Reprinted from whocovxxx.xxx
There?s been a discernable trend in college football that is strong enough and has lasted
long enough to pass along. It goes like this: ?Follow the money on the small programs,
fade the money on the big ones.? Looking at the line moves this past week on the main
rotation, you?ll see a litany of losers. Arizona took money vs. Wisconsin, falling from a
7 to 4? point underdog. Michigan State took money all week, but couldn?t beat Notre
Dame. Ohio State was the biggest steam play off them all, but Cincinnati gave them all
they could handle. Tennessee was supposed to be able to vastly outclass Florida ?
wrong. Kansas State was overrated, while USC was a very live dog ? wrong. A+M?s
homefield advantage would be enough to get them past Virginia Tech making their 1st
road trip of the season ? wrong. The money coming in on almost all the public games,
the TV games, the major conference games, the parlay card games, went straight into
the sportsbooks proverbial pockets. And that was evident from the moves on Sunday
night involving the bigger name schools, moves that bye and large went down in flames.
But take a look at the Added board, with games involving the MAC, Sun Belt and
independent schools ? it?s a whole different story. You can see that from the early line
moves ? 5W, 0L in games involving the MAC, for example, but 0-3 in games involving
the Big 10. The money poured in on UConn right up until kickoff, and that proved to be
the right side after a tough 1st three quarters. Kent St took money all week as well ?
smart money, that is. Louisiana-Lafayette took some heavy wiseguy cash and then went
out and blasted UAB 34-0, while sister school Louisiana-Monroe was bet against by
the sharp players, and got spanked at home by Arkansas State in the game after HC
Bobby Keasler walked away from the job.
So when looking at these early line moves, especially the big opinion moves, remember
that the sharp bettors probably have a better read on the smaller programs than do the
linesmakers, who have to put upwards of 60 pointspreads on the board every Sunday
night. These are moves to pay attention to ? people plunking down 5 or 10 dimes on
Arkansas St are doing so based on information the linesmakers simply may not be privy
to, or have not had the time or inclination to pay attention to. On the other hand, when a
ton of cash rolls in on one side of one of the marquee matchups of the weekend,
beware the oddsmaker. They rarely get on the wrong side of a big line move on a
national TV game, or a key major conference tussle. If you don?t believe me, ask all of
those who took one point with A+M, or laid 19? with Ohio State ?.
Also worth noting that the NFL moves cleaned up this past week, with a 4-0 mark.
Historically, these moves have done rather well ? the 5-10 start may have been
something of an aberration. Last week?s sharp $$ came in on Tampa Bay for Monday
Night, the only game with an outcome still to be decided, something to think about if
you plan to bet the game tonight.
Some data to follow . . .
There?s been a discernable trend in college football that is strong enough and has lasted
long enough to pass along. It goes like this: ?Follow the money on the small programs,
fade the money on the big ones.? Looking at the line moves this past week on the main
rotation, you?ll see a litany of losers. Arizona took money vs. Wisconsin, falling from a
7 to 4? point underdog. Michigan State took money all week, but couldn?t beat Notre
Dame. Ohio State was the biggest steam play off them all, but Cincinnati gave them all
they could handle. Tennessee was supposed to be able to vastly outclass Florida ?
wrong. Kansas State was overrated, while USC was a very live dog ? wrong. A+M?s
homefield advantage would be enough to get them past Virginia Tech making their 1st
road trip of the season ? wrong. The money coming in on almost all the public games,
the TV games, the major conference games, the parlay card games, went straight into
the sportsbooks proverbial pockets. And that was evident from the moves on Sunday
night involving the bigger name schools, moves that bye and large went down in flames.
But take a look at the Added board, with games involving the MAC, Sun Belt and
independent schools ? it?s a whole different story. You can see that from the early line
moves ? 5W, 0L in games involving the MAC, for example, but 0-3 in games involving
the Big 10. The money poured in on UConn right up until kickoff, and that proved to be
the right side after a tough 1st three quarters. Kent St took money all week as well ?
smart money, that is. Louisiana-Lafayette took some heavy wiseguy cash and then went
out and blasted UAB 34-0, while sister school Louisiana-Monroe was bet against by
the sharp players, and got spanked at home by Arkansas State in the game after HC
Bobby Keasler walked away from the job.
So when looking at these early line moves, especially the big opinion moves, remember
that the sharp bettors probably have a better read on the smaller programs than do the
linesmakers, who have to put upwards of 60 pointspreads on the board every Sunday
night. These are moves to pay attention to ? people plunking down 5 or 10 dimes on
Arkansas St are doing so based on information the linesmakers simply may not be privy
to, or have not had the time or inclination to pay attention to. On the other hand, when a
ton of cash rolls in on one side of one of the marquee matchups of the weekend,
beware the oddsmaker. They rarely get on the wrong side of a big line move on a
national TV game, or a key major conference tussle. If you don?t believe me, ask all of
those who took one point with A+M, or laid 19? with Ohio State ?.
Also worth noting that the NFL moves cleaned up this past week, with a 4-0 mark.
Historically, these moves have done rather well ? the 5-10 start may have been
something of an aberration. Last week?s sharp $$ came in on Tampa Bay for Monday
Night, the only game with an outcome still to be decided, something to think about if
you plan to bet the game tonight.
Some data to follow . . .
