mac tournament: opening round .......

gman2

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ball state at buffalo

these two split the regular season matchups with each holding serve on their home floor. after losing a legit mac player of the year candidate (stovall) early in the year to an acl injury, bsu has spent the entire season trying to find consistent offense. skip mills has done a very nice job carrying the extra load but the cards have rarely played well when he has an off night. buffalo can be as good as anyone in the conference on a given night but they are really held back by a lack of depth on the bench and too much matador defense. they have one of the best inside/outside games in the conference with idbihi and cage. but the problem has been foul trouble and an overload of minutes on the starters. when buffalo goes to their bench, thats when things get dicey. they haven't had anyone step up and give them anything off the bench. still, this is a game buffalo should win comfortably. their lack of depth will hurt their chances of making a deep run in cleveland but the bulls should take care of business tonight. ball state also coming in off a road overtime win on saturday at eastern michigan and now playing in new york 48 hours later. its a bit surprising to see the line drop from its opening 9.5 to its current 8 as this looks to be a "buffalo or nothing" kind of game.

central michigan at ohio

cmu was arguably one of the worst teams in division 1 college basketball in early january. and it was on a saturday in mid-january against ohio that the chippewas hit rock bottom. they were completely embarrassed by ohio, with the bobcats jumping out to a 31-3 lead with 3:30 left in the first half and a 35-7 lead at the break. in that first 20:00, the chips were 2/24 from the field and ohio eventually won 76-44. cmu has actually played pretty respectable basketball over the last month but thats all relative. they are a bad, bad basketball team. the only thing that could keep them in the game tonight is a lack of focus by their opponent. luckily for them, they drew ohio in the first round, who has been the biggest underachiever in the conference this year. its crazy to think that many projected ohio to be the #1 team in the mac this year and even be in contention for an at-large ncaa bid at this time of year. but here they are on march 6th playing an opening round game at home just to qualify for the mac tourney in cleveland. its been interesting to read and listen to some quotes from ohio players over the last few weeks. its like they have just been passing time and didnt give two shits about the mac regular season because they were still mac champs until someone knocked them out in march. the scary thing is that that arrogance isn't completely unjustified. they're capable of 'flipping the switch' and getting back to the mac title game. one other note on cmu -- sefton barrett (their leading scorer and rebounder) did not play in the season finale against toledo the other day.

bowling green at toledo

biggest rivalry in the mac, but still a game of two teams going in completely opposite directions. toledo has won 7 of 8 (and probably should have won all 8 if not for a final minute meltdown on the road in detroit) while bowling green has lost 7 in a row and 10 of 11 (with the last 6 losses all coming by double digits, including last saturday's embarrassing 85-48 loss at ohio). the weird thing about that ohio game was that bowling green was down just 23-18 at the 10:00 of the first half but then went completely in the tank and scored just 30 points in the final 30:00 of basketball. despite the pathetic play from bgsu over the last month of the season, they still might be the best dog in the four mac games. it would be very surprising if a dan dakich team was completely blown out to end the season, especially against their biggest rival. certainly, dakich cant put on the orange jersey and shorts and make shots for bgsu but it would be a definite shock if the falcons mailed it in against the rockets tonight. bg sorely misses the offensive production from steven wright off the bench (who quit the team 2 weeks ago) but this chalk is still a bit steep tonight.

eastern michigan at western michigan

western michigan swept the two games this year but won by a combined 9 points. eastern michigan has shown steady progress this season and thats encouraging for the future. but theyre so young that they almost find ways to lose games, thus making them "Un-backable" as a dog. western michigan is a dog shit team themselves but they still have some holdovers from some good wmu teams that knew how to win. sometimes thats enough. regardless, the winner of this game gets the privilege of losing to akron on thursday in cleveland. neither team is particularly appealing in this one. and even though wmu is no prize, its tough to back emich when you consider how young and inexperienced they are along with the fact that underdogs are 0-10 straight up in the opening round of the mac tournament the last few years.

"gun to head" plays:

buffalo minus the points because of the more consistent offense and the bsu overtime/travel

bowling green plus the points simply out of respect for dakich as a coach especially against a rival.

ohio minus the points because they really do have the talent to all the sudden decide to start playing again.

and i'll just take one for the team and not even pick a side in emu/wmu. a bullet in the head from point blank range is less painful than putting money behind either one of these teams.
 

vinnie

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hey g what do you make of the mac line moves in hoops ?

I see Buff is down to 7.5 now.
 
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GFarrow84

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i like your assessment of the buffalo game. I like them to cover just because they seem to play well and win by DD in big games at home. only thing that scares me is i just talked to my friend and he got there at 530, and he got front row of the student section. last year if you got there at 530 ud be lucky if there were any student tickets left. so i dont know that your gonna have the usual intense crowd we've seen in big games over the last couple of years here. still i think UB runs away with this one. im going to play it but i gotta admit its not one of my fav plays ive had on this team. my personal advice to anyone whos not a gambling junkie like me is to stay away from the game. it could go either way
 

gman2

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vinnie:

just got in and saw your post. obviously this advice does no good for tonight, but i will say that i almost dont even bother paying attention to line moves in the mac. far more often than not, the line moves prove to be incorrect. in fact, one of the biggest mac plays this year (buffalo against ohio in the first meeting) ended up having the line steamed from buffalo -2 to ohio -1.5 near tip off and the bulls beat the shit out of OU. so many line moves in football were way off too in this conference.
 

homedog

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and i'll just take one for the team and not even pick a side in emu/wmu. a bullet in the head from point blank range is less painful than putting money behind either one of these teams.

Turned out to be good advice gman2. Jekyl and Hyde.
 

GFarrow84

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BGFalcon said:
I can't resist...



:shrug:

do you seriously not have anything better to do? if you read my post overall the jist of it was they could run away with it but its not a good play cause it could go either way. you want me to go into your posts and just pick random sentences you say to make you sound like an idiot. seriously get a life, how old are you? your probably older then me and thats pretty sad.

oh and by the way i was pretty spot on with my analysis because the game pushed. so go **** yourself. i guess your just bitter cause your team got pounded in the ass tonight. good luck next year.
 
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