Line Movement Question

[Karac]

I posted this in another thread, but had no response.

The example is the Clemson game today. The line opened at 6, moved to 4.5, which normally would indicate alot of action on Clemson, yet people are stating that as high as 74% are on Tenn?? Why has the line moved the other way and more importantly, how does this figure into the handicapping process? I usually find myself on the wrong end of figuring this out. I suppose it could mean that alot of the small bettors are on Tenn, while the real money is coming in on Clemson, which i would assume means the sharp side is Clemson.

I have heard the arguement that it is perpetrated by Vegas but i find it difficult to believe they would open the number at 6, just to lower it and sucker people in on Tenn. Why would they have to sucker people onto the favorite side?

Opinions welcome and appreciated.

The other question, is can anyone give me a good reason to not unload on the over in the Miss/Ok State game? 60 seems very low.

Thanks.


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[big joe]

Karac, the line move seems isolated as some I've checked have as much as 5 1/2 still. Too much thinking is done about what vegas is "trying to do to us". The line moves are related to the betting activity for that particular book.
As for the 60 total for the Ole Miss/Ok. State game,,I think Ole Miss' defense is alot better than you hear. Most think it's because of Manning getting all the headlines.
I watch for Ole Miss to give the Cowboys fits with their defense.
JMO.
Glty.

 

[Karac]

Appreciate the response

Appreciate the response

My site still has it at 6 too. But i look at scores and odds and they have it going down to 4.5.

As for the Miss game, i am waffling between the Miss side or the over. Seems the last few weeks whichever way i go, i wish i went the other.

Best of luck to you.

 

[big joe]

Re: Appreciate the response

Re: Appreciate the response

My site still has it at 6 too. But i look at scores and odds and they have it going down to 4.5.

As for the Miss game, i am waffling between the Miss side or the over. Seems the last few weeks whichever way i go, i wish i went the other.

Best of luck to you.

I know what you mean, plus all the cappers I respect here at MJs has Ok. State. I really think Eli has a great game to set him up as a top QB for the draft. I think Ole Miss' defense shows up strong.
So, I like Ole Miss and the Under.
Many great cappers have Ok. State and the over :shrug:
I wish you the best.