ANAHEIM ?1.5 RUNLINE ?115:
This game looks to be a one sided affair today?and yes I?m betting against my Tribe today! First of all, let?s take a look at the mental outlook of the teams for this game:
Anaheim?s a team that has now won 5 games in a row including a couple come from behind victories and you gotta feel their confidence level is sky high right now. On the other hand, Cleveland lost on that walk-off homer last night which is mentally draining enough, but also had to make the long west coast trip after the game which after a loss like that just makes it seem worse.
Anaheim?s played Cleveland 6 times this season and is averaging a whopping 8 runs per game and I think you?ll see Anaheim put some runs up again in this game as well.
Reason I think that?.well, Ryan Drese is getting the start for the Tribe today and this is a kid that struggles under pressure. Some games he?ll look like Cy Young for the first several innings, but if he gives up a couple hits or walks, the guy just seems to lose all focus and concentration. Being a fan, I?ve seen this in a lot of his starts and some numbers to prove how he loses focus under pressure situations are the following:
Drese with runners on??allows a .330 average to hitters
Drese with runners in scoring position?.allows a .394 average to hitters
Drese with runners in scoring pos and 2 out?allows a .370 average
Overall he allows a very high .316 average to hitters.
Drese also wears down as the game goes on?..The first 6 innings, he?s allowing batters to hit for a .313 average off him, but if he happens to go more than 6, he starts allowing batters to hit .385 off him! More than likely he?s only going to go around the 6 max, which shows you gotta handicap the bullpen in this game, which will more than likely play a role in at least a third of this game for Cleveland:
Cleveland?s bullpen has been having problems lately. Overall for the season, their pen has a 5.38 ERA which is considered very high, but then if you look at the pen?s ERA on the road, it?s at 6.87 ! Then if you look at their pen?s ERA over the last 10 games, it?s at 10.89
Drese has made 2 career starts vs Anaheim which were both this season and really struggled in both of them, allowing 17 hits in just 12 total innings while giving up 8 runs even though only 5 were earned. Ironically, he did get the win in the first meeting, but that was back on April 3rd (the first week of the season) when the pitchers tend to have the advantage over the hitters, plus Anaheim was struggling very early in the season. Even in that first game however, they still managed 9 hits in just 5.2 innings off Drese.
Now let?s get to Lackey, who?s getting the start for Anaheim:
Unlike Drese, Lackey is a young pitcher that seems to excel in pressure situations:
Lackey with runners on?..allowing a .182 average
Lackey with runners in scoring position..allowing a .220 average
Lackey with runners in scoring pos and 2 out?allowing a .167 average
Overall, Lackey is allowing a very respectable average of just .249 overall, so you can see how much better the guy is able to concentrate on getting hitters out when he needs to!
Another key in this game is the fact that Lackey is only allowing a .165 average to left-handed batters (.322 to righties) This will give the edge to Lackey who will more than likely be seeing a minimum of 5 left-handed batters with 6 if Lee Stevens plays. All the current Cleveland outfielders on the roster are left-handed and the other Main stays that are lefty are Thome, Vizquel and Lee Stevens if he plays.
Cleveland is dead last in the league in team batting average at .247 and they are really bad as a team vs right-handed pitching, hitting just .238 as a team?Lackey is right-handed J
Now the biggest situational key in this game: Lackey has only allowed 3 home runs in his young career which covers 9 starts?.Pretty amazing. Now what?s key about this is the fact that the Majority of Cleveland?s run scoring comes via the long ball?.They wre leading the league in this category and I believe they still are. That?s why you?ll see them put some runs up in a lot of games and none others. It?s also hints abit why they are dead last in the league in average and lead the league in double plays grounded into. With this stat being said, along with the righty stuff, I just cannot see the Tribe putting up too many runs today????Crunched some numbers and came up with this stat: Cleveland is just 8-26 on the season when no one on the team hits a home run!!! In other words, they have only won 8 games the whole year when they haven?t cranked at least one out. HUGE ADVANTAGE LACKEY HERE!
Bottom line, there?s a lot of very key situational matchups that do not favor the Tribe at all and give the big edge to Anaheim in this game?.along with a lot of Mental factors as well. Looks like a one sided affair to me. Opting for the runline in this one?.think the Angels cover easily. Only thing keeping me from playing the moneyling, or laying 2 units on the runline is not having Ump info. and we still are dealing with young pitchers.
Good luck :thumb:
