MLB FRI 050109 early thoughts - value hunting

[axp59]

Had a nice THU on the bases. Not showing much FRI even with 15 games on the board. If something pops up, I'll add it to the list but for now I like:

St. Louis +101​

BOL to all
_____
<TABLE style="WIDTH: 250pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=333 border=0 x:str><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 125pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 6107" width=167><COL style="WIDTH: 16pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 768" span=2 width=21><COL style="WIDTH: 38pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 1865" width=51><COL style="WIDTH: 29pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 1389" width=38><COL style="WIDTH: 26pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 1280" width=35><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 125pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=167 height=17></TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 16pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=21>W</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 16pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=21>L</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 38pt; COLOR: green; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-ignore: style" width=51 x:fmla="=SUM($B$3:B9)/SUM($B$3:C9)" x:num="0.54545454545454541">54.5%</TD><TD class=xl30 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 29pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=38>Units</TD><TD class=xl31 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 26pt; COLOR: green; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-ignore: style" width=35 x:fmla="=SUM($E$3:E9)" x:num>4.18</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17></TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:fmla="=SUM(B3:B9)" x:num>18</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:fmla="=SUM(C3:C9)" x:num>15</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17 x:num="39933">Thursday, April 30, 2009</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>3</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>0</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; COLOR: green; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-ignore: style" x:fmla="=B3/(B3+C3)" x:num="1">100.0%</TD><TD class=xl32 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; COLOR: green; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-ignore: style" x:num>3.13</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl34 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17 x:num="39932">Wednesday, April 29, 2009</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>0</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>6</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; COLOR: red; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-ignore: style" x:fmla="=B4/(B4+C4)" x:num="0">0.0%</TD><TD class=xl32 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; COLOR: red; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-ignore: style; mso-background-source: auto; mso-pattern: auto" x:num>-6.76</TD><TD class=xl29 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17 x:num="39931">Tuesday, April 28, 2009</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>1</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>2</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; COLOR: red; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-ignore: style" x:fmla="=B5/(B5+C5)" x:num="0.33333333333333331">33.3%</TD><TD class=xl32 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; COLOR: red; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-ignore: style; mso-background-source: auto; mso-pattern: auto" x:num>-1.16</TD><TD class=xl29 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17 x:num="39930">Monday, April 27, 2009</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>4</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>1</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; COLOR: green; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-ignore: style" x:fmla="=B6/(B6+C6)" x:num="0.8">80.0%</TD><TD class=xl32 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; COLOR: green; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-ignore: style" x:num>3.93</TD><TD class=xl29 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17 x:num="39929">Sunday, April 26, 2009</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>1</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>3</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; COLOR: red; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-ignore: style" x:fmla="=B7/(B7+C7)" x:num="0.25">25.0%</TD><TD class=xl32 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; COLOR: red; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-ignore: style; mso-background-source: auto; mso-pattern: auto" x:fmla="=-1-0.89-0.64+1" x:num>-1.53</TD><TD class=xl29 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17 x:num="39928">Saturday, April 25, 2009</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>6</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>1</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; COLOR: green; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-ignore: style" x:fmla="=B8/(B8+C8)" x:num="0.8571428571428571">85.7%</TD><TD class=xl33 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; COLOR: green; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-ignore: style" x:num>5.48</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17 x:num="39927">Friday, April 24, 2009</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>3</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>2</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; COLOR: green; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-ignore: style" x:fmla="=B9/(B9+C9)" x:num="0.6">60.0%</TD><TD class=xl33 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; COLOR: green; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-ignore: style" x:num>1.09</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[Eagle123]

BOL again!!

 

[Slicer]

Like the play, not posting anything today or Saturday/Sunday as I'll be out of town for the race this weekend in Richmond.

Got pit passes and luxury box tickets courtesy of Crown Royal/Miller Lite so I'll be partying.

Betting Earnhardt Jr to win the race +1800 for $50

 

[Ools]

Ax - 2 big dogs out there today in Fla and Balt -- see any value in either? Fla has a little more of an unknown quality on the mound (which may be good or bad).

KC looks like interesting value with Ponson and Slowey having similar WHIP #'s this year. the records really point you to favor Slowey, but there may be a little value here. At +170 may be worth a 1/2 unit.

 

[joe_shmoe]

Had a nice THU on the bases. N

Don't tell me you were happy with a 3-0 day. I showed you up with my 4-0 day. :mj07:

But I'm with you, I liked 4 games yesterday but don't like much even though there are twice as many games.

 

[Fathomable]

i see some value in the fish. harden wont last long and then we know what happens next. still pondering a small play on em.

another stat is that cubs dont play well in day games after a night game for whatever that is worth.

oh what the hell...............

florida + 1.5 +113 locked in

bola

 

[axp59]

Like the play, not posting anything today or Saturday/Sunday as I'll be out of town for the race this weekend in Richmond.

Got pit passes and luxury box tickets courtesy of Crown Royal/Miller Lite so I'll be partying.

Betting Earnhardt Jr to win the race +1800 for $50

Thanks Slice. Have a great weekend pal. :00hour

Pac Man in 9

 

[coolhandluke]

Like the play, not posting anything today or Saturday/Sunday as I'll be out of town for the race this weekend in Richmond.

Got pit passes and luxury box tickets courtesy of Crown Royal/Miller Lite so I'll be partying.

Betting Earnhardt Jr to win the race +1800 for $50

Damn Slicer I envy you, have a great time buddy!!!

 

[axp59]

Ax - 2 big dogs out there today in Fla and Balt -- see any value in either? Fla has a little more of an unknown quality on the mound (which may be good or bad).

KC looks like interesting value with Ponson and Slowey having similar WHIP #'s this year. the records really point you to favor Slowey, but there may be a little value here. At +170 may be worth a 1/2 unit.

Ools, FWIW, I show no value for either huge dogs. If I had to pick either, FLA has 2x more value than BAL but 2X of 0 value is still 0 value.

I do agree with you that there is value with KC @170 and others also agree...down to +162

Best to you pal

 

[axp59]

Don't tell me you were happy with a 3-0 day. I showed you up with my 4-0 day. :mj07:

But I'm with you, I liked 4 games yesterday but don't like much even though there are twice as many games.

that's a great day Joe. I'm not going to force the issue today. STL will have to do for today. BOL pal...

 

[axp59]

i see some value in the fish. harden wont last long and then we know what happens next. still pondering a small play on em.

another stat is that cubs dont play well in day games after a night game for whatever that is worth.

oh what the hell...............

florida + 1.5 +113 locked in

bola

BOL with this pal. I've yet to figure out RL value this season.

 

[BIGWave]

What I can't figure out /don't like, is why a team like St. Louis is opened as a slight favorite over this not so good Washington team, and then moved to a more enticing dog by the books - with surely more action on St. Louis??? :shrug:

 

[composite]

If Florida & Balt have no value, what about Cubs or Toronto?

Personally, I'm wondering if Toronto might be worth -260. Yeah, it's a lot but Hendrickson really sucks, Holladay is dominant at home, and the Jays are coming off a loss.

 

[axp59]

If Florida & Balt have no value, what about Cubs or Toronto? Both have a hint of value if you're willing to lay the big numbers.

Personally, I'm wondering if Toronto might be worth -260. Yeah, it's a lot but Hendrickson really sucks, Holladay is dominant at home, and the Jays are coming off a loss. I do agree that TOR has more value than CHC

If you want to knock down this number a bit, you may want to consider pairing with the Nuggets ML on NBA Sunday. TOR/DEN pair is only -106

just my toughts

 

[composite]

I'm all about value in both directions. If Toronto's really a -400 or -500 then -260 is a steal.

 

[Griffin8s]

Like the play, not posting anything today or Saturday/Sunday as I'll be out of town for the race this weekend in Richmond.

Got pit passes and luxury box tickets courtesy of Crown Royal/Miller Lite so I'll be partying.

Betting Earnhardt Jr to win the race +1800 for $50

People looking for MLB do not read this post. Just for Slicer.

:nono: Slicer, Junior is my driver and he loves Richmond but Junior in the COT does not like Richmond. Only one top 10 finish in the 4 Richmond races run in the COT. Yes I know he was leading this race last year and taken out by Busch but if your going to laying some Cash think J.J. or Mark Martin also. Richmond and Phx alot. alike. Just my thoughts man. BOL to you and have a great time Bro!! Bring some Crown to us!!

Sorry to clog your MLB thread Ax, just trying to help a fellow out. Great day by the way yesterday.:toast:

 

[axp59]

Sorry to clog your MLB thread Ax, just trying to help a fellow out. Great day by the way yesterday.:toast:

No sweat Gunny.

 

[axp59]

I wanna share some trends

betting straight dogs this season has been profitable +25.6U. Betting the favs puts you in the hole -40.9U.

Betting dogs +100 to +149 gets you +28.55U. Don't bet heavy dogs +150 and up. This is down -2.95U

 

[#cruncher]

I wanna share some trends

betting straight dogs this season has been profitable +25.6U. Betting the favs puts you in the hole -40.9U.

Betting dogs +100 to +149 gets you +28.55U. Don't bet heavy dogs +150 and up. This is down -2.95U

That's some good stuff Ax...wouldn't happen to have it broken down further on a home/away basis...if it's not too much trouble.

 

[barts185]

That's some good stuff Ax...wouldn't happen to have it broken down further on a home/away basis...if it's not too much trouble.

Hoping to save Ax some time.

Home Dogs 48-39 +17.15 units
Away Dogs 98-117 +8.45 units

Home Favorites 127-109 -20.50 units
Away Favorites 50-58 -21.45 units


Home AL Dogs 23-18 +8.85 units
Away AL Dogs 44-55 -0.30 units

Home NL Dogs 25-21 +8.30 units
Away NL Dogs 54-62 +8.75 units

Home AL Favs 61-50 -4.90 units
Away AL Favs 24-29 -11.45 units

Home NL Favs 66-59 -15.60 units
Away NL Favs 26-29 -10.00 units


One other thing I'll throw out since it's May 1.

Betting road teams in May has done very poorly the last 4 years.

month=5 and site and season
or
month=5 and site and season and conference

should prove beneficial. Or not. But it sure was a surprise to me.