misc...Friday BOWL info

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Thursday, December 24

Hawaii Bowl

Southern Methodist Mustangs vs. Nevada Wolfpack (-13.5, 72.5)

How they got here

The Mustangs entered the season on a 17-game C-USA losing streak, but they finished 6-2 in conference, including an outright win over eventual champ East Carolina.

The win over the Pirates was SMU?s lone victory against a bowl bound foe. Their other five FBS wins came against teams that were a combined 19-41 straight up.

Nevada shook off a disappointing 0-3 start to go 8-1 down the stretch with their lone loss was an ATS win at Boise State.

The Wolfpack beat two bowl teams ? Fresno State and Idaho ? by a combined margin of 122-59. But the squad?s other two tries against bowl bound clubs both resulted in double-digit defeats.

SMU scouting report

The headlines here are all about SMU head coach June Jones returning to his old stomping grounds in Hawaii, where he won a national coach of the year award and took the Warriors all the way to a BCS Bowl following their undefeated 2007 regular season.

The real story is that SMU finally ended one of the longest bowl droughts in FBS football, dating all the way back to their ?death penalty? verdict for numerous NCAA violations back in the 1980s.

Jones? offense is led by frosh QB Kyle Padron, who drove the Mustangs to a 4-1 record after Bo Levi Mitchell got hurt. Mitchell is healthy now, but he hasn?t won his job back.

Emmanuel Sanders caught 91 balls in this pass-happy offense, but RB Shawnbrey McNeal gave them real balance with more than 1,200 yards on the ground. Linebacker Chase Kennemer led the team in tackles, tackles for loss and fumble recoveries.

The Nevada story

Nevada has been a perennial bowl team in recent years, making its fifth consecutive bowl appearance. The team lost its bowl games in each of the last three years, including a seven-point loss as a favorite against Maryland last year in the Humanitarian Bowl.

The Wolfpack?s lone bowl victory this decade came right here at the Hawaii Bowl in 2005, a 49-48 OT thriller against UCF, but they didn?t cover the pointspread as 2.5 point favorites.
The Wolfpack were a dominant rushing team this year, leading the nation with a whopping 4,337 yards on the ground. Nevada also led the country in rushing yards per attempt by a wide margin, gaining 7.6 yards per attempt. The No. 2 team in college football finished with 6.0 yards per carry - a clear indication of the big-play ability that Nevada enjoys from its running game.

The Wolfpack offensive line felt spurned, after the unit failed to receive a single All-WAC first team selection.

?Some of the offensive linemen are kind of mad about the first-team thing,? running back Vai Taua told reporters. ?I think they definitely want to get out there and hit some people."

Nevada?s defense struggled against the pass this year, ranking 114th in pass efficiency and 119th in passing yards allowed.

Key injuries

Nevada has a three-headed rushing attack with QB Colin Kaepernick and RBs Vai Taua and Luke Lippincott each gaining more than 1000 yards on the ground. But Taua flunked out of school and was ruled academically ineligible for the bowl game. Lippincott has a toe injury that will force him to miss the game as well.

Sophomore RB Lampford Mark and frosh RB Mike Ball have big shoes to fill for this one.

Pointspread movement

Nevada opened as a 12-point favorite, but wiseguy money immediately poured in on the Wolfpack, driving the line as high as -15. Over the last few days, due to some key injury information, the money has been coming the other way, pushing the current number down to Nevada -13.5.

The total opened at 73, but the injury info has affected that number as well, with the current total sitting at 72.5.

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Senor Capper

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DARTHUTT
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Registered: 03/19/02
Posts: 22819
Loc: utica,new york StatFox

The Hawaii Bowl has gone over the total 12 times in the last 14 games, and the winning team has scored almost 45 points. Nevada hits the
mark again this season, but the game total will fall just short of 73.5. Defensively, Nevada is allowing 27.2 PPG, SMU 29.1. Both FoxSheet game
estimators are calling for a total of 69 points and this key system also points to an unexpected finish:

Play Under - Any team against the total
(SMU/NEVADA) - in a bowl game, in a non-conference game between two teams from second-tier conferences. (34-8 over the last 10 seasons.)
(81 percent, +25.2 units. Rating = 4*). As of press time, 90 percent of the public says over ? so go under! Nevada 49, SMU 20.

Game Breakdown

SMU last played in a bowl game in 1984, and will look to repeat that 27-20 Aloha Bowl win when it travels to the Island to take on Nevada on
Christmas Eve. It?s been a remarkable turnaround for the Mustangs, who have completed the journey from ?Death Penalty? program to finally playing in a bowl
game. Much credit goes to June Jones, former coach of Hawaii, who guided the team to a 7-5 finish in 2009. They are a huge 14-point dog though, to a Nevada
team that was 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS down the stretch, scoring 49.6 points per game after starting 0-3. The Wolf Pack are in a bowl game for a fifth straight year
and last played in this game in ?05, winning 49-48 over UCF. They have not won a bowl contest since.

StatFox Forecaster: NEVADA 40, SMU 29
 

Senor Capper

is feeling it
Channel Member
Nov 14, 2000
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63
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Thursday, December 24th

Hawaii Bowl
Honolulu, HI
TV: ESPN
SMU vs. Nevada, 8:00 ET

SMU:
12-3 Over off home win
6-1 ATS as an underdog

Nevada:
6-0 Over off BB ATS wins
15-9 Over if the total is 63+
 
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