Mlb Plays Friday June 7

[ndnfan]

Yesterday: 1-0 (+1 Unit)

SEASON: 126-96 (+23.8 UNITS)
Sides: 91-76 (+7.35 Units)
Totals: 35-20 (+16.45 Units)
____________________________________________

Playing 2 games today:

NY METS -135 (1 UNIT)
SAN DIEGO -120 (1 UNIT)

Will likely have more games tommorrow when the Ump info is available. Using the Umpire info and matching them up with the pitching styles is a very valuable capping tool, but even more so in interleague play when you have a little less to go on.

Busy today..not a lot of time to post all my reasonings, but I do wanna point out a couple of interesting notes in the Mets game:

The Met's Al Leiter has struggled a bit his last 3 starts, but 2 were against a group of Florida players that have hit him pretty well in the past..so that in effect is easing my decision a bit.

Gotta feel Robby Alomar is gonna try to get his team really pumped for this one. Alomar was pretty mad when he got traded.

Baez is not even averaging 6 innings per start this season. You WILL see the bullpen and if you wanna take a look at a bullpen that is in bad shape...it's Clevelands. Last 10 games, the pen has a 9.00 ERA. The bullpen's ERA for the season is up to 5.21. Also Wickman is having elbow troubles(went numb on him warming up 2 days ago) Shuey seems to be the only bright spot.

We all know the Met's hitting woes. Vs lefties for the season, they're hitting just .216...even worse on the road at .197! BUT THIS IS VS A RIGHTY TODAY. Met's actually are respectable vs righties ( I said respectable...NOT good) but what's key in this game is that it's almost guaranteed that they do not see a lefty in the game today. Cleveland has only one lefty in the bullpen (Rincon) and he's appeared in 3 straight games, so it's doubtful he pitches today. This will only help the Mets hitting.

If I get time, I'll try to get more posted.

GL today

 

[loophole]

it's so seldom that i am not in agreement with your plays that i feel compelled to play devil's advocate when i see one of your games the other way. one of the first plays i saw this morning that i liked was the indians.


mets are mired in the midst of an offensive slump that has triggered five road losses in a row. mets are averaging 3.9 rpg over their last 10, and have scored 3 runs or less in 5 of those 10. they arw 2-8 in their last 10 road games and just got swept in the sweltering atlanta heat by their arch-rival braves. saw a report that said piazza was seeing spots yesterday and had to come out of the game and take fluids as a result of the heat. i realize mets get to add a dh today, but do the mets have a hot stick on the bench that i'm not aware of? leiter hasn't done much better of late in his last 3 starts, he hasn't made it past the 5th inning and has an era of 9.82. needless to say, mets have lost all 3. in leiter's 6 starts in the month of may, mets have scored 16 total runs and are 2-4.

cleveland has been coming around offensively, averaging 5.1 rpg the last 10, scoring 4 or more 7 times. they have won 5 of their last 7 home games, albeit against detroit and the slumping white sox. they have managed to hit .287 on the year against lefties. baez has been steady if unspectacular, and has the advantage of the mets having never seen him. with the exception of thome, who is red hot anyway, most of the cleveland hitters have seen and been relatively successful against leiter. indian pen numbers are not so good lately, but remember, they are skewed by that 23 run debacle on tuesday that just affected a couple of guys.

all in all , it just appeared to me that this is not a good time for the mets to be coming to an unfamiliar place to play an unfamiliar team with an unfamiliar pitcher, especially afer being stuffed, broiled and swept away in atlanta. just another take on the game, hope you don't mind. you know i'm always appreciative of your work.

 

[ndnfan]

especially afer being stuffed, broiled and swept away in atlanta

....such a brutal description loop.....I love it

Anyways getting back to this game, you do bring up a lot of good points, however you said that a lot of these Indian hitters have faced Leiter in the past? I see only 3 possible starters that have any career at-bats vs him: Milton Bradley(0 for 3) Ellis Burks(2 for 5) Ricky Gutierrez(0 for 6)), so I don't really see any advatage for the Indians hitters.

I get the luxury(if you wanna call it that) of being able to watch or at least listen to every Tribe game. Now, I know I'm not an expert or anything(maybe just too hardcore of fan), but I still don't think they are playing very well. Heck, Fryman's in such a slump, he even tried putting down a sacrifice bunt with 2 strikes on him last night, of course he struck out. This is also a team that I'm pretty sure leads the league in double plays grounded into.

Just seems to me like a lot of their runs are coming from the long ball, which is not a good matchup with Leiter, who always has low totals on home runs given up each year. This year's no different....he's only given up 5 in 12 starts(2 of those last start)

As far as pitching, I just see it as a total mismatch. You know how they say "good pitching beats good hitting" well a lot of times "mediocre hitting kills bad pitching." I could possibly just see the Mets taking it to the Cleveland pitching in this game. Baez just walks way to many and even if he gets out of his jams from walking batters, the pitch count runs up in a hurry. This Cleveland bullpen is in the worse shape of the season(even without that 23 run game) and if there's any Tribe fan reading this, I'm sure they would agree. If the game is close, which based on the starters going today, think it could be, it's game-set-match Mets IMO.



And definately appeciate your take on the game loophole. I love hearing different opinions on the games. Wish more people would post showing how they're viewing the games

So I am a bit curious, are you playing the Tribe tonight? If you're not then Good luck If you are...well :nono:

 

[gsp]

ndn, you might want to look at my post about interleague. Keep up the good workand good luck today.

 

[monkey]

top play

top play

have SD on the top of my list also ND

mets are a better team than they are playing now coming off of a
sweep is interesting .

for sure with the SD play still looking into mets

always read your write ups

 

[ndnfan]

good luck today monkey.....think these 2 are the way to go today. We'll see.

 

[Bromo]

Got to say that I like these two games also, feel strong about Lawrence being on the mound tonight. Leiter wont let this Mets team get to far down, he is a leader and will show that tonight. Just hope the bats come alive for a win.

 

[loophole]

all good points,ndnfan. with reference to the cleveland hitters vs leiter, here's the stats i got from vegasinsider:

bradley 0/2 .000
burks 8/24 .333
fryman 3/10 .300
perez 4/14 .333
thome 1/10 .100
vizquel 4/18 .222


i know everyone has scouting reports, but i just feel it's of some advantage to have seen a pitcher rather than facing an unknown, especially when your offense is struggling. also, i'm probably reading too much significance into it but i feel getting swept by the braves is a real downer for the mets and a warning sign about how shaky their offense is at this point. and leiter is just not himself. i've seen published speculation in the press that he's nursing some type of injury. i think the talk is that piazza will probably dh tonight in light of his heat exhaustion yesterday. anyway, kinda funny that i'm stating the indians case to you of all people.


and yes, indians are a play for me, so the nice thing is one of us will get some dough regardless. good luck in all your plays.

 

[Hailmary]

Where in NC Loop?

 

[ndnfan]

loophole.....you have the stats career wise right for Indians vs Leiter. The numbers I used were stats that go back 5 years through the 1998 season(although Bradley is still one off?). So most those at-bats were quite a while ago.

Always appreciate your opinions....If everyone agreed, sportsbooks would not exist. Good luck to one of us

 

[wigs]

not sure if this is even relevant or how it would affect the team but i imagine a lot of the guys know him so i thought i'd post it since you are on san diego--

bierbrodt shot, in serious condition
http://msn.espn.go.com/mlb/news/2002/0607/1392046.html

 

[Spock]

did not make either plays but GREAT CALL

Cheers !!!
Spock

 

[GENO]

AHHHHHHHH MAGGOOOOOOO (ndnfan) YYYYYYOOOOUUUUU"VE

DONE IT AGAIN !!!!:toast:


YOUR BOOKIE :Yep:

your bookie with ndnfans plays :bigun:




got home late & missed the Mets but I GOT the PADRES

 

[ndnfan]

Thanks Spock.

Geno...... :lol: love it!


San Diego game went as planned, but Actually the Mets game was one of those "fifty-fifty" games. Didn't really think the game went as I capped it....started off with Froemming being named the home ump, which I didn't care for in the matchup today....also was surprised when the Indians put Rincon in for the 4th straight game plus Baez had his longest outing of the year. I'm just happy to hit about 50% of these....I'll take it though.

 

[cisco]

Excellent capping.

 

[slvrblet]

very nice picks.....

 

[EASY MONEY!]

AWESOME 2-0

Keep up the Excellent Plays:clap: :clap:

Looking Foward to Saturday's Plays

Thanks EASY MONEY!

 

[heleanth]

Thanks and nice work, ndnfan! I hopped on both your plays. I appreciate your insights and your selections. Keep up the good work and continued good fortune to you!

 

[cotton]

great job....:toast:

 

[Winphoto1]

Great capping Pete!!! Thanks for the easy $$$.