Mine for the week

[TheShrimp]

Dall +5 (1.1 -> 1)
Minn +9.5 (1.1 -> 1) [wait till sunday. if it's 10 at SIA, that's the play]
Sea +3 (.53 -> .5)
Sea +140 (.5 -> .7)
NYJ +1.5 (1.1 -> 1)
CHI +9 (1.1 -> 1)
Hou/Pitt u39 (.55 -> .5)

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I really like the spot Seattle is in here. If I hadn't been burned already by doubling up a couple times, I'd have 1 on the cover and 1 on the ML.

Thanks to whoever pointed out the KC -3 earlier this week (Senor Capper was it?). I jumped on that at EVEN and now it's up to 5.5 which I'm going to play for a middle, but hold out till Sunday to see if a 6 shows up.

Beyond that, I'd recommend playing STL at 5.5 small, anyway. A 2 pt fave at PHI and now a 5.5 pt dog at KC?? I've never seen a team's lines fluctuate like this team's lines do. That's what the injuries will do, though.

TheShrimp

Year: 41-43-1 -3.45

 

[TheShrimp]

Adding WASH -2.5 (1.2 -> 1).

If you've followed my thread at all, you know I hate laying even small lumber. I like this one, though. Giants simply can't stop people. They've become total sieves. Washington is done with a DALL team who plays tough D at home. They have lots of rest, and Giants are coming off a real tough loss. I think we see Gints go into the tank big time, if they're not already there. Houston put up 16 on them which is like the Redskins scoring 60.

Washington is still an improving team and even if they're out of the playoffs, I think they're the type of team that might be starting to "feel it" -- get that winning vibe going to head into next year strong. Giants are just the opposite.

Skinnies in a cake walk, hopefully.

Just to clarify: the MINN play still goes at 9.5, but I'm waiting till Sunday to see if any late action on GB pushes it up.

 

[Billy]

I love Seatle in this spot.....and I'm also leaning heavy on
Minny, Chicago aint Minny, and made the GB bettors sweat
their balls off, could have covered except for 2 pt try........
Minny has the MO, GB hurt and somewhat backstepping.....
9~ points is absurd......BUT......Minny road record is esp on
grass outside in the tundra is ????........need more time but
think Minny is the pick.........weather????????may not be 9~
points scored the whole game........well the weather outside
is frightful.....the fire inside delightful......and there's really
no place to go.....let it snow, let it snow, let it snow.......by the
way, it got up to 68 here in Simi today.........

 

[TheShrimp]

Thanks Billy,

Everyone on this board seems to be on SEA, but consensus at bestbettor is the other way. I wouldn't be surprised to see PHI turn up as a Goldman pick this week.

I don't think either of those 9.5 point spreads this week looks like mismatches to that degree. 9 is a lot to lay. That's what ZONA was to KC and to OAK the week before. MINN has been getting their act together.

Not as happy with that CHI line, but man, MIA was 8 to DET on opening day. 4-5 to BAL, BUFF, and NE at home. Now it's 9 to chicago. I don't see them as 5 points worse than some of those other teams.

GL

 

[TheShrimp]

Finally, 2 TDs here.
Adding HOU +14 (1.1 -> 1)

Really, you're looking at a team that's played JAX tough TWICE lately, back-doored TENN, but has also put up only 3 points twice recently. Given that this has to go over 2 TD's difference to LOSE, I like it. They still have put up some respectable defenseive efforts lately, holding JAX, TENN, and IND to about 20 points each.

Final recs:
Dall +5 (1.1 -> 1)
Minn +9.5 (1.1 -> 1) [wait till sunday. if it's 10 at SIA, that's the play]
Sea +3 (.53 -> .5)
Sea +140 (.5 -> .7)
NYJ +1.5 (1.1 -> 1)
CHI +9 (1.1 -> 1)
Hou/Pitt u39 (.55 -> .5)
WASH -2.5 (1.2 -> 1).
HOU +14 (1.1 -> 1)

 

[TheShrimp]

Week: 5-4 +1.17
Year: 46-47-1 -2.28

Almost bought that Chicago one last back last night. Had a change of heart on it, but didn't want to pull the chickenshit move.

Still, two of those losses were sea with the points and sea straight up, so it actually felt like a better week than 5-4.

MIA looked real good to me last night. I don't know how bad CHI might actually be, though. MIA's receivers didn't have people within 10 yards of them it looked.

We'll see how good they look on D when OAK comes to town next week. They finish with games at MINN and NE. The way MINN has been improving, I don't think MIA is assured of another win. 2 will be tough.