sat 4:35 est
49ERs rushing attack has been second in the NFL all season, behind only the Ravens record-setting pace. A little more rush predominant earlier in the season, the attack has balanced out a little more due to injuries, opponents, and just the overall evolution of the season. Raheem Mostert has become the featured back. He's topped 10 rushing attempts for 5 straight games with only that Falcons shocker seeing him kept to a long run of only 8 yards. He was minimum 16 for a long in the other 4, including busting for 40 against the Ravens and then a 19 against the tough Saints rush D. He has a rushing TD in 6 straight games, doing the double last time out @Seahawks. His yardage has only been in the 50's for 3 straight (54,53,57) but he is in his prime at 27 and has had major mojo lately. A score by Mostert is one of the most attractive that I see.
49ERs Raheem Mostert ov0.5 rushing TD +165 large / much larger
Mostert ov51.5 rushing yards -123 medium-small / not too shabby
I'm also thinking that Garoppolo (ov1.5 TD passes listed at -134) has a good shot at connecting on a TD pass with a receiver or two. WR Deebo Samuel hasn't caught a TD pass for 4 straight, but he did rush for a score in each of the past 2. He was a serious deep threat midway through the season and did crack 100 last game vs Seahawks with a long of 30. He can be a threat deep and--based on the run play success lately--he's a decent bet for the short passing game in the red zone. Hoppy.
Veteran Emmanuel Sanders might be even more of a threat in the deep game. Numbers alone make him a longshot with just 3 TD recepts since coming over in the trade (10 games worth) but numbers aren't everything. You can always find different numbers, anyways, and I've seen some comparing Garoppolo's passer rating from before and after acquiring Sanders and those numbers argue he has excelled with Sanders in the fold. This was secondary to me, after Deebo, but money on a TD from one or the other sounds beauty.
49ERs Deebo Samuel ov0.5 TD recepts +212 medium / doublish
49ERs Emmanuel Sanders ov0.5 TD recepts +225 medium / doublish
other temptations I had to pass on as you can't have everything (Santa told me once):
Raheem Mostert ov10.5 receiving yards +111
George Kittle(TE) ov0.5 TD recept +119
George Kittle ov78.5 receive yards -119
Deebo Samuel ov50.5 receiving yds -121
Emmanuel Sanders ov47.5 receiving yards -120
Robbie Gould ov7.5 kicking points -106
=========================
sat 8:15 est
The Mark Ingram injury apparently has me considering the ramifications more seriously than I get from the larger world. His experience and ability in short-yardage--goaline or wherever--would be missed if he doesn't go. It sounds like he will be in and, besides, the Ravens will have few excuses for dropping this contest whether or not he goes. Lamar Jackson might get the yardage (seeing ov78.5 -119) but I figure that they have plenty of time to scheme a whole whack of short and long yardage plays for this match. Arguably, the two AFC juggernauts are getting to face the weakest defenses left in the playoffs and I am trying to find a way to take advantage. Leading TD receiver Mark Andrews (TE) is nursing an injury but that isn't the problem, for me, it's the low +110 price for him to score. I've got some Tyreek Hill (coming soon to a post within) at +120 and I barely like that one. I'm not sure who Lamar might connect (currently ov1.5 TD passes at -184!) with but Marquise Brown was targetted the second most--behind Edwards--I'm going to hop on this hunch. The Nick Boyle choice--listed as secondaries--might transcend temptation. To tell you the truth, the Boyle yardage prop looks like a gift.
Ravens Lamar Jackson ov0.5 rushing TD +132 small-medium / medium
Ravens Marquise Brown ov0.5 TD recepts +212 small-medium / small-medium & medium-small
secondary maybes:
Lamar Jackson rush yds ov78.5 -119
Nick Boyle(TE) ov0.5 TD recepts +365
NB ov12.5 receiving yards -114
===================================
sun 3:05 est
Somewhere between total jubilation and major disappointment is coming for me in this one. Time will tell whether the recent surge by the Chiefs defense will be short-lived, but I believe that most of the evidence is in regarding the Texans defense; Watt's return was a boost, no doubt, but he still may be relegated to longer-yardage passing situations and I have minimal concerns about the Chiefs line and Patrick Mahomes being able to convert many of the few such situations where this appears. Ugly sentence but the weather is supposed to be more attractive and I believe that the Chiefs will be successful early and often.
Damien Williams rushing yards prop (ov54.5 -119) isn't a real turn on as he doesn't break many long ones; he's been very good in short-yardage, though. He's been utilized a lot in the passing game, as well (in fact, receiving yards prop set at ov23.5 -120), and him grabbing a major one way or another seems to me very likely.
Chiefs Damien Williams ov0.5 rushing TD +138 medium / medium-plus
Damien Williams ov0.5 TD recepts +342 medium / several mediums
I feel like I would be a space cadet if I pass up on Kelce at this price.
Chiefs Travis Kelce ov0.5 TD recepts +144 medium / almost large
While I was on an irrationally exuberant rampage:
Chiefs Tyreek Hill ov0.5 TD recepts +120 small / smallish
I'm taking a flyer on the pricey yardage stats, but these options appeared late (for me) but I might still be grabbing a small go on one of the 3 3x listed here (the McCoy yardage seems too 50-50):
LeSean McCoy(RB) ov0.5 rushing TD +307
LM ov21.5 rushing yards -119
Mecole Hardman(WR;mostly returns kickoffs/punts) ov0.5 TD recepts +360
Demarcus Robinson(WR) ov0.5 receiving TD +360
===============================================
sun 6:40pm est
I have no idea or preference in this one. My early under lean has dissolved and nothing would surprise me here. Seahawks ground game may continue to suffer, hence the tempation on the Russell Wilson running yards prop. My analysis, 'recency bias' and all, forced me to hop on some Metcalf.
seahawks D.K. Metcalf ov0.5 TD recepts +157 medium / you get the picture
Metcalf ov61.5 receiving yards -122 medium / not quite medium
I'm considering (*seriously) these but the prices don't entices:
Russell Wilson ov24.5 rush yards -125.-124
Aaron Rodgers ov1.5 TD passes -127
*GB's Aaron Jones ov0.5 rushing TD +104
AJ ov70.5 rushing yards -118
*GB's Devante Adams(WR) ov83.5 receiving yards -130
DA ov0.5 TD recepts +122
================================================
totally totalled robust anti-fragile redundancy:
================================================
49ERs Raheem Mostert ov0.5 rushing TD +165 large / much larger
Mostert ov51.5 rushing yards -123 medium-small / not too shabby
49ERs Deebo Samuel ov0.5 TD recepts +212 medium / doublish
49ERs Emmanuel Sanders ov0.5 TD recepts +225 medium / doublish
Ravens Lamar Jackson ov0.5 rushing TD +132 small-medium / medium
Ravens Marquise Brown ov0.5 TD recepts +212 small-medium / small-medium & medium-small
Chiefs Damien Williams ov0.5 rushing TD +138 medium / medium-plus
Damien Williams ov0.5 TD recepts +342 medium / several mediums
Chiefs Travis Kelce ov0.5 TD recepts +144 medium / almost large
Chiefs Tyreek Hill ov0.5 TD recepts +120 small / smallish
seahawks D.K. Metcalf ov0.5 TD recepts +157 medium / you get the picture
Metcalf ov61.5 receiving yards -122 medium / not quite medium
=====================================
I was going to try to provide pro-football reference links to he players I'm on, but hopefully any interested parties have both computers and fingers. Sorry. Besides, I've been smokin' too much herb while doing my R.I.P. Rush fest.
This post is dedicated to the memory of Neil Peart. Thanks, dude.
(I can do that, can't I?....hahahahahaha)
[This guys nuts]
Hendrix forbid this from needing major editing.
49ERs rushing attack has been second in the NFL all season, behind only the Ravens record-setting pace. A little more rush predominant earlier in the season, the attack has balanced out a little more due to injuries, opponents, and just the overall evolution of the season. Raheem Mostert has become the featured back. He's topped 10 rushing attempts for 5 straight games with only that Falcons shocker seeing him kept to a long run of only 8 yards. He was minimum 16 for a long in the other 4, including busting for 40 against the Ravens and then a 19 against the tough Saints rush D. He has a rushing TD in 6 straight games, doing the double last time out @Seahawks. His yardage has only been in the 50's for 3 straight (54,53,57) but he is in his prime at 27 and has had major mojo lately. A score by Mostert is one of the most attractive that I see.
49ERs Raheem Mostert ov0.5 rushing TD +165 large / much larger
Mostert ov51.5 rushing yards -123 medium-small / not too shabby
I'm also thinking that Garoppolo (ov1.5 TD passes listed at -134) has a good shot at connecting on a TD pass with a receiver or two. WR Deebo Samuel hasn't caught a TD pass for 4 straight, but he did rush for a score in each of the past 2. He was a serious deep threat midway through the season and did crack 100 last game vs Seahawks with a long of 30. He can be a threat deep and--based on the run play success lately--he's a decent bet for the short passing game in the red zone. Hoppy.
Veteran Emmanuel Sanders might be even more of a threat in the deep game. Numbers alone make him a longshot with just 3 TD recepts since coming over in the trade (10 games worth) but numbers aren't everything. You can always find different numbers, anyways, and I've seen some comparing Garoppolo's passer rating from before and after acquiring Sanders and those numbers argue he has excelled with Sanders in the fold. This was secondary to me, after Deebo, but money on a TD from one or the other sounds beauty.
49ERs Deebo Samuel ov0.5 TD recepts +212 medium / doublish
49ERs Emmanuel Sanders ov0.5 TD recepts +225 medium / doublish
other temptations I had to pass on as you can't have everything (Santa told me once):
Raheem Mostert ov10.5 receiving yards +111
George Kittle(TE) ov0.5 TD recept +119
George Kittle ov78.5 receive yards -119
Deebo Samuel ov50.5 receiving yds -121
Emmanuel Sanders ov47.5 receiving yards -120
Robbie Gould ov7.5 kicking points -106
=========================
sat 8:15 est
The Mark Ingram injury apparently has me considering the ramifications more seriously than I get from the larger world. His experience and ability in short-yardage--goaline or wherever--would be missed if he doesn't go. It sounds like he will be in and, besides, the Ravens will have few excuses for dropping this contest whether or not he goes. Lamar Jackson might get the yardage (seeing ov78.5 -119) but I figure that they have plenty of time to scheme a whole whack of short and long yardage plays for this match. Arguably, the two AFC juggernauts are getting to face the weakest defenses left in the playoffs and I am trying to find a way to take advantage. Leading TD receiver Mark Andrews (TE) is nursing an injury but that isn't the problem, for me, it's the low +110 price for him to score. I've got some Tyreek Hill (coming soon to a post within) at +120 and I barely like that one. I'm not sure who Lamar might connect (currently ov1.5 TD passes at -184!) with but Marquise Brown was targetted the second most--behind Edwards--I'm going to hop on this hunch. The Nick Boyle choice--listed as secondaries--might transcend temptation. To tell you the truth, the Boyle yardage prop looks like a gift.
Ravens Lamar Jackson ov0.5 rushing TD +132 small-medium / medium
Ravens Marquise Brown ov0.5 TD recepts +212 small-medium / small-medium & medium-small
secondary maybes:
Lamar Jackson rush yds ov78.5 -119
Nick Boyle(TE) ov0.5 TD recepts +365
NB ov12.5 receiving yards -114
===================================
sun 3:05 est
Somewhere between total jubilation and major disappointment is coming for me in this one. Time will tell whether the recent surge by the Chiefs defense will be short-lived, but I believe that most of the evidence is in regarding the Texans defense; Watt's return was a boost, no doubt, but he still may be relegated to longer-yardage passing situations and I have minimal concerns about the Chiefs line and Patrick Mahomes being able to convert many of the few such situations where this appears. Ugly sentence but the weather is supposed to be more attractive and I believe that the Chiefs will be successful early and often.
Damien Williams rushing yards prop (ov54.5 -119) isn't a real turn on as he doesn't break many long ones; he's been very good in short-yardage, though. He's been utilized a lot in the passing game, as well (in fact, receiving yards prop set at ov23.5 -120), and him grabbing a major one way or another seems to me very likely.
Chiefs Damien Williams ov0.5 rushing TD +138 medium / medium-plus
Damien Williams ov0.5 TD recepts +342 medium / several mediums
I feel like I would be a space cadet if I pass up on Kelce at this price.
Chiefs Travis Kelce ov0.5 TD recepts +144 medium / almost large
While I was on an irrationally exuberant rampage:
Chiefs Tyreek Hill ov0.5 TD recepts +120 small / smallish
I'm taking a flyer on the pricey yardage stats, but these options appeared late (for me) but I might still be grabbing a small go on one of the 3 3x listed here (the McCoy yardage seems too 50-50):
LeSean McCoy(RB) ov0.5 rushing TD +307
LM ov21.5 rushing yards -119
Mecole Hardman(WR;mostly returns kickoffs/punts) ov0.5 TD recepts +360
Demarcus Robinson(WR) ov0.5 receiving TD +360
===============================================
sun 6:40pm est
I have no idea or preference in this one. My early under lean has dissolved and nothing would surprise me here. Seahawks ground game may continue to suffer, hence the tempation on the Russell Wilson running yards prop. My analysis, 'recency bias' and all, forced me to hop on some Metcalf.
seahawks D.K. Metcalf ov0.5 TD recepts +157 medium / you get the picture
Metcalf ov61.5 receiving yards -122 medium / not quite medium
I'm considering (*seriously) these but the prices don't entices:
Russell Wilson ov24.5 rush yards -125.-124
Aaron Rodgers ov1.5 TD passes -127
*GB's Aaron Jones ov0.5 rushing TD +104
AJ ov70.5 rushing yards -118
*GB's Devante Adams(WR) ov83.5 receiving yards -130
DA ov0.5 TD recepts +122
================================================
totally totalled robust anti-fragile redundancy:
================================================
49ERs Raheem Mostert ov0.5 rushing TD +165 large / much larger
Mostert ov51.5 rushing yards -123 medium-small / not too shabby
49ERs Deebo Samuel ov0.5 TD recepts +212 medium / doublish
49ERs Emmanuel Sanders ov0.5 TD recepts +225 medium / doublish
Ravens Lamar Jackson ov0.5 rushing TD +132 small-medium / medium
Ravens Marquise Brown ov0.5 TD recepts +212 small-medium / small-medium & medium-small
Chiefs Damien Williams ov0.5 rushing TD +138 medium / medium-plus
Damien Williams ov0.5 TD recepts +342 medium / several mediums
Chiefs Travis Kelce ov0.5 TD recepts +144 medium / almost large
Chiefs Tyreek Hill ov0.5 TD recepts +120 small / smallish
seahawks D.K. Metcalf ov0.5 TD recepts +157 medium / you get the picture
Metcalf ov61.5 receiving yards -122 medium / not quite medium
=====================================
I was going to try to provide pro-football reference links to he players I'm on, but hopefully any interested parties have both computers and fingers. Sorry. Besides, I've been smokin' too much herb while doing my R.I.P. Rush fest.
This post is dedicated to the memory of Neil Peart. Thanks, dude.
(I can do that, can't I?....hahahahahaha)
[This guys nuts]
Hendrix forbid this from needing major editing.
Last edited:
