MLB FRI 050809 early thoughts - value hunting

[axp59]

2009
Away SP ERA<4.00 facing opponent SP ERA>6

36-6
+33.9 Units
70.9% ROI

Away SP ERA better than opponent SP ERA by at least 2.00

86-33
+62.6 Units
47.4% ROI

Away SP WHIP better than opponent SP WHIP by at least .25

108-34
+92.15 Units
59.9% ROI

Away SP ERA better than opponent SP ERA by at least 2.00 and Away SP WHIP better than opponent SP WHIP by at least .25

54-11
+51 Units
71.2% ROI

Away SP ERA between 3.01-4.01 facing opponent SP ERA between 7.11-8.11

3-0
+3.25 Units
82.3% ROI
_____
Away SP ERA=3.51
Home SP ERA=7.61

Away SP WHIP=1.20
Home SP WHIP=1.82

Away bullpen WHIP=1.43
Home bullpen WHIP=1.36

Away bullpen ERA=3.90
Home bullpen ERA=3.08

Away line -109
Home line +101

Away SP- J. Shields
Home SP- B. Penny

My play on TB Rays
BOLTA

 

[grindstone]

Hey AX so far MLB has not been to good to me. I was wondering what do you think of Det as a dog today.

SP
Det Verlander
Clev Lee - 130

liking TB also sir GL

 

[ReadySetGo]

Great analysis Ax, thanks.

 

[success1]

Love Friday nite road dogs in first series game. Public usually love the home favorite.....may play every rd dog 2 nite and see what happens.....just a few winners will be plus $.....gl, Ax. :em71:

 

[axp59]

Hey AX so far MLB has not been to good to me. I was wondering what do you think of Det as a dog today.

SP
Det Verlander
Clev Lee - 130

liking TB also sir GL

GS, I just looked at my cap notes for this game and show no value. I can't remember exactly what it was that made it a no play. Have you read this post by IE2002 "Where?s The Money At?" The LAD brining in some nice cash. I'll send you an email shortly.

 

[axp59]

BOL everyone. Starting to turn a little profit but not nearly were I want to be yet. I'll be more active with the bases once the NBA season is over.

 

[Macgruder23]

2009
Away SP ERA<4.00 facing opponent SP ERA>6

36-6
+33.9 Units
70.9% ROI

Away SP ERA better than opponent SP ERA by at least 2.00

86-33
+62.6 Units
47.4% ROI

Away SP WHIP better than opponent SP WHIP by at least .25

108-34
+92.15 Units
59.9% ROI

Away SP ERA better than opponent SP ERA by at least 2.00 and Away SP WHIP better than opponent SP WHIP by at least .25

54-11
+51 Units
71.2% ROI

Away SP ERA between 3.01-4.01 facing opponent SP ERA between 7.11-8.11

3-0
+3.25 Units
82.3% ROI
_____
Away SP ERA=3.51
Home SP ERA=7.61

Away SP WHIP=1.20
Home SP WHIP=1.82

Away bullpen WHIP=1.43
Home bullpen WHIP=1.36

Away bullpen ERA=3.90
Home bullpen ERA=3.08

Away line -109
Home line +101

Away SP- J. Shields
Home SP- B. Penny

My play on TB Rays
BOLTA

According to these stats there are 4 other games that meet these is there a particular reason you are not playing these -- does it have to be value for you as well? thanks

 

[axp59]

Mac, I only see 1 other game with ERA less than 4 and ERA more than 6 matchup.

FLA: R. Nolasco (1-3, 7.03)
COL: J. Hammel (0-0, 3.45)

I stayed away from this since both their WHIPs are @ 1.63 and 1.72 respectively.

Can you please let me know what other games you are referring to?

 

[Macgruder23]

Away SP ERA better than opponent SP ERA by at least 2.00 and Away SP WHIP better than opponent SP WHIP by at least .25

Reyes 5.00 / 1.28
Hamels 7.27 / 1.79

Martis 4.60 / 1.36
Petit 7.23 / 1.61

Richmond 2.67 / 1.22
Outman 5.02 / 1.54

Sorry 3 others besides TBay--am i reading this wrong?

 

[grindstone]

GS, I just looked at my cap notes for this game and show no value. I can't remember exactly what it was that made it a no play. Have you read this post by IE2002 "Where?s The Money At?" The LAD brining in some nice cash. I'll send you an email shortly.

No haven't read it but thanks alot for thinking of me Sir

 

[Macgruder23]

AXP thanks for taking time to explain.. I think I know why these other 3 don't fit, I was looking at any era 2 better than home with whip better by .25

 

[patriot09]

hey ax what games do u likefor today, i was leaning towards toronto, thanx

 

[Slicer]

Indians are my POD today GS

 

[rms8325]

love the indians pick Verlander is 1-7 in his career in cleveland with an era of 9.00

 

[grindstone]

Indians are my POD today GS

Thanks alot Slice you have been on fire with the NHL any plays tonight??

 

[BIGWave]

love the indians pick Verlander is 1-7 in his career in cleveland with an era of 9.00

CRAP - the more I read today's thread the more I dislike everything I was looking at...........
Was looking at Verlander here.............lookiing at ax's pick of course - then read that "Shields implodes at Fenway. In 4 career starts, he has lasted just 15 2/3 innings and allowed 27 hits and 17 earned runs".

Might have to just sit out..............:nono:

 

[axp59]

Away SP ERA better than opponent SP ERA by at least 2.00 and Away SP WHIP better than opponent SP WHIP by at least .25

Reyes 5.00 / 1.28
Hamels 7.27 / 1.79

Martis 4.60 / 1.36
Petit 7.23 / 1.61

Richmond 2.67 / 1.22
Outman 5.02 / 1.54

Sorry 3 others besides TBay--am i reading this wrong?

yeah, the first qualifier is:

Away SP ERA<4.00 facing opponent SP ERA>6

36-6
+33.9 Units
70.9% ROI

 

[axp59]

CRAP - the more I read today's thread the more I dislike everything I was looking at...........
Was looking at Verlander here.............lookiing at ax's pick of course - then read that "Shields implodes at Fenway. In 4 career starts, he has lasted just 15 2/3 innings and allowed 27 hits and 17 earned runs".

Might have to just sit out..............:nono:

So true about his past performance at Fenway and gave up 5ER last time here in BOS this year. This is a sys play for me that popped up when I applied the filters above. BOL Dave

 

[grindstone]

So true about his past performance at Fenway and gave up 5ER last time here in BOS this year. This is a sys play for me that popped up when I applied the filters above. BOL Dave

Sorry AX but where do you get stuff like this??? Sorry for being lost :shrug:


36-6
+33.9 Units
70.9% ROI

Is there a site in particular

 

[grindstone]

Sorry AX but where do you get stuff like this??? Sorry for being lost :shrug:


36-6
+33.9 Units
70.9% ROI

Is there a site in particular

OH AX check your email sir