Lots of love for MSU - Anything I can find
- Thread starter T
- Start date
- Sep 1, 2012
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I'm not here to take anything away from Michigan, or what coach Dusty May has done in his second year with the program: They are a team very capable of making a deep run come March.
However, there are situations where the market is mispriced on a team and for anyone doing who's been doing this for a long enough time, you learn that these are the spots you don't take for granted.
Michigan is in fact 19-1, but make no mistake about it, January has been nothing short of a month of regression for them.
We've seen good, even great basketball from them for most of the year...
But let's dive a little deeper into what we haven't seen:
- We haven't seen them cover on the road once this entire season (0-5 ATS). To make matters worse, not a single one of those five teams is/was ranked at the time.
- We haven't seen them cover in seven straight games - since Jan. 2nd.
- We haven't seen Dusty May get a win yet against Tom Izzo - Michigan St. swept them conference play last season (and the season prior).
- We haven't seen Michigan as a program go on the road and beat Michigan St. since Jan. 13, 2018.
In terms of matchups, just about everything Michigan excels at, Michigan St. is just as good at or even better at taking away.
According to BIG 10 Conference play metrics:
- Field goal percentage: Michigan shoots 50.6%, Michigan St. allows 38.5%.
- Free throw attempts: Michigan shoots 24.7 attempts, Michigan St. allows 14.4 attempts.
- 3-PT percentage: Michigan shoots 32.8%, Michigan St. allows 28.6%.
- Rebounding margin: Michigan +6.5, Michigan St. +14.
I'm sure some would argue that reverse line movement makes Michigan the sharper side.
However, there are situations where the market is mispriced on a team and for anyone doing who's been doing this for a long enough time, you learn that these are the spots you don't take for granted.
Michigan is in fact 19-1, but make no mistake about it, January has been nothing short of a month of regression for them.
We've seen good, even great basketball from them for most of the year...
But let's dive a little deeper into what we haven't seen:
- We haven't seen them cover on the road once this entire season (0-5 ATS). To make matters worse, not a single one of those five teams is/was ranked at the time.
- We haven't seen them cover in seven straight games - since Jan. 2nd.
- We haven't seen Dusty May get a win yet against Tom Izzo - Michigan St. swept them conference play last season (and the season prior).
- We haven't seen Michigan as a program go on the road and beat Michigan St. since Jan. 13, 2018.
In terms of matchups, just about everything Michigan excels at, Michigan St. is just as good at or even better at taking away.
According to BIG 10 Conference play metrics:
- Field goal percentage: Michigan shoots 50.6%, Michigan St. allows 38.5%.
- Free throw attempts: Michigan shoots 24.7 attempts, Michigan St. allows 14.4 attempts.
- 3-PT percentage: Michigan shoots 32.8%, Michigan St. allows 28.6%.
- Rebounding margin: Michigan +6.5, Michigan St. +14.
I'm sure some would argue that reverse line movement makes Michigan the sharper side.
Let's see the reverse from the Nebraska game. Lots of points first half then under. Low scoring first half huge second half. Overtime if necessary Pew Pew Pew
