toledo rockets (+2)
toledo rockets moneyline (+115)
figured this line would open around pk. saw olympic and pinnacle open toledo at -1.5 and then move to miami -1.5/-2.0 shortly thereafter. not sure where this line will close (as mac line movement has been wacky this year) but any points that miami gives to toledo is one point too many.
my stance hasnt changed since the beginning of the season: toledo is the best team in the conference. miami is obviously very good, but when it comes down to nut-cutting time, ill take gradkowski over any quarterback in the conference, especially betts. and when toledo's offense is in a groove, theyre damn near impossible to stop because of their balance, speed and explosiveness on the outside, and ability to run the ball effectively (the 2nd half of the bowling green game was the perfect example)
now that its december, i think we're all familiar with the personnel and styles of these two schools. no sense in rehashing all that. a few things i do think are worth noting though:
* toledo had every chance to win the first meeting in oxford a month ago. the rockets uncharacteristically turned the ball over 4 times, which led to some short fields for miami. rockets outgained miami in total offense and held a significant edge in the rushing game (toledo 36 for 177, miami 40 for 76).
* in toledo's three biggest games this year (vs. miami, northern, and bowling green), they outrushed those three teams by a combined 571-300 (4.4 ypc vs. 3.0 ypc). thats a notable stat imo, as it reflects how toledo's big offensive line is wearing down opponents, even elite conference foes.
* miami (betts in particular) is still shaky when it comes to taking care of the ball. its sort of surprising, since theyre a well-coached team. but miami is -8 in the turnover department this year, whereas toledo is even.
* mac championship no longer played at a campus site, but ford field is essentially a pseudo-home game for toledo. its a 45-minute drive north, and rockets have played here before in past bowl games. familiarity and proximity both favor toledo.
ill add some more to this thread and post some article links for reading as they become available.
toledo rockets moneyline (+115)
figured this line would open around pk. saw olympic and pinnacle open toledo at -1.5 and then move to miami -1.5/-2.0 shortly thereafter. not sure where this line will close (as mac line movement has been wacky this year) but any points that miami gives to toledo is one point too many.
my stance hasnt changed since the beginning of the season: toledo is the best team in the conference. miami is obviously very good, but when it comes down to nut-cutting time, ill take gradkowski over any quarterback in the conference, especially betts. and when toledo's offense is in a groove, theyre damn near impossible to stop because of their balance, speed and explosiveness on the outside, and ability to run the ball effectively (the 2nd half of the bowling green game was the perfect example)
now that its december, i think we're all familiar with the personnel and styles of these two schools. no sense in rehashing all that. a few things i do think are worth noting though:
* toledo had every chance to win the first meeting in oxford a month ago. the rockets uncharacteristically turned the ball over 4 times, which led to some short fields for miami. rockets outgained miami in total offense and held a significant edge in the rushing game (toledo 36 for 177, miami 40 for 76).
* in toledo's three biggest games this year (vs. miami, northern, and bowling green), they outrushed those three teams by a combined 571-300 (4.4 ypc vs. 3.0 ypc). thats a notable stat imo, as it reflects how toledo's big offensive line is wearing down opponents, even elite conference foes.
* miami (betts in particular) is still shaky when it comes to taking care of the ball. its sort of surprising, since theyre a well-coached team. but miami is -8 in the turnover department this year, whereas toledo is even.
* mac championship no longer played at a campus site, but ford field is essentially a pseudo-home game for toledo. its a 45-minute drive north, and rockets have played here before in past bowl games. familiarity and proximity both favor toledo.
ill add some more to this thread and post some article links for reading as they become available.
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