Anyone else find this odd that he sees the spread being off by 15 pts...seems like that would make Duke the pick
Mejia has Maryland winning
- Thread starter ADot
- Start date
maryland has proven over the years that theyre one acc team who does not fear playing at cameron. certainly those were with better teams but a lot of that is gary williams imo and the way he prepares them to play on the road. i know maryland has struggled at times this year but this isnt the same duke team as in the past either. devils havent had a solid wire-to-wire home ass-kicking all season. normally thats unheard of for duke. but they have been kinda average at home this year. is duke capable of winning by 20? absolutely. but theres a lot of value with maryland at +900 with all the talent they have and the way theyve williams has fared with his teams at cameron in the past. think of how bad some of the teams are that you can bet a +900 moneyline for. with maryland, youre getting a team that on any given night can compete with anyone. obviously the line is there for a reason but from a pure value standpoint, maryland is tempting.
I don't know if I agree with Maryland winning outright, but I show they should be within the number. (12) Line is what, 14?
I'm layin off that one.
I'm layin off that one.
Duke -12.5
Duke is playing it's best ball right now. Maryland is struggling and getting beat bad on the boards in conference play -10 rpg, while Duke is outrebounding their conference foes by 2.2 rpg. Maryland is giving up over 86 ppg vs conference foes and I expect Duke to score atleast 80 points tonite. Duke will have revenge on their minds, since the were beat on their own home court last time these two met. This game has a very strong 85+% Chance Play backing Duke with a predicted 20+ point blowout:
Play Against - Road underdogs of 10 or more points (MARYLAND) - off an upset loss to a conference rival as a home favorite against opponent off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival.
(23-4 since 1997.) (85.2%, +18.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (27-1)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 15.2
The average score in these games was: Team 83.3, Opponent 62.4 (Average point differential = +20.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 8 (29.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (12-2).
Foxsheets simulator also predicts a blowout in this contest:
Projection Shooting 3pt Shots Free Throws Rebounding
Teams Score Edge FGM-A Pct. FGM-A Pct. FTM-A Pct. Tot. OFF TO
MARYLAND 67 25-61 41.1% 4-16 23.7% 13-19 70.5% 39 13 15
DUKE 86 29-63 46.6% 9-24 37.2% 19-24 79.0% 47 16 13
Duke is playing it's best ball right now. Maryland is struggling and getting beat bad on the boards in conference play -10 rpg, while Duke is outrebounding their conference foes by 2.2 rpg. Maryland is giving up over 86 ppg vs conference foes and I expect Duke to score atleast 80 points tonite. Duke will have revenge on their minds, since the were beat on their own home court last time these two met. This game has a very strong 85+% Chance Play backing Duke with a predicted 20+ point blowout:
Play Against - Road underdogs of 10 or more points (MARYLAND) - off an upset loss to a conference rival as a home favorite against opponent off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival.
(23-4 since 1997.) (85.2%, +18.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (27-1)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 15.2
The average score in these games was: Team 83.3, Opponent 62.4 (Average point differential = +20.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 8 (29.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (12-2).
Foxsheets simulator also predicts a blowout in this contest:
Projection Shooting 3pt Shots Free Throws Rebounding
Teams Score Edge FGM-A Pct. FGM-A Pct. FTM-A Pct. Tot. OFF TO
MARYLAND 67 25-61 41.1% 4-16 23.7% 13-19 70.5% 39 13 15
DUKE 86 29-63 46.6% 9-24 37.2% 19-24 79.0% 47 16 13
