Middle possibility

[Valuist]

Atlanta -170 & NY Mets +1.5 runs -149

There are only a few teams I'll try this with. Both teams have been a little disappointing offensively. Two solid starters and two very capable bullpens. I see a 4-3 Braves win.

 

[Spock]

Valuist,

love your posts. I was thinking along the same lines. And have made both plays. Hope we get it.

Cheers and thanx
Spock

 

[Spock]

great call

Cheers !!!
Spock

 

[Bryan]

Great Call!

 

[Valuist]

Gotta love it. Glad you nailed it also.

 

[Bandit HVG]

EXCELENT!!!

:toast:

 

[heleanth]

I hope Nolan Dalla gets to see this. He has been playing hedges which are the opposite of yours, where you hope the favorite does not win by one run.

To pull that off takes a great mind and a little bit of good fortune. Great call. I would guess that with that matchup, a good percentage of the games would be decided by one run. Nice work and congratulations, Valuist!!!

 

[TJBELL]

WOW!! GREAT CALL VALUIST!!!!

 

[Valuist]

Heleanth-

Thanks. No doubt there's good fortune involved to middle. I only look for games with 2 divisional rivals, 2 solid starting pitchers, 2 bullpens who are doing well, and it doesn't hurt to have struggling offenses. Awhile back I tracked scores to see what the most common game scores were and 4-3 was the most common followed by 3-2 and 5-4. Last year the Cubs were great to use for middles. They had a great record in 1-run games, their bullpen was great (unlike this year) and the wind often blew in which limited the # of runs. I believe Nolan's theory is using the real high total games, which are less likely to be decided by one run. The lower the total, the greater the chance for a one-run game.

 

[loophole]

ain't you the sharp guy, valuist. most excellent and insightful play. congrats.

 

[ndnfan]

interesting ......NICE HIT :clap:

 

[gecko]

CONGRATS! :thumb:

you knew these teams' history of one-run games when playing each other and found the right situation. great call.