MICHIGAN/MINNESOTA Under 53.5 - It seems strange to see such a high total posted in a Big Ten game involving what has become two defensive-minded teams. Michigan always defends well once the conference bell rings, as they have allowed only 19.5 points per game in conference play since 2000. I think that their shootout last week with Iowa was an aberration, as they allowed just 20.3 PPG vs. Big Ten opponents last season with the UNDER going 5-3, and they held Indiana to 17 points in their conference opener this season. They now face a Minnesota team that has been playing some outstanding defense of their own, surrendering just 13.7 PPG so far this season. In fact, the MOST points that they have allowed in one game over their first 6 contests is 20, and they allowed 14 and 17 points respectively in their 2 conference affairs. Most importantly, both defenses do a good job of stuffing the run, with Michigan allowing 3.0 yards per rush and Minnesota allowing 3.4 yards per carry. I generally subscribe to the ?Good defense stops good offense theory?, and I do not expect these offenses to have much success if forced to go to the air without a supporting running game. Add this all up, and I do not see this contest topping 45 points or so.
