mac saturday: november 4th ........

gman2

Registered User
Forum Member
Nov 12, 2002
9,827
16
0
with each passing week of the football season, this conference gets tougher and tougher to cap. make no mistake about it, theres not a lot of good football being played in the mac right now. the best team on either side of the conference right now wouldnt hang within 10 of the last couple division winners.

miami at western michigan
miami playing out the string for the first time in a long time. ryne robinson's career has come full circle. as a freshman, hes catching passes from roethlisberger and playing for a juggernaut miami team that was one of the mac's best teams of the last decade. now as a senior hes catching passes from mike kokal and playing for a 1-8 miami team that could conceivably go winless the rest of the season. pretty remarkable. redhawks are young. the program hasnt turned to complete shit but they better hope this is a one year bump in the road. western michigan has far and away the best defense in the mac. but their offense is lame. and thats what makes miami a semi-appealing dog here. but miami's pass protection is dog shit and its becoming increasingly difficult for kokal to get the ball to his playmakers. miami has far better offense weapons than wmu. but the broncos have too much at stake to slip up. wmu isnt 14 better than miami on paper, but given the way the seasons are going for these two, miami mailing it in if they encounter early adversity is a possibility.

ohio at eastern
very few teams can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory the way emu can. this team is definitely better than their record. and they should have won outright as a 15 point underdog at western michigan last week. but they just seem to collapse when it gets to crunch time. ohio coming off a big win in kent. for some reason, genyk seems to think their merry-go-round at quarterback between jones and scmitt is a good thing. theyd probably be better off with some stability. they have the best receiver in the mac on their team and they cant consistently get him the ball. easterns defense has actually played well lately. earlier in the season is was a sieve. but theyve held 5 of their last 6 to 24 or less. thats not going to evoke images of the 85 bears but its allowing them to stay within striking distance in the 4th qtr of almost every game they play. ohio starting to look like the team to beat in the east. but road chalk with the bobcats isnt anything to get excited about. lean to the dog here but nothing strong.

bowling green at akron
bg is amazing. bullock rushes for almost 200 yards last week, the falcons have a better than 2/1 edge in first downs, they dominate temple in almost every area of the game .. and lose outright to the owls in the embarrassment of the season. bg's special teams are rivaled only by kent in terms of ineptitude. within the last 2 weeks, bg has allowed 1 kick return for a touchdown, 1 kick return for a near-TD where central scored one play later, they've missed two field goals in the red zone, they've had an 8-yard punt, and they've had a punt blocked. when bg takes the snap from center and runs the football, they're as good as anyone in the mac. the problem is they are a comedy of errors in other phases of the game. true freshman tyler sheehan played the 2h of the temple game and could take over for turner in the near future. bg is just impossible to cap right now. they are capable of winning every game they play the rest of the season .... or not winning another game the rest of the season. they're that enigmatic. akron has been a disaster themselves, going from preseason mac favorite to 1-3 in the conference. it seems like an eternity ago that they dominated ncstate on the road. getsy is only hitting 51% of his passes for the zips. the lone akron bright spot right now is dennis kennedy, who is starting to emerge as a big time back capable of dominating this conference in the next 2 years. but not much else is impressive about akron right now. bg would be another live dog if there was any reason to believe they wouldnt be shanking punts left and right and giving akron free points. if anyone drops significant money on this game, they need their dome examined. bg could win by 14 and it wouldnt be a surprise. akron could win by 24 and it wouldnt be a surprise.

more in a bit.
 

Hokie Fan

Registered User
Forum Member
Aug 24, 2003
1,357
2
0
So what exactlly are your plays????
Can you just say I am playing this team.???
I just dont quite get BG could win by 14 but it wouldnt surprise me if Akron won by 24??

Maybe I am a little slow (ok I am a llittle slow) I do enjoy reading the write ups but I feel I need the Rosetta stone to figure out who you are playing.

Heres an example . Western Mich isnt 14 points better than Miami on paper but the chances of Miami mailing it in if they face early adversity is a possibility. Hey thats great .. but what the heck is the play here???

Could you possibley add at the end of your terrific write ups..Akron 2 units.. Western Mich 1 unit.. East Mich game NO PLay...

I am sorry but I just cant decipher who you are going with


(I have always read your posts especially college hoops and respect your skills.. so please dont take this as a bash)
 

Franky Wright

Registered User
Forum Member
May 28, 2002
3,363
16
0
58
Heaven, oh!!, this isn't it?!
So what exactlly are your plays????
Can you just say I am playing this team.???
I just dont quite get BG could win by 14 but it wouldnt surprise me if Akron won by 24??

Maybe I am a little slow (ok I am a llittle slow) I do enjoy reading the write ups but I feel I need the Rosetta stone to figure out who you are playing.

Heres an example . Western Mich isnt 14 points better than Miami on paper but the chances of Miami mailing it in if they face early adversity is a possibility. Hey thats great .. but what the heck is the play here???

Could you possibley add at the end of your terrific write ups..Akron 2 units.. Western Mich 1 unit.. East Mich game NO PLay...

I am sorry but I just cant decipher who you are going with


(I have always read your posts especially college hoops and respect your skills.. so please dont take this as a bash)


Maybe if you got rid of you drunk in your underwear Avatar you would be able to decipher what Gman is telling you:mj07:

:SIB

Franky............

p.s. Sometimes I feel the same way, but lets realize, that its our picks, and his info, that lets us decide which way we go........

Great Mac info Gman :)


Edit:
And so Im not confused with never adding my picks to the forum by the gay contingent, aka J Lover Boyz.......

Go with Western Michigan..........:sadwave:
 
Last edited:

Hokie Fan

Registered User
Forum Member
Aug 24, 2003
1,357
2
0
That avatar is Mark Messier with Gary Coleman....
How the hell Messier is naked for a towel with a beer with "whacha talking about" boy is as Sublime a picture as I have ever seen....

As for G man.. I have read his stuff for years and always look for his posts when I pull into each forum..

That said.. I just cant figure out what the plays are.. some of the write ups suggest sides for both teams..

To simplify it and post what the play is would make the process alot easier for people
 

Franky Wright

Registered User
Forum Member
May 28, 2002
3,363
16
0
58
Heaven, oh!!, this isn't it?!
How the hell Messier is naked for a towel with a beer with "whacha talking about" boy is as Sublime a picture as I have ever seen....

Well, then tell him/you to get his/your hand out of Gary pants and make a call:scared . By the way, I love Messier, and I knew it was him, just jive'n you a little, its late, GL tomorrow........:mj07:

No harm intended Hokie.........

Franky :)
 

gman2

Registered User
Forum Member
Nov 12, 2002
9,827
16
0
That said.. I just cant figure out what the plays are.. some of the write ups suggest sides for both teams..

for starters, no offense taken.

but you hit the nail on the head. im making a case for both teams, which is what i try to do in all my threads.

i leave the blazing guns and "unload your account" labels and other nonsense to threads and the people who want to buy into that shit.

because it gets repetitve and boring to read generic writeups about how good "team A" is, and how awful "team B" is.

it seems when many bet on games, myopia gets the best of them and all objectivity goes out the window.

its amazing how some can distort stuff to make the side their betting on seem like the '72 dolphins, while the the team they are betting against is suddenly the "st. francis of assisi school for the blind".

every team has strengths.every team has weaknesses. i look objectively at every team in this conference when i watch them play, whether its on tv or in person.

basically, im giving you the flour, the baking soda, the eggs, the brown sugar, and vanilla extract.

..... its up to you to bake the "mac cookies " the way you see fit.

stupid analogy? maybe. but the conference is wacky this year. i know ive got a good read on what these teams are trying to do and what direction these programs are going. but that doesnt mean a damn thing sometimes when the games kick off and all hell breaks lose with some of these wacky teams. aside from teams like ball state and buffalo, the best team in this conference is no more than 4 or 5 points better than the 10th best team in this conference on a neutral field.
 

Hokie Fan

Registered User
Forum Member
Aug 24, 2003
1,357
2
0
G man
Sorry I didnt realize you had pay site

I will try harder reading into the write upss

Have always read your stuff

Good luck...

Hokie
 

gman2

Registered User
Forum Member
Nov 12, 2002
9,827
16
0
hokie:

again, no problem man.

to expand a little on the wmu/miami game -
western michigan is a 13.5 point favorite.
let's say miami wins tomorrow. the average guy will be cursing western michigan because it would look like some huge upset. but the reality is that miami is nowhere near 14 points worse than wmu when you look at the two teams on paper. but for whatever reason, miami is just not playing to their potential, theyre not protecting the qb, and they arent getting consistent play on both sides of the ball. meanwhile, every button wmu is pushing, its working. they have overachieved. in a sense, theyre the most overrated team in the mac. but theyre also one of the best 'teams' in terms of doing the little things right to win games. so when i say miami is capable of winning the game, thats true. yet the reality is that wmu is just doing all the little things to win games, whereas miami is doing every little thing wrong to help them lose games. wmu is playing for a mac championship, miami is playing for, well... nothing. so if miami fumbles a punt or something like that early, they could go "army style" and start imploding. but if miami somehow plays to their potential and things click for them, then wmu could find themselves in a game that goes down to the final possession. so it depends on what you value in your capping. do you want to back an underachieving, but very capable 13.5 point dog who could conceivably win outright, knowing full well they could quit if things go wrong early? or do you want to back an overachieving wmu team who does the little things right, is fundamentally sound, has a lot to play for, and wont beat themselves, but also wont wow you with their offense while they try to cover 13.5. its truly a matter of preference.
 

KG5678

Payback
Forum Member
Dec 15, 2005
705
2
0
Mean Streets
Great points, but after reading that, how can you pick a side? Just makes you want to look the other way and go to the next game.
 

treynolds

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 26, 2002
1,502
27
0
44
Elkhorn, WI
hey gman get my email from jack and send me a link to your site i might be interested. Im probaly up at least 5 dimes tailing you the last few years. Good luck with your plays this weekend
 

stagger lee

Registered User
Forum Member
Jun 29, 2003
122
0
0
Toronto
A wise man once said

mmmmmm ....... cookies

sorry to hijack this thread gman

have always respected your stuff and it?s too bad people want the quick fix. That?s why I appreciate your notes. Have read your MAC stuff for many years and have got a good feel for the conference because of that

I hope I?m still learning how to beat this ?game? and its all the info people provide here that makes it a little easier.

a convoluted thanks for all the info
 

Hokie Fan

Registered User
Forum Member
Aug 24, 2003
1,357
2
0
g man
Thank you for the explanation
Like I said you are one of the best cappers I have come across.
You are also a class guy for taking the time to explain your rationale to me
99% of people would of told me to go F myself.

Thanks for the winners before and good luck to you in the future...
 

gman2

Registered User
Forum Member
Nov 12, 2002
9,827
16
0
caper/treynolds -
for obvious reasons i would like to avoid discussing that kind of thing on jack's forum. and treynolds, id rather have you email me as opposed to the other way around, for somewhat ethical reasons. i try to do things the 'right way' and dont ever want to come across as a solicitor. ever. thats not what its about. so if you want to get in touch, grab my email from jack.


hawkeye -
weather is starting to play a role in these mac games and it will also be a factor this time of year in buffalo. kent coming off a tough game with a lot at stake against ohio. theyre solid. they're also better than buffalo - obviously. but one thing i wil say is that big chalks in the mac have been money burners this year. northern illinois failed as a huge chalk against buffalo and ohio. bowling green failed in their lone big chalk game. central michigan barely covered or pushed in their big chalk game. western michigan failed last week. theres too much parity (and bad play) in this conference to not give every dog on the card strong consideration every week. the only chalk that seems to have any value this week is central michigan out of conference against temple. theyre coming off a bye and temple is coming off that rare win. but chips are another young team capable of doing just enough to win. that said, they are the only chalk that really could lay a hammer down. hope that helps. gl
 

gman2

Registered User
Forum Member
Nov 12, 2002
9,827
16
0
2nd half: bowling green/akron under 23.5
bowling green has a habit of playing high scoring 1st halves only to see the game slow down in the 2nd half. tight game so dont have to worry too much about either team being in catchup mode. if bg can stop getsy, who is playing to his potential for the first time in awhile, the final 30:00 should see 14 or 17 points.
 
Bet on MyBookie
Top