Looks like I'm the only one on the Dolts this week..
- Thread starter pacerfan
- Start date
whoever the dolts are they sure did play alot of games on the road this year. 17 games? if you are talking about the colts then it looks like alot of people are betting with you because the line started at 4 and is down to 3 and still going down. Other than that good post 
Txag...
I believe that record is over the last 2 years....
I never saw a 4 out there:shrug: ...who needs stinkin' pts anyway
I believe that record is over the last 2 years....
I never saw a 4 out there:shrug: ...who needs stinkin' pts anyway
From the looks of your avatar it looks like you might have a biased opinion on this game. These Pats might not be pretty but they always seem to find a way to win. I'll galdly take the much better defense, better coach, huge homefield advantage, the team who has won 15 out of their last 16 games and only give a field goal. Sorry Peyton this week you get to face a real defense, your fantasy camp is over.
all that and the line is ONLY 3 pts...seems like Vegas is looking for NE money...especially after the colts went into KC(also undefeated at home) as 3 pt. dogs and beat them.
With all these factors in NE's favor..better coach, better d, homefield....why is number only 3?
well pacerfan if vegas is looking for new england money they sure aint getting it. c'mon man dont you know the public LOVES high powered offenses. i believe the lined opened at 4 and is down to 3. the public has seen peytons ridiculous numbers in the playoffs(dont know them off hand but hey are ridiculous and almost perfect QB rating) and they are saying holy sh%t this guy is an underdog this week? so I guess to answer your question the Pats are only -3 because the public loves high powered offenses and vegas knows it.
....................................................................txag said:
txag
I like this line of thinking. I like it alot.
KOD
well, if 'the public' is betting the Dolts heavily, then the line should be down to 1 or a PK, shouldn't it...
The number is not going to move that much for a playoff game. The game is too high profile for a line to be that wrong, to start with. It's not like the oddsmaker just picks a number off the top of his head. With the amount of scrutiny these games get, believe me, a lot of thought is put into it before you ever see a number.
It's quite rare to see a number cross the 3 to begin with, even in regular season. To have it happen in a playoff game there would have to be a TON of money coming in on one side only...or something coming up like a major injury or something mid-week which changes the circumstances of the game. And even at that, they don't want to get middled on it. These days books are much more apt to move the money than the line. That's all they need is for the game to land on 3 and the whole world to cash winning tickets.
Also...when discussing the public...keep in mind who bets when. Do you know many people who bet the game a week in advance? The public typically bets in the 24 hours leading up to the game (or more correctly, the day of the game, the couple of hours leading up to the game, etc). If you're seeing line movement now, chances are it's not public money; it's sharps grabbing what they see as a tiny advantage against the spread, or hoping to middle or side the books.
"middle" being winning bets on both teams..."side" being a win on one bet, and a push on the other team...."
It's quite rare to see a number cross the 3 to begin with, even in regular season. To have it happen in a playoff game there would have to be a TON of money coming in on one side only...or something coming up like a major injury or something mid-week which changes the circumstances of the game. And even at that, they don't want to get middled on it. These days books are much more apt to move the money than the line. That's all they need is for the game to land on 3 and the whole world to cash winning tickets.
Also...when discussing the public...keep in mind who bets when. Do you know many people who bet the game a week in advance? The public typically bets in the 24 hours leading up to the game (or more correctly, the day of the game, the couple of hours leading up to the game, etc). If you're seeing line movement now, chances are it's not public money; it's sharps grabbing what they see as a tiny advantage against the spread, or hoping to middle or side the books.
"middle" being winning bets on both teams..."side" being a win on one bet, and a push on the other team...."
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i never said the public was betting the Colts heavily did i? all i said was the line moved from 4 to 3. I agree for the most part with GM that the so-called public does not bet until the day of the game so maybe we will see if the line moves any then. But Im sure there was some joe schmos out there who saw indy getting 3.5 or 4 points when the line first came out on sunday and couldnt believe that the mighty colts offense that they just watched dominate is an underdog against the Pats and jumped all over the colts. I highly doubt the line moves off of 3 becasue it is such a key number like GM stated. I have never in my short time betting seen a line on a playoff game move 3 or 4 points like you are saying would happen if the public is betting heavily on the colts. 3 is the correct line for this game and I see it staying that way up until gametime.
so pacerfan the only reasoning I have seen for why you are taking the colts is because they are 13-4 on the road their last 17. Is this all you can come up with? I sure hope you have some other reasoning. Please enlighten me as to why you think big game manning and the colts are going to win this game.
........................................................................GM said:
GM
I do not agree with you and its important for me to understand this.
I think the public bets the early money as they just want to get something down for the game and not be hassled later trying to get it down.
The sharps are the ones that wait. The time to watch the line is the day of the game.
KOD
Scott -
The sharps bet early and late. They may hit a line early for the value. You've got the syndicates who may hit something early, and then hit the opposite side late at a better price for more money (the side they really liked in the first place being the one they hit late). You've got sharps hoping to hit middles (greatly cut down since moneyline moves became the norm). And there are those who bet late, waiting until the public bets up the side they know they will hit, so they can get better value later on the opposite side.
Your regular guy isn't online at 8:30 Sunday night hitting opening lines for games 7 days from now...he's just basking in the glory (or crying in his beer) about the game that just ended, not even thinking of next week.
The public, in general, bets late. You and I may be betting early...but I don't think we are typical of the public. Pretty much anybody who comes to a forum like this and tries to do some research, any research days in advance of the game, is a cut above and not your typical "public" guys. But we are far outnumbered by them.
I don't think if you go to work and ask or hang out at your local bar you will run into too many Joe Schmoes who will tell you "I hit the Colts at +4 on Tuesday".
Most average guys I know don't do anything resembling research aside from watching Sportscenter or reading the local paper...and won't put in their actual bet til late.
Just my opinion.
PS - Thanks again for the comments in General yesterday. That was nice to see. I appreciate the kind words.
The sharps bet early and late. They may hit a line early for the value. You've got the syndicates who may hit something early, and then hit the opposite side late at a better price for more money (the side they really liked in the first place being the one they hit late). You've got sharps hoping to hit middles (greatly cut down since moneyline moves became the norm). And there are those who bet late, waiting until the public bets up the side they know they will hit, so they can get better value later on the opposite side.
Your regular guy isn't online at 8:30 Sunday night hitting opening lines for games 7 days from now...he's just basking in the glory (or crying in his beer) about the game that just ended, not even thinking of next week.
The public, in general, bets late. You and I may be betting early...but I don't think we are typical of the public. Pretty much anybody who comes to a forum like this and tries to do some research, any research days in advance of the game, is a cut above and not your typical "public" guys. But we are far outnumbered by them.
I don't think if you go to work and ask or hang out at your local bar you will run into too many Joe Schmoes who will tell you "I hit the Colts at +4 on Tuesday".
Most average guys I know don't do anything resembling research aside from watching Sportscenter or reading the local paper...and won't put in their actual bet til late.
Just my opinion.
PS - Thanks again for the comments in General yesterday. That was nice to see.
I appreciate the kind words.
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I'll be on the Colts +3.5 (Infinity) as well.
Pat's D (who really hasn't faced many good offense's this year) will be disoriented.
Pat's D (who really hasn't faced many good offense's this year) will be disoriented.
