Sometimes on the gaming forums, one sees the mention of "kelly betting" or the "kelly criterion"...
I'm sure somewhere on the tech section of the *****forum, a better account exists than this...
...but this is what I recall reading from the late Huey Mahl's Handicapping Journal known as "First Twenty"....
..in this first post, i'll explain what the Kelly Criterion actually represents to the bettor
WHAT THE KELLY CRITERION ACTUALLY STATES:
for the professional gambler wagering into a positive, quantifiable edge...
...it states the OPTIMAL bet size as a percentage of bankroll...
...for example, a player who, IN THE LONG RUN, could CONTINUOSLY pick at 57%(4 wins for every 3 losses) @-110.....
...should bet 9.7% of his available wad on each discreet(non-simultaneous) betting event.
I believe it was Armani or Bad Co. at the ***** Forum who stated we all need our heads examined :smile105: since 94% of all who bet sports are losers.
Kelly Betting shows the truth of those words...for the winning picker can diminish profitability and even ruin himself by overbetting the percentage...in factttttt....
UNDERBETTING by the same amount as one OVERBETS by shows the same diminished level of profitability....buttt...
...one(presumably those 6% Armani spoke of) increases one's bankroll safety....
..better to underbet, Kelly States...not better "profit"-wise, but "safety-wise"
Kelly Betting will show you how to obtain optimal returns for various positive wagering proficiency levels.
WINNING PROFICIENCY @ -110
52.38% WINNING PROFICIENCY....... 0% OPTIMAL BET SIZE
53.1%.............................................1.5%
53.85%............................................3.1%
54.54%.............................................4.6%
55.55%.............................................6.7%
57%...................................................9.7%
In the next post, i'll relate what Mahl stated about the Kelly Criterion...and his musings on the possible origins
I'm sure somewhere on the tech section of the *****forum, a better account exists than this...
...but this is what I recall reading from the late Huey Mahl's Handicapping Journal known as "First Twenty"....
..in this first post, i'll explain what the Kelly Criterion actually represents to the bettor
WHAT THE KELLY CRITERION ACTUALLY STATES:
for the professional gambler wagering into a positive, quantifiable edge...
...it states the OPTIMAL bet size as a percentage of bankroll...
...for example, a player who, IN THE LONG RUN, could CONTINUOSLY pick at 57%(4 wins for every 3 losses) @-110.....
...should bet 9.7% of his available wad on each discreet(non-simultaneous) betting event.
I believe it was Armani or Bad Co. at the ***** Forum who stated we all need our heads examined :smile105: since 94% of all who bet sports are losers.
Kelly Betting shows the truth of those words...for the winning picker can diminish profitability and even ruin himself by overbetting the percentage...in factttttt....
UNDERBETTING by the same amount as one OVERBETS by shows the same diminished level of profitability....buttt...
...one(presumably those 6% Armani spoke of) increases one's bankroll safety....
..better to underbet, Kelly States...not better "profit"-wise, but "safety-wise"
Kelly Betting will show you how to obtain optimal returns for various positive wagering proficiency levels.
WINNING PROFICIENCY @ -110
52.38% WINNING PROFICIENCY....... 0% OPTIMAL BET SIZE
53.1%.............................................1.5%
53.85%............................................3.1%
54.54%.............................................4.6%
55.55%.............................................6.7%
57%...................................................9.7%
In the next post, i'll relate what Mahl stated about the Kelly Criterion...and his musings on the possible origins
