Liberty Bowl - Scout Inc's take

BobbyBlueChip

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Belly of the Beast
Offenses set for fireworks on New Year's Eve Scouts, Inc.

Scoring shouldn't be a problem for Fresno State and Tulsa in the Auto Zone Liberty Bowl. But in the end, the Bulldogs, led by senior quarterback Paul Pinegar, will be too much for the Tulsa defense to handle.

Tulsa Offense vs. Fresno State Defense
Tulsa has a big-time weapon in TE Garrett Mills, as evidenced by his 83 catches for 1,183 yards and nine touchdowns. Mills is not the typical "hammer" and he lacks prototypical tight end size, but he's a versatile athlete that catches the ball extremely well, creates excellent separation by setting up defenders through his route and is an intelligent student of the game. Tulsa will use Mills in the traditional tight end role, as a motion H-Back and in the backfield as a fullback. They do an excellent job of finding Mills for big plays, often in mismatches against linebackers.

QB Paul Smith is unspectacular, but he does a nice job of protecting the ball and doesn't force throws. Smith throws a catchable ball and can make some plays with his feet. RB Uril Parrish complements Mills' threat as a receiver well. He is a small back that excels as an outside runner and as a pass catcher. He is effective in the open field and capable of making big plays. Tulsa supplements Parrish with Tarrion Adams and loses very little while resting the smaller Parrish. OG Jesse Stoneham and OT Jeff Perrett lead a Tulsa offensive line that's forced to try and bottle up DE Garrett McIntyre, the Bulldogs' best defensive player and a disruptive force in the WAC. McIntyre is a vocal leader who hustles all-out on every play. He must be doubled on nearly every play and is capable of destroying what Tulsa is trying to accomplish in both the run and pass game.

Fresno State Offense vs. Tulsa Defense
Paul Pinegar, who leads the fifth ranked scoring offense in the nation, is the next in line of NFL quarterbacks from Fresno State. He threw for over 3,000 yards and a whopping 29 touchdowns. For the most part, he protects the football very well and makes sound decisions, but he has thrown 11 interceptions in his last six games after only throwing two in his first six. He is tall with a decent arm and is intelligent and efficient. Pinegar sells play action very well. As such, Fresno State will establish a running game with Wendell Mathis and then take shots down the field. Mathis is a talented, productive and tough runner despite his small frame.

Tulsa struggles to stop the run and Mathis averages 5.5 yards per carry, so expect the Bulldogs to use him extensively, especially considering Tulsa does a nice job vs. the pass by forcing turnovers. They have only allowed seven touchdown passes, while creating 18 interceptions, six of which have come from CB Nick Graham. LB Nick Coleman leads the Golden Hurricanes with 103 tackles and is an active instinctive defender. OC Kyle Young leads a very solid offensive line and will team with OGs Dartangon Shack and Cole Popovich to open interior holes and protect Pinegar effectively as he takes shots down the field to Paul Williams, one of the top receivers in the WAC conference.

Special Teams
Head coach Pat Hill does a fantastic job with the Bulldogs' special teams. Adam Jennings handles both return duties, averaging 15.9 yards per punt return and 28.6 per kickoff return. Fresno State's punt return unit has scored four touchdowns and the Bulldogs do an exceptional job bottling up opposing kickoff and punt returners. Tulsa has a big-time weapon of their own in return man Ashlan Davis. Davis is a big play waiting to happen and Fresno State may choose to kick away from him in punt and kickoffs. Tulsa PK Brad Devault is also among the best specialists in the conference.

Three Key Individual Matchups
1. Fresno State RB Wendell Mathis vs. Tulsa LB Nick Coleman
2. Fresno State WR Paul Williams vs. Tulsa CB Nick Graham
3. Tulsa OT Jeff Perrett vs. Fresno State DE Garrett McIntyre

Scouts' Edge
Fresno State never recovered from its gut-wrenching loss to USC. After almost knocking off the two-time defending national champs in Los Angeles, Fresno looked emotionless in consecutive losses to Nevada and Louisiana Tech to finish the regular season. Tulsa, on the other hand, has won three in a row and is a feel-good story having come a long way under coach Steve Kragthorpe's tutelage.

Regardless, expect a ton of points in this game between these former WAC foes, as the Bulldogs average 39 per game compared to Tulsa's 33. With a few weeks off for coach Hill to re-circle the wagons, expect the Bulldogs to come out firing. Pinegar will finish his senior campaign with an impressive performance, much like he did at the end of his junior season with a five-touchdown outing vs. Virginia in the MPC Computers Bowl. In fact, Pinegar has led the Bulldogs to victory in three consecutive bowl trips and will make it an unprecedented four in a row with a win over the Golden Hurricane on New Year's Eve.

Prediction: Fresno State 35, Tulsa 24
 

BobbyBlueChip

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Belly of the Beast
From a consensus site

Sides (ATS) ATS
Date Away Line Picks Pct Home Line Picks Pct Record
12/31/2005 Tulsa +7.5 665 27.42% FreState -7.5 1760 72.58%
12/31/2005 South Florida +3.5 996 41.5% NC State -3.5 1404 58.5% Detail
12/31/2005 Iowa State +2.5 1007 42.2% TCU -2.5 1379 57.8% Detail

70% backed teams now 0-4 ATS this bowl season
 
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