Michigan vs Illinois
- Thread starter big papi
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Dr. Bob selection
Dr. Bob selection
3 Star Selection
***ILLINOIS 31 Michigan (-2.5) 23
05:00 PM Pacific, 20-Oct-07
Illinois lost at Iowa last week, but I?ll come right back with them today against a Michigan team that is still overrated. Michigan has bounced back from losses to Appalachian State and Oregon to climb back into the top 25 and to sit atop the Big 10 standings. However, Michigan hasn?t suddenly become a great team just because they?ve won 5 straight games, just as Illinois hasn?t suddenly become a mediocre team because of last week?s loss. That loss actually sets up the Illini in a positive 53-22 ATS situation that plays on home underdogs after losing as a road favorite of 3 points or more the previous week and Ron Zook has always had his teams prepared to play their best against good teams. Going back to his days at Florida Zook?s teams are 12-4-1 ATS as an underdog in conference play against a team with a win percentage of greater than .667, including 5-0 ATS since last season. Michigan, meanwhile, is just 5-15 ATS as a road favorite the week after winning and covering the spread under coach Carr so they?re not likely to play well again this week after beating up on an overrated Purdue team last week. The Illini are also the better team even if I dismiss Michigan?s horrible defensive performance in their first two games. Michigan is only 0.2 yards per play better than average defensively for the season (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team), but the Wolverines have been 0.6 yppl better than average since Big 10 play began 4 weeks ago and that?s the level I?ll use for them. Michigan?s pass defense has really tightened up, but they are still just mediocre in recent games defending the run and they won?t be able to stop Illinois from running the ball against them this week. The Illini have averaged 6.1 yards per rushing play this season (against teams that would allow 4.7 yprp to an average team) and RB Rashard Mendenhall (839 yards at 6.5 ypr) and mobile quarterbacks Juice Williams and Edde McGee will have good success in this game (Michigan has had trouble with mobile quarterbacks this season). Overall, the Illini attack is 0.5 yppl better than average, which is about the same as Michigan?s recent defensive rating. Michigan?s offense is vastly overrated, as the Wolverines have averaged only 5.4 yppl this season to teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team. The Wolverines are better when both quarterback Chad Henne and star receiver Mario Manningham are both in the game, but I they still rate at just 0.3 yppl better than average in that scenario. Illinois is 0.5 yppl better than average defensively and they are especially good defending the run (4.0 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.7 yprp), so Michigan?s mediocre rushing attack (4.9 yprp against teams that would allow 4.8 yprp) isn?t likely to be effective in this game. Not only is Illinois better from the line of scrimmage than Michigan (even after discarding Michigan?s first few defensive games) but the Illini are also significantly better on special teams and my math model favors Illinois by 8 ? points. Illinois beat Penn State on this field a few weeks ago and they should beat Michigan too. I?ll take Illinois in a 3-Star Best Bet as an underdog of +1 or more and I?d make Illinois a 2-Star Best Bet at pick or -1 point.
Dr. Bob selection
3 Star Selection
***ILLINOIS 31 Michigan (-2.5) 23
05:00 PM Pacific, 20-Oct-07
Illinois lost at Iowa last week, but I?ll come right back with them today against a Michigan team that is still overrated. Michigan has bounced back from losses to Appalachian State and Oregon to climb back into the top 25 and to sit atop the Big 10 standings. However, Michigan hasn?t suddenly become a great team just because they?ve won 5 straight games, just as Illinois hasn?t suddenly become a mediocre team because of last week?s loss. That loss actually sets up the Illini in a positive 53-22 ATS situation that plays on home underdogs after losing as a road favorite of 3 points or more the previous week and Ron Zook has always had his teams prepared to play their best against good teams. Going back to his days at Florida Zook?s teams are 12-4-1 ATS as an underdog in conference play against a team with a win percentage of greater than .667, including 5-0 ATS since last season. Michigan, meanwhile, is just 5-15 ATS as a road favorite the week after winning and covering the spread under coach Carr so they?re not likely to play well again this week after beating up on an overrated Purdue team last week. The Illini are also the better team even if I dismiss Michigan?s horrible defensive performance in their first two games. Michigan is only 0.2 yards per play better than average defensively for the season (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team), but the Wolverines have been 0.6 yppl better than average since Big 10 play began 4 weeks ago and that?s the level I?ll use for them. Michigan?s pass defense has really tightened up, but they are still just mediocre in recent games defending the run and they won?t be able to stop Illinois from running the ball against them this week. The Illini have averaged 6.1 yards per rushing play this season (against teams that would allow 4.7 yprp to an average team) and RB Rashard Mendenhall (839 yards at 6.5 ypr) and mobile quarterbacks Juice Williams and Edde McGee will have good success in this game (Michigan has had trouble with mobile quarterbacks this season). Overall, the Illini attack is 0.5 yppl better than average, which is about the same as Michigan?s recent defensive rating. Michigan?s offense is vastly overrated, as the Wolverines have averaged only 5.4 yppl this season to teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team. The Wolverines are better when both quarterback Chad Henne and star receiver Mario Manningham are both in the game, but I they still rate at just 0.3 yppl better than average in that scenario. Illinois is 0.5 yppl better than average defensively and they are especially good defending the run (4.0 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.7 yprp), so Michigan?s mediocre rushing attack (4.9 yprp against teams that would allow 4.8 yprp) isn?t likely to be effective in this game. Not only is Illinois better from the line of scrimmage than Michigan (even after discarding Michigan?s first few defensive games) but the Illini are also significantly better on special teams and my math model favors Illinois by 8 ? points. Illinois beat Penn State on this field a few weeks ago and they should beat Michigan too. I?ll take Illinois in a 3-Star Best Bet as an underdog of +1 or more and I?d make Illinois a 2-Star Best Bet at pick or -1 point.
Very true
Very true
I am a member and all of his picks drop 2 to 3 points across the board right after he comes out with his picks.
Very true
I am a member and all of his picks drop 2 to 3 points across the board right after he comes out with his picks.
What are Dr. Bob's other picks this weekend? I figure we should know despite the fact he's been very cold lately.
Off the top of my head, the big line moves from yeserday would indicate DrB is likely on these:
Ohio St, Oregon, Ill, Mem, Fresno and Troy
I wish I had waited on Wash and glad I waited on Mch St. GL
Ohio St, Oregon, Ill, Mem, Fresno and Troy
I wish I had waited on Wash and glad I waited on Mch St. GL
got these from another site fwiw. his picks appear to be ohio st, memphis, illinois, fresno, and troy st. good fade material i guess. :shrug:
You are probably right about fading him since he's 3-15 his past 18 picks and 10-20 for the season.
I liked Illinois but now that Dr.Bob likes them also I am scared. Why the line moves with his picks is a joke people who follow him will be broke he is worthless.
Im pretty sure he has been fairly successful over the last few years i wouldnt let his opinion keep you off of this game.
Anyone have Dr. Bob's 8 strong opinions?
Also, I know they are sites that post every scamdicapper's picks and I used to visit one of these sites. However, I haven't seen one of these sites for years so if someone could point me in the right direction, it would be appreciated. I'm not sure if you can post the site in this forum, but if it's forbidden, then please post in general discussion.
Also, I know they are sites that post every scamdicapper's picks and I used to visit one of these sites. However, I haven't seen one of these sites for years so if someone could point me in the right direction, it would be appreciated. I'm not sure if you can post the site in this forum, but if it's forbidden, then please post in general discussion.
Not sure if it's supposed to be posted here but all of his picks are in the service forum, under the 'Friday Service Picks' (or something like that) thread. FWIW, even his "Strong Opinions" move the lines. Oregon is one of his opinions and the line jumped 1.5 shortly after it was released.
No, but I can guess at them....
No Carolina St. vs. EAST CAROLINA (-5.0)
Buffalo vs. SYRACUSE (-3.5)
Penn St. (-7.5) vs. INDIANA
Kansas (-4.0) vs. COLORADO
Kansas St. vs. OKLAHOMA ST. (-3.0)
Stanford vs. ARIZONA (-11.5)
:shrug:
I was pretty close....
I was pretty close....
Strong Opinions....
INDIANA 24 Penn St. (-7.5) 26
SOUTH CAROLINA (-13.5) 32 Vanderbilt 13
Buffalo 27 SYRACUSE (-3.5) 26
EAST CAROLINA (-5.0) 32 No Carolina St. 21
COLORADO 30 Kansas (-4.0) 29
Kansas St. 34 OKLAHOMA ST. (-3.0) 32
ARIZONA (-11.5) 38 Stanford 20
Oregon (-11.5) 41 WASHINGTON 24
I was pretty close....
Strong Opinions....
INDIANA 24 Penn St. (-7.5) 26
SOUTH CAROLINA (-13.5) 32 Vanderbilt 13
Buffalo 27 SYRACUSE (-3.5) 26
EAST CAROLINA (-5.0) 32 No Carolina St. 21
COLORADO 30 Kansas (-4.0) 29
Kansas St. 34 OKLAHOMA ST. (-3.0) 32
ARIZONA (-11.5) 38 Stanford 20
Oregon (-11.5) 41 WASHINGTON 24
I'm going against a number of his strong opinions. I think he's insight gives value to the other side with the line moves today. Kansas -3 & Okie State -2.5 look nice IMO. I also like the inflated lines with Stanford now +14 & Washington +13.
