Have a friend of mine who is an investment broker who passed this along to me. Thought you guys might want to look into it.
"Hey you can read up on my buddy here. http://www.chriscamillo.com/ he?s actually just finished writing his book ?laughing at wall street? because the majority of his pics are not wall street pics. He tells people like me to buy stocks you know and believe in. Which is what he did in buying Snaple stock back in the day.
I talk to him every day so if you have any questions let me know."
Chris Camillo
When Valuing Delcath (DCTH), Don?t Forget the Chemo Multiplier
Posted by Chris in Covestor on March 11th, 2010
Over the coming weeks Delcath (DCTH) will release long
awaited phase III data on its Percutaneous Hepatic Perfusion (?PHP?) System, a
minimally invasive, repeatable platform technology to treat cancer using
ultra-targeted doses of highly concentrated chemotherapy. It?s a novel, yet easy to understand
procedure that employs catheter balloons to isolate the patient?s liver
chamber. Ultra high doses of
chemotherapy are injected into the sealed liver chamber, manually extracted
through the patient?s blood, cleaned using carbon filters, and returned to the
body nearly chemo free. More
chemotherapy where you want it, less where you don?t.
The pending FDA phase III trial is limited in scope to secondary
liver cancer brought on by Melanoma, a market projected to be as high as $450
million in the US. But don?t let
that number fool you as it is widely expected that the PHP system, once FDA
approved, will be used aggressively off label for other types of liver
cancer. This is because there
exist few if any effective alternative forms of treatment. Cancer of the liver is the 5th
most common cancer in the world, killing almost all patients who have it within
a year. Once you account for foreign markets, specifically in Asia where the
incidence of liver cancer and related disease is 4X what we see in the US,
Delcath is easily staring at a multi billion-dollar market.
As with Dendreon?s (DNDN) immunotherapy platform, Delcath
has expressed its intention to expand its PHP platform to other organs (kidney,
lung, brain, pelvis) which if nothing else makes the company a much more
intriguing takeover candidate for large pharmaceutical companies sizing up the
company?s long term upside. And
that is where the Delcath valuation story starts to get interesting. The company?s minimally invasive PHP
system, which can be repeated on a patient up to 6 times, requires dosing of
chemotherapy over 10X higher than the FDA-approved dose via systemic IV
chemotherapy. And because Delcath?s
PHP system manages to isolate toxicity to the liver, patients are less likely
to decline chemotherapy treatment due to conventional chemotherapy side
effects. For pharmaceutical
companies with billions of dollars in chemo drug sales at stake ? Delcath?s
breakthrough drug delivery platform, with potential to deliver super doses of
chemo, clearly stands to be a difference maker. The question is ? how do these
ancillary chemo drug sales for a prospective acquirer factor in to Delcath?s
current stock price valuation?
That question will become much more pertinent should Delcath publish
positive phase III data results next month.
Disclosure: Author holds a long position in Delcath (DCTH).
Related Stocks: DCTH, DNDN
"Hey you can read up on my buddy here. http://www.chriscamillo.com/ he?s actually just finished writing his book ?laughing at wall street? because the majority of his pics are not wall street pics. He tells people like me to buy stocks you know and believe in. Which is what he did in buying Snaple stock back in the day.
I talk to him every day so if you have any questions let me know."
Chris Camillo
When Valuing Delcath (DCTH), Don?t Forget the Chemo Multiplier
Posted by Chris in Covestor on March 11th, 2010
Over the coming weeks Delcath (DCTH) will release long
awaited phase III data on its Percutaneous Hepatic Perfusion (?PHP?) System, a
minimally invasive, repeatable platform technology to treat cancer using
ultra-targeted doses of highly concentrated chemotherapy. It?s a novel, yet easy to understand
procedure that employs catheter balloons to isolate the patient?s liver
chamber. Ultra high doses of
chemotherapy are injected into the sealed liver chamber, manually extracted
through the patient?s blood, cleaned using carbon filters, and returned to the
body nearly chemo free. More
chemotherapy where you want it, less where you don?t.
The pending FDA phase III trial is limited in scope to secondary
liver cancer brought on by Melanoma, a market projected to be as high as $450
million in the US. But don?t let
that number fool you as it is widely expected that the PHP system, once FDA
approved, will be used aggressively off label for other types of liver
cancer. This is because there
exist few if any effective alternative forms of treatment. Cancer of the liver is the 5th
most common cancer in the world, killing almost all patients who have it within
a year. Once you account for foreign markets, specifically in Asia where the
incidence of liver cancer and related disease is 4X what we see in the US,
Delcath is easily staring at a multi billion-dollar market.
As with Dendreon?s (DNDN) immunotherapy platform, Delcath
has expressed its intention to expand its PHP platform to other organs (kidney,
lung, brain, pelvis) which if nothing else makes the company a much more
intriguing takeover candidate for large pharmaceutical companies sizing up the
company?s long term upside. And
that is where the Delcath valuation story starts to get interesting. The company?s minimally invasive PHP
system, which can be repeated on a patient up to 6 times, requires dosing of
chemotherapy over 10X higher than the FDA-approved dose via systemic IV
chemotherapy. And because Delcath?s
PHP system manages to isolate toxicity to the liver, patients are less likely
to decline chemotherapy treatment due to conventional chemotherapy side
effects. For pharmaceutical
companies with billions of dollars in chemo drug sales at stake ? Delcath?s
breakthrough drug delivery platform, with potential to deliver super doses of
chemo, clearly stands to be a difference maker. The question is ? how do these
ancillary chemo drug sales for a prospective acquirer factor in to Delcath?s
current stock price valuation?
That question will become much more pertinent should Delcath publish
positive phase III data results next month.
Disclosure: Author holds a long position in Delcath (DCTH).
Related Stocks: DCTH, DNDN
