Line movement question

[JEFF]

OK, so far I'm batting a bit over .500 as far as guessing the line movement on games and either taking them early or waiting for it to move in my favor.

In past years I did not bet overnights so this wasn't much of an issue. But now it is, and I need to make sure I get the best value I can out of these lines, some of which shift 4 or 5 points from open.

I just wanted to know what some of the vets here look at in determining whih way the line will move. Clearly, some are obvious, especially on public teams and "traps".

For instance, I'm looking at WAS -9, Memph +11 and CHI +3.5, but not sure if I want to play any of them tonight. Cleveland has improved its stock, but the Wiz are a screwy team cuz of MJ. Port/Memphi, who knows? And Boston should not be giving 3.5 to CHI, but they still may be bet up by tomorrow.

All input is appreciated.

 

[goldcupsports]

OK well I will take a crack at this.

If these are the sides you want to play


WAS -9, For some reason I have no clue where it will go. If you watch all day you should be able to get yourself -8?


Memphis +11 I see 11? with plus money attatched @ Pinnalce. SO I am thinking most guys will take a shot at that plus money making it goto 12. Hold off I think you may find 12? on this before tip-off

CHI +3.5 I would get that ASAP. Not saying it is a winner but getting that hook on 3 might come in handy. DOn't see that lasting long I would even venture to guess it closes @ CHI+1?

GOOD LUCK on whatever you do..

 

[MrChristo]

I wonder the same thing?

FWIW I'm going to play Chicago +4 now....I think they get bet down tomorrow, but I'm only about 50% at guessing early line movement myself so far.....:shrug:

EDIT: It's especially bad for me here in Oz....Most movement happens b/w 4am to 6am here

 

[JEFF]

Thanks for the insight Gold Cup. I decided to jump on CHI +4 and 11.5 on Port. Wash. is the one that has me most unsure of which way it will go.

But I'm not just curious in regards to these games specifically, rather, I'm trying to hone my ability to figure the moves out with consistency on a nightly basis.

 

[pt1gard]

jeff

jeff

I like bulls too, but ... revenge motive for opener will be in celts mind ... however, Bulls much better than I thought theyd be and celts sinking ...

I like phx under some again, but havent bet it ... won 3xs easily on it after watching them play opener vs Sonics ...

my only play right now is Hornets

gl, gregg

 

[JEFF]

Gregg

Celt's defense has been so bad that I'm not so worried about the revenge motive. Hell, theyve consistently lost in CHI for a few yeas now. Plus the PG situation and the lack of depth ... I'm fading this team until the lines go down a bit.

Oh, and I took New orleans as well.

 

[Dry1]

I think revenge will be a motive for the Celts as they were overconfident and got embarrassed at home...I think they cover this number ...just my 2 cents and I may need change...Dry

 

[heleanth]

When deciding whether or not to play a selection at the current line, one needs to consider what exactly he is looking for. For example, if you want to bet Team A and current line is +7, are you willing to bet the game at that line and how would you feel if the line a)dropped one-half to 6 1/2 or b) went up to 7 1/2??

The answer should help you decide if you should play it now or wait. Also, although I have to proof, it seems to me that more lines move up than down.