LSU Tigers Ready To Bounce Back

[IE]

Since it's the NCAA football betting - and NFL betting - season, it's time to start handicapping all sorts of lines and futures.



One of the best lines on the board for betting is the LSU Tigers regular season win total.



The LSU Tigers were an absolute disaster last year. After winning the BCS Championship two years ago, the Tigers had a huge hangover in 2008 and had the fewest amount of wins by a champion in nearly 50 years. The problem with the Tigers back then was two-fold: their quarterbacking was horrible and their defense turned soft.



Starting with the quarterbacking play, Jarrett Lee turned out to be Mr. Pick Six as he crippled the Tigers in several games throughout the year with interceptions for touchdowns. The Tigers offense wouldn't have actually been so back had their quarterback play been just competent, instead of incompetent. As a matter of fact, All-SEC running back Charles Scott and stellar wideout Brandon LaFell turned out to be valuable pieces.



The second biggest failure for the Tigers was their defense. In their championship year, the defense was their strong suit. In their eight-win season last year, the Tigers turned out to be very soft.



While the Tigers aren't anyone's sports picks to win the SEC this year, and they probably won't since the Florida Gators are the shoe-in for that, the Tigers could give the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Mississsippi Running Rebels a run for their money in their side of the bracket.



The Tigers will put in quarterback Jordan Jefferson as the full-time starter after he flashed some nice skills down the stretch of the season as a true freshman. Jefferson is a really good duel threat and could be one of the best quarterbacks in the SEC over the next three years. Add to that the return of Scott and LaFell, who could have All-American potential, and the Tigers are loaded on offense.


On defense, the Tigers made some changes and picked up former Tennessee Volunteers coordinator John Chavis. He's lit a fire under this defense and they have played with plenty of passion through spring and offseason training.



The Tigers won seven regular season games last year and this time around, their total is set at 8.5. Although they have to travel to Georgia, to Alabama and to Ole Miss for tough road contests, look for the Tigers to get their revenge from some of the beatings they took last year and win the SEC West. Most betting system picks have them finishing third but they are as good - if not better - than Ole Miss and Alabama.

 

[Cie]

My take on LSU this season.

LSU features improvement at QB with an offseason of taking number #1 reps for Jordan Jefferson. Russel Shepard will operate the "Wildcat" QB slot, and will be used as a TB and WR to get the ball in his hands regularly. Charles Scott, Keiland Williams and Richard Murphy are a strong set of RBs, with depth in the form of Michael Ford. WR , led by underrated Brandon Lafell, has some question marks. Two 5* WR recruits, Tolliver (Jr) and Randle (Fr), will need to step up. TEs are deep and very complimentary of each other. OL loses Herm Johnson, but is now a quicker, more athletic line anchored by 4th yr starter at LT, Ciron Black. I expect an improved unit from last season. The RS frosh at center, Hebert, has talent, but is off of season-ending acl surgery.

The D line is being coached at a much higher level than last season. Apparently Earl Lane was not doing a great job with this unit. Some departures, including Sidell Corley earlier this month, may hurt. There seems to be alack of leadership at DL. Big DT Al Woods, who plays w/o necessary leverage and balance, will never reach his billing. DT Charles Alexander received 6th year due to injury plagued career. You cannot count on him to play a full season, although he shines when healthy. Expect Frosh Montgomery and Davenport to play. The LB corp is going to be solid. I am not sold on the MLB, but the addition of former safety Harry Coleman and the handling of this unit by Chavis should help. The secondary has high level talent, and I expect great things from from CB Peterson and Safeties Brooks and Jones. Steady Sr. CB Hawkins returns, and Jai Eugene gives a nickelback who is finally commited to the team and can cover.

The new punter is booming them in practice, but there are questions at PK. Return game should be solid with a healthy Trindon Holiday.

Questions marks:

experience at QB and center
leadership at DL
talent at MLB

 

[StuckinNJ]

Agree Some, Disagree Some

Agree Some, Disagree Some

I agree that QB play should be markedly improved. It really has to, doesn't it? Its hard to explain why since presumably Lee was clearly the best option last year, but how can it not get a lot better? The O line should be fine. I don't see how they will be able to deal with Florida or Ole Miss any better than last year, but the line isn't a problem. LSU should be able to run very well on at least 9 of their opponents and the QB situation can be controlled, if necessary. At LSU, Defense is the answer, not the problem. The defense will probably pull LSU through a few games that other teams might lose. Special Teams are special teams - in most matchups, they have a nearly random effect on the game and are mainly useful for commentators for to fall back on when they don't have any idea what is going to happen (eg, "I'll tell you, Joe. These teams are pretty evenly matched on paper offensively and defensively, so its going to come down to Special Teams. Mark my words, someone is going to come through with a Big Play and blah, blah, blah"). From this, it looks like LSU's win total HAS to improve.

Guess the next number in the series - 4,7,9,? Did you guess 7? The trick is that the series peaks at the 3rd term. Let's try again, with the same type of series - 10,10,11,? Did you remember the trick? The series peaks at the 3rd term. The answer is again 7. Let me explain. The numbers in the series represent your altitude as you go up and over a hill- you see, you go up, then you come back down. No, just kidding. They represent Les Mile's regular season wins each year at Ok State and at LSU respectively. Not a lot of data to go on to be sure, but if you were to guess at what might cause this, what would you say? My guess would be based on the observation that each year that goes by, the team has fewer and fewer of the players Miles inherited and more and more of the ones he brings in. There is no doubt that he brings in great classes each year, but wouldn't Sam Bradford have been a waste at Air Force?* From this, it looks like LSU's win total last year is about right for a Les Miles team.

I'll spot LSU wins over Washington, Vandy, ULL, Miss St, Tulane and La Tech - that's 6. I don't think LSU has much chance of beating Florida, and only a little better of beating Ole Miss, so I'll put them at 6-2 for these 8 games. That leaves @UGA, Auburn, @ Bama, and Arkansas. They may well end up beating all 4 of these teams, but my guess is 2-2 or maybe 3-1. That puts the season wins at 8-4 or 9-3. Season Wins O/U at 8' seems dead-on to me. If you were to ask me, I have an opinion as to which side is more likely, but I do not see any value at all, much less an opportunity in betting season wins for LSU. For me, this bet would be tying up money for 4 months on a bet that I can duplicate the odds on with dozens of games each Saturday.

* This is the second post that I have made this argument in. To avoid continuing to beat this dead horse, if I feel compelled to make this point in the future, I'm simply going to call it Opinion A.