Michigan

[DeadPrez]

The Irish Hills. Perhaps the mother of all fuel mileage race tracks. And a lot of guys run well here. Jimmie Johnson has never won here, maybe because he's not known as one of the best at conserving fuel. Biffle has won the last 2 races here. Edwards has the best average finish out of all active drivers at 8.2. Bowyer has finished in the top 10 in his last 5 races in Michigan, albeit none lower than 7th. Recent winners include Harvick, Biffle (4 wins), Junior (2 wins), Hamlin (2 wins), Kyle, Martin (5 wins), Kenseth (2 wins), Cousin Carl (2 wins), Kasey Kahne and Kurt. Lots of possibilities.

Overall Ford owns this track. But Ford hasn't been running so hot this year despite their success here. Toyota had their horsepower cut down last time they were here and they will be up to full power this weekend which I think is important information.

Hendrick had arguably the fastest cars last time out in June but their highest finisher was Johnson at 28th. Gordon crashed very early, Earnhardt blew an engine after leading 34 laps and Kahne blew a tire and had a hard hit into the wall while cruising out in front of the field with a 2.5 second lead and growing. Johnson cut down a tire and crashed with a few laps to go while running 2nd and chasing down Biffle for the lead.

Early odds indicate that they'll be a lot of contenders. Anywhere from 6 or 7 guys listed as 10-1 or lower. Kinda like a plate race when it comes to the favorites (not with the long shots obviously).

I think given the nature of this track and the multitude of guys that can run well here that I'm going to wait until practice. But the 2 guys that my gut leans to off the bat are Kahne and Kenseth.

 

[DeadPrez]

Interesting stat: 66 of the 88 races here have been won from a starting position inside the top 10 (75%). However, 8 of the last 13, including the last 4 in a row, have been won from a starting position outside the top 10.

 

[DeadPrez]

On a side note, I hope Montoya lands a decent ride in Cup next year but his loss could be NASCAR's gain with the possibility now of seeing Kyle Larson in cup next year. I'd love to see Larson land that ride. I don't see how Ganassi doesn't promote Larson up to the 42. Can't run the risk of losing that kid. A lot of bright young talent in the lower ranks these days but this kid is the beast of them all.

 

[Chicago Joe]

The Irish Hills. Perhaps the mother of all fuel mileage race tracks. And a lot of guys run well here. Jimmie Johnson has never won here, maybe because he's not known as one of the best at conserving fuel. Biffle has won the last 2 races here. Edwards has the best average finish out of all active drivers at 8.2. Bowyer has finished in the top 10 in his last 5 races in Michigan, albeit none lower than 7th. Recent winners include Harvick, Biffle (4 wins), Junior (2 wins), Hamlin (2 wins), Kyle, Martin (5 wins), Kenseth (2 wins), Cousin Carl (2 wins), Kasey Kahne and Kurt. Lots of possibilities.

Overall Ford owns this track. But Ford hasn't been running so hot this year despite their success here. Toyota had their horsepower cut down last time they were here and they will be up to full power this weekend which I think is important information.

Hendrick had arguably the fastest cars last time out in June but their highest finisher was Johnson at 28th. Gordon crashed very early, Earnhardt blew an engine after leading 34 laps and Kahne blew a tire and had a hard hit into the wall while cruising out in front of the field with a 2.5 second lead and growing. Johnson cut down a tire and crashed with a few laps to go while running 2nd and chasing down Biffle for the lead.

Early odds indicate that they'll be a lot of contenders. Anywhere from 6 or 7 guys listed as 10-1 or lower. Kinda like a plate race when it comes to the favorites (not with the long shots obviously).

I think given the nature of this track and the multitude of guys that can run well here that I'm going to wait until practice. But the 2 guys that my gut leans to off the bat are Kahne and Kenseth.

Excellent post, TDR claims this new engine package will be used for the chase.

 

[ShinerGrinder]

Oh boy. Larson in the 42 next year would bring a whole lot of excitement next year. Would love to see it.

Although it was expected, I am happy to see Vickers getting the 55 full time.

 

[DeadPrez]

Fully agree about vickers. His patience really paid off. Taking that very limited schedule but in a quality ride really worked out for him and he deserves it.

Jumped on Kahne a little bit because I see his odds dropping in some places and took Kenseth too cause his odds are nice given his success this year and at this track in particular. Wanted to lock in something at these numbers.

Kahne +800
Kenseth +1000

 

[DeadPrez]

Ryan Newman is running the chassis that he's had considerable success with last year in a bunch of different races and this year with the pole and win at Indy and 4th place at Pocono. This chassis raced last year at Michigan and started 35th and finished 8th. Newman's been pretty hot lately and with smoke now out of the fold it not only enhances his chase prospects but Steve Addington has said that SHR is putting all their resources into the 39 from here on out. Newman has 2 wins at Michigan although they were a long time ago. If he qualifies upfront this number will go down to probably mid-teens. With his momentum right now I'll take an early shot.

Newman +3300

Also junior is running the same chassis that he ran at Michigan when he won last year and was running I think 1st when he lost a cylinder and ultimately lost his engine soon after in June of this year

 

[ShinerGrinder]

Great info. Might have to tail this....

 

[DeadPrez]

Interesting stat: 66 of the 88 races here have been won from a starting position inside the top 10 (75%). However, 8 of the last 13, including the last 4 in a row, have been won from a starting position outside the top 10.

With the guys I've already played I'm going to need this stat to continue! Rough starting spot for Kahne, found that one surprising

 

[Old School]

http://www.fftoolbox.com/nascar/article.cfm?article_id=175

NASCAR Picks for Michigan

by Brian Polking, Monday, August 12, 2013 9:51:07 PM CDT FFToolbox.com


Track Info:
Length: 2.000 miles
Shape: D-shaped Oval
Type: Superspeedway
Location: Brooklyn, Michigan
View Average Finishes



The Sprint Cup Series heads back to Michigan International Speedway this weekend, and the fast 2.0-mile oval seems to have gotten even faster with the introduction of the "Gen-6" car. In addition to dialing in the new car, drivers will have to deal with a new tire compound this weekend. That being said, the "Gen-6" car didn't really seem to shift the balance of power at MIS, and for fantasy purposes, hopefully the same thing can be said about the new tire after this weekend's race. After all, Michigan's wide racing groove has traditionally allowed the drivers with the fastest cars to move through the field and get to the front. Yes, Michigan has also been notorious for fuel mileage races, but if the cautions fall right, the drivers with the best cars tend to deliver great finishes. Many of NASCAR's big names have performed very well at the track. In other words, Sunday's trip to Michigan provides fantasy owners with a chance to pile up some points, and with a couple of short track events looming in the coming weeks, owners need to take advantage of the opportunity.


1. Greg Biffle, #16 3M/Bondo, Roush Fenway Racing [Yahoo Class B]

Not only is Biffle the defending winner of this weekend's race, but he is going for a season sweep and a three-peat after also winning at MIS in June. For his career, Biffle has four wins at the 2.0-mile oval and 10 top-five finishes in 21 starts. Meanwhile, no driver has led more laps or scored more points in the last five races at Michigan than Biffle.

2. Jimmie Johnson, #48 Lowe's/Kobalt Tools, Hendrick Motorsports [Yahoo Class A]

Although he has never won a race at Michigan, Johnson has had his share of strong cars. He has led the most laps at the track on more than one occasion, only to run out of gas while leading on the last lap. Earlier this year, Johnson was actually closing in on eventual leader Greg Biffle when he cut a tire and hit the wall with a couple of laps to go. It is only a matter of time before he gets a win at MIS.

3. Matt Kenseth, #20 Husky/Dollar General, Joe Gibbs Racing [Yahoo Class A]

Fantasy owners will have a tough time finding a more reliable option than Kenseth this weekend. His 9.4 average finish at Michigan is the second best among active drivers, and in 28 starts at the track, he has 18 top-10s. Kenseth is also a two-time winner at the track, and has finished in the top 10 in five of his last six starts at MIS, including a sixth-place run earlier this year.

4. Kyle Busch, #18 Mars Brands/Interstate Batteries, Joe Gibbs Racing [Yahoo Class B]

Busch has been dialed in at Michigan recently. In the last five races at the track, his three top-five finishes are tied for the most in the series. During the stretch, Busch has also led the third-most laps of any driver and has scored the fourth-most points. He won the August race in 2011; and earlier this year, he finished fourth at the track.

5. Kasey Kahne, #5 Farmers Insurance/Quaker State, Hendrick Motorsports [Yahoo Class A]

He has had a few bumps in the road at Michigan, but Kahne's ability to deliver elite finishes at the track is undeniable. In addition to his victory in 2006, he has finished second on three other occasions. Kahne also finished third at MIS last August, and he was leading at the track in June when he cut a tire and slammed the wall.

6. Dale Earnhardt, Jr., #88 National Guard/Diet Mountain Dew, Hendrick Motorsports [Yahoo Class B]

His two most-recent Cup wins have both come at Michigan, including his victory at the track last June. In the August event that same year, he finished fourth; earlier this year, Junior was out front when he lost a motor. Overall, he has been a stud at the 2.0-mile ovals the last few years, and he has legitimate top-five potential this weekend.

7. Brad Keselowski, #2 Miller Lite, Penske Racing [Yahoo Class A]

Keselowski has flexed some serious muscle in the last four races at Michigan. He has finished in the top-15 in all four starts during the stretch, compiling a 7.5 average finish and finishing third or better twice. His blend of reliability and upside makes him a solid fantasy option in all formats.

8. Clint Bowyer, #15 5-Hour Energy, Michael Waltrip Racing [Yahoo Class A]

While he has never finished in the top five at Michigan, Bowyer should still make a rock solid addition to fantasy rosters this weekend. After all, he has reeled off five straight top-10 finishes at the track, including three straight seventh-place finishes. During the stretch, Bowyer's 7.4 average finish is the best in the series.

9. Carl Edwards, #99 Fastenal/Aflac/UPS/Subway, Roush Fenway Racing [Yahoo Class B]

Fantasy owners that like to go with conservative, safe options should definitely consider Edwards this weekend. After all, his 8.2 average finish at Michigan is the best in the series, and in 18 starts, he has finished outside the top 12 only twice. Edwards is also a two-time winner at the track, and he finished sixth last August and eighth earlier this year.

10. Kevin Harvick, #29 Budweiser/Rheem, Richard Childress Racing [Yahoo Class A]

While he only has four top-five finishes in 25 starts at Michigan, Harvick has a knack for delivering solid finishes at the track. He has a 14.3 average finish at MIS for his career, and he has finished outside the top 20 only once since 2006. Throw in the fact that he finished second in the June race, and Harvick has plenty to offer fantasy owners this weekend.

11. Martin Truex, Jr., #56 NAPA Auto Parts, Michael Waltrip Racing [Yahoo Class B]

Truex has been getting better and better at Michigan lately. He has improved his result at the track in five straight starts and has finished in the top 12 in three straight starts. Last August, he finished 10th at MIS, and earlier this year, he finished third. Owners could definitely hit it big with Truex this weekend.

12. Kurt Busch, #78 Furniture Row, Furniture Row Racing [Yahoo Class B]

Although he has finished 30th or worse in his last four starts at Michigan, Busch still offers fantasy owners plenty of upside. Keep in mind that when the series visited the track in June, he led 21 laps early and was running in the top five when he spun and hit the wall. Mistake aside, Busch had one of the fastest cars on the track, and owners willing to take the risk could be rewarded with a top-five finish

 

[Old School]

13. Jeff Gordon, #24 Drive to End Hunger/Axalta, Hendrick Motorsports [Yahoo Class A]

His luck at Michigan has been awful in his last two starts, but Gordon's overall numbers at the track remain solid. In his last nine starts at MIS, he has finished sixth or better five times; for his career, he owns a 12.4 average finish. Gordon isn't the best option in Yahoo! leagues, but he should end up in or around the top 10 this weekend.
14. Joey Logano, #22 Shell-Pennzoil, Penske Racing [Yahoo Class B]

His career record at Michigan isn't overwhelming, but Logano has been stout at the 2.0-mile tracks in his first year with Penske Racing. He nearly won at Auto Club Speedway in Fontana earlier this year, and he finished ninth when the series visited MIS in June. Logano could certainly provide a top-10 finish this weekend, and he should be a solid sleeper play.

15. Ryan Newman, #39 Quicken Loans/Haas Automation, Stewart-Haas Racing [Yahoo Class B]

While he will likely never recapture the form that saw him win back-to-back races at Michigan early in his career, Newman has been racking up decent finishes at the 2.0-mile oval recently. In his last five starts at the track, he has four top-15 finishes and has compiled a 10.2 average finish. Look for Newman to land somewhere in the top 15 Sunday, making him a viable option in most formats.

16. Denny Hamlin, #11 FedEx, Joe Gibbs Racing [Yahoo Class A]

Based on his luck lately, it is safe to assume that Hamlin spent a couple of days smashing mirrors while walking under ladders. Despite the bad luck, he still has a ton of upside this weekend. In his last nine starts at Michigan, he has five top-10s and has finished third or better four times. Hamlin also has two wins during the stretch, so owners willing to gamble that his luck will turn around could be rewarded nicely.

17. Austin Dillon, #14 Bass Pro Shops, Stewart-Haas Racing

Dillon will replace the injured Tony Stewart this weekend at Michigan, and he instantly becomes a viable sleeper option in fantasy leagues. After all, Stewart has finished in the top 10 in six of his last seven starts at MIS, so the No. 14 team should have a solid setup to work with. More importantly, Dillon finished 11th at Michigan in June while driving for the No. 33 team, and he has even stronger equipment to work with this time around.

18. Paul Menard, #27 Menards, Richard Childress Racing [Yahoo Class B]

If the last two races at Michigan are any indication, Menard could make a solid sleeper pick this weekend. He finished ninth at the track last August, and earlier this year, he finished 14th. Richard Childress Racing was strong as a whole at MIS in June, so another solid finish isn't out of the question for Menard this weekend.

19. Ricky Stenhouse Jr., #17 Best Buy/Valvoline/Zest, Roush Fenway Racing [Yahoo Class C]

After a solid debut at Michigan earlier this year, the rookie is definitely a viable sleeper option this weekend for fantasy owners. Stenhouse finished 16th at the track in June, and he could be even better with a little experience under his belt. Not to mention the fact that he should have excellent setup information to work with, considering how well Roush Fenway Racing has been at MIS over the years.

20. Jeff Burton, #31 Caterpillar/Cheerios, Richard Childress Racing [Yahoo Class B]

Burton had finished outside the top 15 in five straight starts at Michigan prior to a 10th-place finish earlier this year. While it will take more than one decent finish to salvage his fantasy value, the fact that all of RCR ran well at MIS in June bodes well for Burton's chances this weekend. A top-15 could be on tap for him this weekend.

21. Mark Martin, #55 Aaron's Dream Machine, Michael Waltrip Racing [Yahoo Class B]

The veteran won at Michigan in 2009, but he has had his issues at the track lately. Martin has finished outside the top 25 in three straight starts at MIS and five times in his last eight starts at the track. He is probably better than his recent starts indicate, but Martin has to be viewed as a bit of a risky pick at this point.

22. Aric Almirola, #43 Smithfield Foods, Richard Petty Motorsports [Yahoo Class B]

Although he hasn't had a breakout performance at Michigan just yet, Almirola does deserve to be on the radar of fantasy owners this weekend. After all, he has finished in the top 20 in all three starts at MIS, and he finished 17th at the track earlier this year. Even if he just logs another top-20 this weekend, Almirola will have value in deeper formats.

23. Jamie McMurray, #1 McDonald's/Cessna, Earnhardt Ganassi Racing [Yahoo Class B]

There hasn't been a lot for McMurray to celebrate at Michigan lately. He has gone nine straight starts at the track without finishing in the top 10. While he does have three top-15 finishes during the stretch, his overall lack of upside make him a below average fantasy option in most formats.

24. Trevor Bayne, #21 Motorcraft/Quick Lane, Wood Brothers Racing [Yahoo Class C]

Fantasy owners looking for a different C-List option in Yahoo! leagues this weekend may want to consider Bayne. He has finished in the top 25 in four of his five starts at MIS, and the lone exception was the result of an engine failure. Bayne is also coming off a career-best 15th-place run at the track in June, so he has some upside.

 

[Old School]

25. Juan Montoya, #42 Target, Earnhardt Ganassi Racing [Yahoo Class B]

While he does have a couple of top-10s at Michigan, Montoya's overall record at the track has been sketchy. He has never finished in the top five at MIS, and he has finished 20th or worse in his last two starts. Without a lot of upside to look forward to, it is tough to justify the risk.
26. Marcos Ambrose, #9 Stanley/Dewalt Power Tools, Richard Petty Motorsports [Yahoo Class B]

It appeared as though Ambrose had made a breakthrough at Michigan after he logged a pair of top-10s at the track in 2012. However, a 23rd-place finish at the track in June seems to suggest that his 22.6 average finish at the track is closer to what owners can expect out of him this weekend.

27. David Ragan, #34 CSX Transportation/Peanut Patch, Front Row Motorsports [Yahoo Class C]

Although his days as a top-10 driver at Michigan disappeared when he left Roush Fenway Racing, the 2.0-mile oval has remained one of his better tracks. Ragan has finished in the top 25 in all three of his starts at MIS with Front Row Motorsports, making him a potential sleeper option in deeper leagues.

28. Danica Patrick, #10 GoDaddy.com, Stewart-Haas Racing [Yahoo Class C]

The sample size isn't big, but Patrick had one of her best career finishes in her Michigan debut earlier this year. Her 13th-place finish in the June event remains her third-best finish to date, and the ample passing room at the track is likely a major benefit for Patrick. Another top-15 finish might be asking a lot, but a top-20 wouldn't be a huge shock.

29. Casey Mears, #13 GEICO, Germain Racing [Yahoo Class C]

For a driver on a single-car team, Mears has had his moments in 2013. One of his decent runs came at Michigan earlier this year when he finished 21st. If Mears can finish in or around the top 20 again this weekend, he will be a useful fantasy option in deeper leagues.

30. Brendan Gaughan, #51 Phoenix Construction, Phoenix Racing

After A.J. Allmendinger was listed on the unofficial entry list, it appears Gaughan will drive the No. 51 this weekend. Considering his last Cup start in a competitive car came in 2004, it is tough to expect a lot from him. Gaughan has made just five Cup starts total since the 2004 season, and while he has had success in the lower series since then, there will likely be a sizable learning curve as he gets back up to speed.

 

[DeadPrez]

Juan Montoya driving with a chip (no pun intended) on his shoulder this weekend. The guy really has been fast this year. Even after wrecking very early in Pocono a few weeks ago he drove back up to finish 28th. He's been blazing this weekend so far. Practice ranks of 2nd, 2nd and 4th. And all 3 of those were behind Jimmie Johnson who's not running the same car that he made those laps in due to the crash in happy hour. So it can be said that JPM really clocked in at 1st, 1st and 3rd in practice and qualified 6th. I jumped all over him at +5000 and again at +3500. What a story it would be for him to come out and get his first win on an oval this weekend. Kind of like Newman did in Indy after getting ousted from that ride a short time earlier. I'm glad to take a shot at him winning at those odds. He was also 2nd quick, just a tick behind Junior in 10 lap average in happy hour. I'm in on both these guys, both starting in the top 6 and Jimmie going to the back in a back up car that he was only able to run the 18th fastest time in once it hit the track late in final practice.

Also taking a small shot on Jeff Burton at +5000. Qualified 5th and was fast in practices. He's only had 1 other top 10 start this year when he started 9th and finished 3rd and was in contention for the win in Loudon.

 

[Grama]

Love Michigan.

To Win:
Kyle 8-1
Biffle 8.5-1
Kahne 10-1
Kenseth 10-1

Head to Head:
Kyle over Jimmie +120
Keselowski over Truex -125
Bowyer over Kurt -105
Newman over Logano +140

Good Luck :toast: :toast:

 

[DeadPrez]

Harvick over Truex Jr. (-130)
Burton over McMurray (-115)

 

[william13]

count me in , but been cold as a dead fish .....



to hit top 3 ..

kasey +180 2x

under 8.5 finish

jimmy -130 2x .... good luck gents

 

[Looselugs]

Think this race winner is wide open.
Try a couple matchups

Newman over Logano +150
David Gililand over David Ragan+100

gl
lugs

 

[william13]

count me in , but been cold as a dead fish .....



to hit top 3 ..

kasey +180 2x

under 8.5 finish

jimmy -130 2x .... good luck gents

ADDED...


g biffle under 8.5 finish -130 2x

to win ...

g biffle +950

 

[DeadPrez]

Kahne +800
Kenseth +1000
Junior +1000

Longshots:

Newman +3300
Montoya +5000 and +3500
Burton +5000

Matchups:

Harvick over Truex Jr. (-130)
Burton over McMurray (-115)
Kyle over Jimmie (+160)

Happy Race Day!!! Michigan!!!