here and this is why. When you don' poll the folks form around Madison you for get about the many Dem's. Mad Town big in the Dem's corner.
Iowa will go Bush this year. It looks like Minn has gone to Kerry. Were still open here in Wisky. Thats why there all coming back here again for about the 20 time. The news outlets and papers love it being a swing state. There making money faster then they can count it. I think Bush will win do to FL again. I don't think it goes to the courts this time. But it will leave the country very divided again and that's to bad. What is real SAD. The greatest country on the planet and 47% don't even vote.

 

[bubbas1]

Hey DJV..have you been getting the recorded messages from the Kerry camp? They have been calling here about 3 times a week and its a message saying how great he is and will be.

Also, Ive been asked my opinion over the phone about 4 times. Once was strictly about Nader and the other 3 were about who I would vote for.

I will be glad when this is all over. I didnt put my name on the DO NOT CALL list for no reason.