Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints
Preview:
Is it possible to put two more underachieving teams together on the football field? The Lions have become a laughing stock. Their home fans root against them, their players are rooting against other players, coaches are getting fired, the GM isn?t getting fired, and their 3 first round draft picks over the last 3 years have provided nothing. However, this team remains a team filled with talent and upside potential. Now that they are allowing their young quarterback to make one last stand and are finally away from their ?home crowd?, can the Lions finally be able to piece together a performance that showcases their potential?
Although the Saints have a somewhat of a valid excuse, they too have been a huge disappointment. Brooks was never able to lead the offense to respectability, forcing a career backup into the starting role. Since McCallister went down, their running back by committee kept the team afloat, but lacked the playmakers to carry the team. Their defense has shown glimpses of upside, but their lack of linebackers have plagued both their run defense and pass defense from remaining consistent and error proof for the entire 60 minutes. The Saints get one more chance to leave a good impression to the San Antonio crowds. However, if their last 5 home games are signs of things to come, the San Antonio crowd will be left with a bad taste in their mouth.
Play: Lions +3
Comment:
Pros:
First of all, I can?t stress enough, the lack of importance the fundamental variables have in a game with this make up. When two cellar team are matched up against one another this late into the season, rarely are the games played to fundamental form, as more times than not at least one team plays with a lack of effort and heart. Last Monday night was a perfect example as the bad Ravens team beat a bad Packers team by 45. Clearly, the fundamentals in that game did was not a factor for such a victory, rather the intangible factors on one team lying down. Therefore, the intangibles have to be weighed more for a game like this, and a handicapper that has a position in this game must be prepared for suffering a one directional loss that could leave you second guessing your handicapping abilities.
So let me first go over the intangible variables that favor the Lions. This might be Harrington?s last shot of earning a starting job in the NFL. Expect him to come out with a lot more intensity in which players in these types of games posses. Pinner is replacing Jones as the starting back due to injury. Normally this is a bad thing. But in a game in which a win is irrelevant, the starting running back more than any other position, has his efforts depreciate. However, Pinner is playing for a spot in the NFL next year, and he too will play with more intensity than a common running back playing in a game like this. Home field advantage might be a disadvantage here. This is not the Saints home, rather a rental unit in which they have played poorly all year in. On the other hand, the Lions appear to play with greater intensity when they are away from their home fans that boo them. They seem to play calmer and don?t try to make too much happen.
Fundamentally speaking, the Lions have a good shot, as their roster is much more talented. Harrington likes to utilize his big bodied receivers by throwing inner hash first level passes. This strategy compensates for his lack of arm strength, and allows his playmaking receivers to make things happen after the catch. This system works perfectly when up against pass defenses in which their best asset is their corners, and against defenses that have poor coverage linebackers. The Saints arguably have the worst line backing crew in the NFL, and their corners are their greatest defensive strength. This bodes perfectly for the Lions passing game, as they will diminish the Saints strength by throwing at the direction of the Saints linebackers rather than their corners. This will also offset the Saints blitzes that they are likely to throw at Harrington, and will also allow Harrington to get into a rhythm early. Harrington clearly is the quarterback who has the better chemistry with his receivers, and it especially shows on quick timing routes. The Saints have struggled against the rush, and have been allowing well over 4 yards per rush. This should allow for the Lions to implements a balanced offensive attack, and keep the pressure of Harrington. An effective running game will also help avoid the third down and longs that have constantly plagued the Lions quarterbacks the entire year. The bottom line is to expect an inspired performance from Harrington. The Lions game plan will take advantage of the Saints weaknesses, and allow the ball to get into the hands of the Lions talented receivers early in the play.
The Saints offense did not improve at all when they elected to take Brooks off the field last week. They have now become more turnover prone and more susceptible to the blitz. Without the mobility of Brooks to have to deal with, the Saints offense has now become much easier to defend as well. The Lions defense has not been able to stop the run recently. However, the Saints lack a playmaking running back, and have been using two aging running backs not accustomed to such a work load this deep into the season. Smith?s only run is the A gap run. However, both the Saints guards are injured, while they have to deal with one of the biggest and most dominant tackles in football (Rogers). Expect the Saints to be unsuccessful in running the interior run, and will be forced to rely more on Stecker and his diverse running abilities. The Saints pass blocking is getting progressively worse, while the Lions have been able to collapse the oppositions pocket better as of late. This does not bode well for the Saints, as Bouman clearly demonstrated last week his is very turnover prone and vulnerable under pressure. Also expect the Lions to install a lot of blitzing schemes that will keep Bauman under duress. Bouman showed signs of staring down his receivers last week. The Lions corners, especially Bly, are good at reading the quarterback and jumping routes. Expect them to be able to capitalize on this liability if Bauman doesn?t change his ways.
Cons:
There might not be another team in football that has displayed less heart and desire to win than the Lions. This reason alone makes this bet a very risky one, and very prone to a one directional loss. In a game like this, the quarterback shouldn?t have much pressure on him, which commonly allows him to be calmer in the pocket. However, there is a lot of pressure on Harrington in this game, and it could backfire. The offense is not playing with a lot of heart, and some of the players aren?t too fond of Harrington. Don?t be surprised to see a total lack of effort from some to the Lions offensive players. Bauman might have shaken off the rust last week, and should be more efficient this time out. His is also playing for a starting role for next year, and will have a more opportune time to display his skills this week going up against a Lions defense that has clearly thrown in the towel. Their tackling is horrific; they make bone head penalties, and are often caught out of position. Also expect a more aggressive game plan from the Saints this time out. The Lions linebackers are extremely injured and thin. They definitely are prone to be worn down later in the game.
Conclusion:
Anything could happen in this game. Either team could blow out the other, or it could be a game that ends in overtime. When teams are prone to not playing to form, the fundamental cappers are caught in a vulnerable position, and prone for a one directional loss. With that said, the intangible and fundamental factors both favor the Lions, while home field advantage isn?t truly their. Value is on the Lions. In a game in which anything could happen, I will take the points and team with more upside potential- and hold my breath.
Preview:
Is it possible to put two more underachieving teams together on the football field? The Lions have become a laughing stock. Their home fans root against them, their players are rooting against other players, coaches are getting fired, the GM isn?t getting fired, and their 3 first round draft picks over the last 3 years have provided nothing. However, this team remains a team filled with talent and upside potential. Now that they are allowing their young quarterback to make one last stand and are finally away from their ?home crowd?, can the Lions finally be able to piece together a performance that showcases their potential?
Although the Saints have a somewhat of a valid excuse, they too have been a huge disappointment. Brooks was never able to lead the offense to respectability, forcing a career backup into the starting role. Since McCallister went down, their running back by committee kept the team afloat, but lacked the playmakers to carry the team. Their defense has shown glimpses of upside, but their lack of linebackers have plagued both their run defense and pass defense from remaining consistent and error proof for the entire 60 minutes. The Saints get one more chance to leave a good impression to the San Antonio crowds. However, if their last 5 home games are signs of things to come, the San Antonio crowd will be left with a bad taste in their mouth.
Play: Lions +3
Comment:
Pros:
First of all, I can?t stress enough, the lack of importance the fundamental variables have in a game with this make up. When two cellar team are matched up against one another this late into the season, rarely are the games played to fundamental form, as more times than not at least one team plays with a lack of effort and heart. Last Monday night was a perfect example as the bad Ravens team beat a bad Packers team by 45. Clearly, the fundamentals in that game did was not a factor for such a victory, rather the intangible factors on one team lying down. Therefore, the intangibles have to be weighed more for a game like this, and a handicapper that has a position in this game must be prepared for suffering a one directional loss that could leave you second guessing your handicapping abilities.
So let me first go over the intangible variables that favor the Lions. This might be Harrington?s last shot of earning a starting job in the NFL. Expect him to come out with a lot more intensity in which players in these types of games posses. Pinner is replacing Jones as the starting back due to injury. Normally this is a bad thing. But in a game in which a win is irrelevant, the starting running back more than any other position, has his efforts depreciate. However, Pinner is playing for a spot in the NFL next year, and he too will play with more intensity than a common running back playing in a game like this. Home field advantage might be a disadvantage here. This is not the Saints home, rather a rental unit in which they have played poorly all year in. On the other hand, the Lions appear to play with greater intensity when they are away from their home fans that boo them. They seem to play calmer and don?t try to make too much happen.
Fundamentally speaking, the Lions have a good shot, as their roster is much more talented. Harrington likes to utilize his big bodied receivers by throwing inner hash first level passes. This strategy compensates for his lack of arm strength, and allows his playmaking receivers to make things happen after the catch. This system works perfectly when up against pass defenses in which their best asset is their corners, and against defenses that have poor coverage linebackers. The Saints arguably have the worst line backing crew in the NFL, and their corners are their greatest defensive strength. This bodes perfectly for the Lions passing game, as they will diminish the Saints strength by throwing at the direction of the Saints linebackers rather than their corners. This will also offset the Saints blitzes that they are likely to throw at Harrington, and will also allow Harrington to get into a rhythm early. Harrington clearly is the quarterback who has the better chemistry with his receivers, and it especially shows on quick timing routes. The Saints have struggled against the rush, and have been allowing well over 4 yards per rush. This should allow for the Lions to implements a balanced offensive attack, and keep the pressure of Harrington. An effective running game will also help avoid the third down and longs that have constantly plagued the Lions quarterbacks the entire year. The bottom line is to expect an inspired performance from Harrington. The Lions game plan will take advantage of the Saints weaknesses, and allow the ball to get into the hands of the Lions talented receivers early in the play.
The Saints offense did not improve at all when they elected to take Brooks off the field last week. They have now become more turnover prone and more susceptible to the blitz. Without the mobility of Brooks to have to deal with, the Saints offense has now become much easier to defend as well. The Lions defense has not been able to stop the run recently. However, the Saints lack a playmaking running back, and have been using two aging running backs not accustomed to such a work load this deep into the season. Smith?s only run is the A gap run. However, both the Saints guards are injured, while they have to deal with one of the biggest and most dominant tackles in football (Rogers). Expect the Saints to be unsuccessful in running the interior run, and will be forced to rely more on Stecker and his diverse running abilities. The Saints pass blocking is getting progressively worse, while the Lions have been able to collapse the oppositions pocket better as of late. This does not bode well for the Saints, as Bouman clearly demonstrated last week his is very turnover prone and vulnerable under pressure. Also expect the Lions to install a lot of blitzing schemes that will keep Bauman under duress. Bouman showed signs of staring down his receivers last week. The Lions corners, especially Bly, are good at reading the quarterback and jumping routes. Expect them to be able to capitalize on this liability if Bauman doesn?t change his ways.
Cons:
There might not be another team in football that has displayed less heart and desire to win than the Lions. This reason alone makes this bet a very risky one, and very prone to a one directional loss. In a game like this, the quarterback shouldn?t have much pressure on him, which commonly allows him to be calmer in the pocket. However, there is a lot of pressure on Harrington in this game, and it could backfire. The offense is not playing with a lot of heart, and some of the players aren?t too fond of Harrington. Don?t be surprised to see a total lack of effort from some to the Lions offensive players. Bauman might have shaken off the rust last week, and should be more efficient this time out. His is also playing for a starting role for next year, and will have a more opportune time to display his skills this week going up against a Lions defense that has clearly thrown in the towel. Their tackling is horrific; they make bone head penalties, and are often caught out of position. Also expect a more aggressive game plan from the Saints this time out. The Lions linebackers are extremely injured and thin. They definitely are prone to be worn down later in the game.
Conclusion:
Anything could happen in this game. Either team could blow out the other, or it could be a game that ends in overtime. When teams are prone to not playing to form, the fundamental cappers are caught in a vulnerable position, and prone for a one directional loss. With that said, the intangible and fundamental factors both favor the Lions, while home field advantage isn?t truly their. Value is on the Lions. In a game in which anything could happen, I will take the points and team with more upside potential- and hold my breath.
