TRENDS = Events in the past that help predict the future
I have put together similar ?cheat? sheets for myself the last couple of seasons and find it easier to have them all handy rather than flip through the various football mags each week.
I?ve tried to include trends that I find relative (but what is relative?) and have used Phil Steele, StatFox and Marc Lawrence mags for these ?cheat? sheets.
The general trends are more or less at the top of each team?s list and then I?ve tried to list the trends in chronological order for each team?s schedule.
All the stats are against the spread, unless otherwise noted.
AKRON (E)
8-3 vs poor pass def (allow > 8 pya)
10-2 after 2 or more ATS losses
14-7 HD
2-6-1 prior Kent St (Virg)
2-8 conf open (Kent St); Kent St series vis 6-0
3-14 vs Mac West (N Ill, Ball St)
Ohio series vis 3-8
Miami Oh series host 8-2-1; 1-4 in final home
BALL STATE (W)
8-16 vs team with lose record
8-2 off loss > 17 pts
5-11 as HD; 2-9 as HD < 20
2-11 off BB road (W Mich, N Ill)
5-11 off conf win
9-18 conf road
3-7 vs Mac East (Akron, C Fla)
7-18 on turf (Mizz, Toledo, Akron, C Mich)
1-6 home open (Bost Coll)
3-6 vs Big 10 (Purd)
0-6 vs Big 12 (Mizzou)
W Mich series vis 3-8; 1-7 conf home open; 1-8 home off non-conf
1-6 vs N Ill
BOWLING GREEN (W)
9-3 vs poor offence (avg < 310 ypg)
16-7 vs team with lose record
7-2 non-conf
9-1 off non-conf game
11-4 as HD
16-6-2 conf host
2-11 road vs opp > .500
8-18 on turf (N Ill, Temp, C Mich, Ohio, Toledo)
10-4 road open (Okla)
1-6 vs C Mich
8-1 home off BB away (Ball St)
10-2 vs Ohio
E Mich series vis 0-6
3-8 vs W Mich
5-0-1 final home (Marsh)
Toledo series vis 0-5
BUFFALO (E)
10-4 vs team that allow > 31 ppg
5-15 when allow > 28 pts
0-8 vs Mac West (E Mich, C Mich)
2-7 in 2nd BB road (Ohio); 4-0 vs Ohio
Kent St series host 4-1
CENTRAL FLORIDA (E)
2-8 off road win
3-7 as dog 3.5 to 10 pts
11-4 RD > 11
1-5 as HD
2-12 in 2nd BB road (Buff, Marsh)
6-1 road open (Wisc)
1-6 vs Big East (W Virg)
0-6 before bye (Penn St)
1-4 final home (Kent St)
CENTRAL MICHIGAN (W)
6-14 off SU win
6-31 when allow > 28 pts
2-12 off conf win
8-22 as RD
5-15 vs non-conf; 2-11 non-conf road
6-1 as DD HD
3-7 in season open (Indiana); 1-7 vs Big 10
4-10 in 2nd of BB road (Mich St, Toledo)
2-5 vs Kent St
B Green series dog 7-1
1-5 vs N Ill
W Mich series host 7-3
E Mich series dog 10-4
4-9 final road (Buff)
3-6 final home; 5-2 vs Ball St
EASTERN MICHIGAN (W)
11-4 off road loss > 21 pts
2-8 vs poor offence (avg < 285 ypg)
9-4 as conf DD RD
3-18 vs non-conf
3-11 line season open (Buff)
1-14 on grass (Fla, Ball St, B Green)
1-5 in HC game (Idaho)
9-2 conf road open (Ball St); 1-4 vs Ball St
9-5 vs W Mich
B Green series host 6-0
9-5 vs C Mich
5-9 in final home (N Ill)
KENT STATE (E)
4-9 vs poor pass def (allow > 8 pya)
8-1 as dog L yr
5-11 conf host
6-1 in 1st BB away (C Mich)
3-8 in 2nd BB road (Miami Oh); 4-1 vs Mia Oh
E Mich series vis 6-2
3-9 in season finale (Cent Fla)
MARSHALL (E)
8-3 when line +3 to -3
18-8 vs team with win record
3-16 off non-conf game
8-13-1 as DD fave
2-6 vs non-conf
2-7 as RD
9-16 conf road
9-2-1 as dog/fave < 7
3-8 on grass (Ohio St, Georg, B Green)
1-4 after bye (Mia Oh); 1-5 conf open
MIAMI, Ohio (E)
15-6 off conf win
10-5 vs non-conf
14-3 as HD
2-7 as conf RF >19
9-4 conf road
15-5 as DD conf HF
7-1-1 as dog < 7
Cinc series dog 7-3
8-2 vs Ohio; 13-4 off BB road (Ohio)
1-5 vs Marsh; series dog 1-5
9-3 in final home (Toledo); series host 2-5
2-8-1 vs Akron; 1-5 final road
NORTHERN ILLINOIS (W)
15-3 vs poor rush offence (avg < 120 ypg)
7-2 non-conf; 8-2 non-conf dog > 8
11-6 as HF
12-7 as conf host
14-9 conf road
7-1 off SU dog win
4-0 vs ACC (Mary)
13-5 on grass (Mary, Iowa St, Cent Fla, Ball St)
1-6 vs Big 12 (Iowa St)
7-0 in HC game (C Mich); 5-1 vs C Mich
6-1 vs W Mich
6-1 vs Ball St
2-7 final home (Toledo); 10-1 off BB road
4-9 final road (E Mich)
OHIO (E)
12-5 vs good pass team (avg > 250 ypg)
3-8 vs team with lose record
3-10 after 2 or more ATS wins
5-11 off home win
1-7 off SU fave loss
4-10 vs Mia Oh; 1-5 conf road open
1-4 vs Buff
Marsh series host 6-1
Toledo series vis 6-1
2-10 vs B Green; 6-2 in HC game
8-5 vs Kent St
TOLEDO (W)
13-1 as fave 3.5 to 10 pts
8-3 vs poor run defence (allow > 200 ypg)
8-4-1 as conf RD
5-9-2 as RD
21-11 at home
15-5 conf host
10-1 vs opp < .500
9-2 as conf fave
7-3 conf open (E Mich); series vis 7-2
10-4 vs W Mich
7-2 vs C Mich; 1-6 before bye
9-3 after bye (Mia Oh)
8-1-1 vs N Ill
11-3 final home (B Green); series host 5-0
WESTERN MICHIGAN (W)
13-6 vs poor defence (allow > 31 ppg)
1-9 revenging a loss (Conn, Toledo, N Ill, B Green, Marsh)
4-10 at home; 0-7 as HD
1-6 vs good pass team (avg > 250 ypg)
1-9 after score > 30 pts
6-4 vs Big 10 (Ill)
4-10 conf open (Ball St); 9-1 before bye
4-10 vs Toledo
5-9 vs E Mich
1-6 vs N Ill; 1-5 after E Mich
4-7 vs C Mich
8-3 vs B Green
9-5 final home (Mia Oh)
8-3 final road (Marsh)
I have put together similar ?cheat? sheets for myself the last couple of seasons and find it easier to have them all handy rather than flip through the various football mags each week.
I?ve tried to include trends that I find relative (but what is relative?) and have used Phil Steele, StatFox and Marc Lawrence mags for these ?cheat? sheets.
The general trends are more or less at the top of each team?s list and then I?ve tried to list the trends in chronological order for each team?s schedule.
All the stats are against the spread, unless otherwise noted.
AKRON (E)
8-3 vs poor pass def (allow > 8 pya)
10-2 after 2 or more ATS losses
14-7 HD
2-6-1 prior Kent St (Virg)
2-8 conf open (Kent St); Kent St series vis 6-0
3-14 vs Mac West (N Ill, Ball St)
Ohio series vis 3-8
Miami Oh series host 8-2-1; 1-4 in final home
BALL STATE (W)
8-16 vs team with lose record
8-2 off loss > 17 pts
5-11 as HD; 2-9 as HD < 20
2-11 off BB road (W Mich, N Ill)
5-11 off conf win
9-18 conf road
3-7 vs Mac East (Akron, C Fla)
7-18 on turf (Mizz, Toledo, Akron, C Mich)
1-6 home open (Bost Coll)
3-6 vs Big 10 (Purd)
0-6 vs Big 12 (Mizzou)
W Mich series vis 3-8; 1-7 conf home open; 1-8 home off non-conf
1-6 vs N Ill
BOWLING GREEN (W)
9-3 vs poor offence (avg < 310 ypg)
16-7 vs team with lose record
7-2 non-conf
9-1 off non-conf game
11-4 as HD
16-6-2 conf host
2-11 road vs opp > .500
8-18 on turf (N Ill, Temp, C Mich, Ohio, Toledo)
10-4 road open (Okla)
1-6 vs C Mich
8-1 home off BB away (Ball St)
10-2 vs Ohio
E Mich series vis 0-6
3-8 vs W Mich
5-0-1 final home (Marsh)
Toledo series vis 0-5
BUFFALO (E)
10-4 vs team that allow > 31 ppg
5-15 when allow > 28 pts
0-8 vs Mac West (E Mich, C Mich)
2-7 in 2nd BB road (Ohio); 4-0 vs Ohio
Kent St series host 4-1
CENTRAL FLORIDA (E)
2-8 off road win
3-7 as dog 3.5 to 10 pts
11-4 RD > 11
1-5 as HD
2-12 in 2nd BB road (Buff, Marsh)
6-1 road open (Wisc)
1-6 vs Big East (W Virg)
0-6 before bye (Penn St)
1-4 final home (Kent St)
CENTRAL MICHIGAN (W)
6-14 off SU win
6-31 when allow > 28 pts
2-12 off conf win
8-22 as RD
5-15 vs non-conf; 2-11 non-conf road
6-1 as DD HD
3-7 in season open (Indiana); 1-7 vs Big 10
4-10 in 2nd of BB road (Mich St, Toledo)
2-5 vs Kent St
B Green series dog 7-1
1-5 vs N Ill
W Mich series host 7-3
E Mich series dog 10-4
4-9 final road (Buff)
3-6 final home; 5-2 vs Ball St
EASTERN MICHIGAN (W)
11-4 off road loss > 21 pts
2-8 vs poor offence (avg < 285 ypg)
9-4 as conf DD RD
3-18 vs non-conf
3-11 line season open (Buff)
1-14 on grass (Fla, Ball St, B Green)
1-5 in HC game (Idaho)
9-2 conf road open (Ball St); 1-4 vs Ball St
9-5 vs W Mich
B Green series host 6-0
9-5 vs C Mich
5-9 in final home (N Ill)
KENT STATE (E)
4-9 vs poor pass def (allow > 8 pya)
8-1 as dog L yr
5-11 conf host
6-1 in 1st BB away (C Mich)
3-8 in 2nd BB road (Miami Oh); 4-1 vs Mia Oh
E Mich series vis 6-2
3-9 in season finale (Cent Fla)
MARSHALL (E)
8-3 when line +3 to -3
18-8 vs team with win record
3-16 off non-conf game
8-13-1 as DD fave
2-6 vs non-conf
2-7 as RD
9-16 conf road
9-2-1 as dog/fave < 7
3-8 on grass (Ohio St, Georg, B Green)
1-4 after bye (Mia Oh); 1-5 conf open
MIAMI, Ohio (E)
15-6 off conf win
10-5 vs non-conf
14-3 as HD
2-7 as conf RF >19
9-4 conf road
15-5 as DD conf HF
7-1-1 as dog < 7
Cinc series dog 7-3
8-2 vs Ohio; 13-4 off BB road (Ohio)
1-5 vs Marsh; series dog 1-5
9-3 in final home (Toledo); series host 2-5
2-8-1 vs Akron; 1-5 final road
NORTHERN ILLINOIS (W)
15-3 vs poor rush offence (avg < 120 ypg)
7-2 non-conf; 8-2 non-conf dog > 8
11-6 as HF
12-7 as conf host
14-9 conf road
7-1 off SU dog win
4-0 vs ACC (Mary)
13-5 on grass (Mary, Iowa St, Cent Fla, Ball St)
1-6 vs Big 12 (Iowa St)
7-0 in HC game (C Mich); 5-1 vs C Mich
6-1 vs W Mich
6-1 vs Ball St
2-7 final home (Toledo); 10-1 off BB road
4-9 final road (E Mich)
OHIO (E)
12-5 vs good pass team (avg > 250 ypg)
3-8 vs team with lose record
3-10 after 2 or more ATS wins
5-11 off home win
1-7 off SU fave loss
4-10 vs Mia Oh; 1-5 conf road open
1-4 vs Buff
Marsh series host 6-1
Toledo series vis 6-1
2-10 vs B Green; 6-2 in HC game
8-5 vs Kent St
TOLEDO (W)
13-1 as fave 3.5 to 10 pts
8-3 vs poor run defence (allow > 200 ypg)
8-4-1 as conf RD
5-9-2 as RD
21-11 at home
15-5 conf host
10-1 vs opp < .500
9-2 as conf fave
7-3 conf open (E Mich); series vis 7-2
10-4 vs W Mich
7-2 vs C Mich; 1-6 before bye
9-3 after bye (Mia Oh)
8-1-1 vs N Ill
11-3 final home (B Green); series host 5-0
WESTERN MICHIGAN (W)
13-6 vs poor defence (allow > 31 ppg)
1-9 revenging a loss (Conn, Toledo, N Ill, B Green, Marsh)
4-10 at home; 0-7 as HD
1-6 vs good pass team (avg > 250 ypg)
1-9 after score > 30 pts
6-4 vs Big 10 (Ill)
4-10 conf open (Ball St); 9-1 before bye
4-10 vs Toledo
5-9 vs E Mich
1-6 vs N Ill; 1-5 after E Mich
4-7 vs C Mich
8-3 vs B Green
9-5 final home (Mia Oh)
8-3 final road (Marsh)
