After a stunning Game 1 victory, the Portland Trail Blazers have lost control of their first-round playoff series as the Los Angeles Lakers took Game 3, covering with only the hook to spare. But as they stare down the barrel of Game 4, there is no doubt that if the Blazers have any desire to stay in the series, they need to climb back and get the win.
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Anything less than that and a decisive Game 4 victory is only a guarantee for the Los Angeles Lakers, who since dropping their opening game have looked nothing less than indomitable.
But for those looking to ride the Damian Lillard coattails to betting victory, they may need to reconsider. While it was fun to ride the Blazers in their closing games, the fact is, they have been an abysmal ATS team as of late.
The Blazers are 1-4 in their last five games ATS, and the Lakers are hot after dropping their first game in the series. The extra wear on the Blazers for having to play the play-in game, despite there being no travel, may result in slightly extra fatigue for them, and online sportsbooks know it. Not to mention the fact that Lillard's dislocated finger may be giving him more issues than he's letting on.
Despite that fact, the narrative of a Blazers comeback does not seem realistic. We are likely going to see a Game 4 finish where the Blazers remind us that while they do have one of the better combo-guards in the league, they do not have the depth and dynamism of the Lakers. That will not be enough to overcome the star power of LeBron James and Anthony Davis.
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Too Much Pressure
The primary reason the Blazers win their games is by unbelievable output by the likes of Lillard or the rest of their top three, which includes Jusuf Nurkic and CJ McCollum. Together, they are a solid trio, but none of those players are individually better than James, and all of them still don't out-duel James and Davis when they're on their best nights.
The result is that there is way too much pressure on the Blazers' scorers, especially McCollum and Lillard. While they are a good combo, both are extremely ball-dominant guards that don't always have the best two-man game.
This leads to stagnant stretches where the Blazers have to get hot and stay hot to outcompete their opponents. Whether you handicap the games, search for free picks or buy picks, these hot stretches maybe matter the most. As demonstrated by this series, while Portland gets out to hot starts, the Lakers slowly grind back into the game, and once they clinch a nice lead, they do not relinquish it.
After leading for the entire first half, the Blazers let the Lakers battle back and outscore them in both the third and fourth quarters on Saturday, albeit only by one in the fourth.
This pressure will show itself in Game 4, and the Lakers will continue to clamp down on the Blazers until the series is over.
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Lakeshow Is Too Much and Too Deep for Portland
There is no line on the game on Monday yet, but we like it to stay under the total and for the Lakers to cover, regardless of the opening line.