Chicago White Sox +170:
There is a ton of value in the White Sox today. Here's some of my key angles and reasoning in this one:
Colon has made 13 career starts vs the White Sox and has a very high 5.36 ERA in those starts.
This season in 2 starts vs Chicago, he is 0-2 with a 5.11 ERA, giving up 14 hits and walking 7 in just 12.1 innings while only striking out 6 in the 2 games.
Last season was no different. In 2 starts, he was 0-2 with a 7.30 ERA, giving up 15 hits and walking 6 in just 12.1 innings.
There are several current Chicago players in the lineup today that have awesome career numbers vs Colon:
Ray Durham .314
Paul Konerko .333
Carlos Lee .345
Kenny Lofton .333
Frank Thomas .435
Jose Valentin .292
These 6 players are batting a combined .340 over their careers off of Colon (48 hits in 141 at bats)
Colon has had a pretty easy time of disposing of batters of late, but you have to also realize that they were against very weak offensive teams. His last 4 starts were vs Toronto, Detroit, Baltimore, and Kansas City. These 4 teams are hitting anywhere's from just .244 to .256 as a team, while the White Sox are hitting .275 as a team this season.
Also, if you can remember, after Colon's start vs Detroit he complained of pain in his elbow which Colon said is reminding him of when he had bone chips removed back in 1995. Now what's interesting is the fact that in his next start vs Toronto he pitched a complete game. But you also gotta remember this was against a Toronto team that is hitting just .245 overall this season. Also in that game, Colon threw approximately 92% fastballs which leads me to believe either he is still experiencing pain in the elbow and didn't want to put the added stress on the elbow by throwing his other pitches or the elbow is still in the back of his mind and may be worried a bit about it.
The above is a huge angle considering the fact that the White Sox are one of the best fastball hitting teams in the league. You also gotta believe Colon will not be as sharp with his curve with all this in the back of his mind. Colon has been a workhorse all season, but is coming off the 2 highest consecutive pitch counts all year at 237 pitches combined for the last 2 games and is also coming off just 4 days rest.
Cleveland is hitting just .227 as a team vs righties this season and if you throw out last nights offensive explosion by the Tribe, they have not scored more than 5 runs in their prior 14 games.
Glover has made 3 career starts vs the Indians and is 1-1 with a 3.18 ERA. In all his appearances vs the Tribe, he has only given up 20 hits in 28.1 innings of work.
Glover's career ERA at home and on the road is almost the same with it actually being a bit better on the road which is something I like to see in a pitcher. It shows he has the ability to keep his mental focus even if he doesn't have the support of the home fans.
The current Cleveland players in the probable lineup today have 54 career at bats vs Glover and are hitting just a combined .185 vs him having just 10 hits in those 54 at bats.
Glover is also a Cleveland native which leads me to believe his motivation will be a bit higher pitching here today.
The White Sox are averaging 5.7 runs per game overall this season vs righties, while the Indians are averaging just 3.8 runs per game vs righties this year.
Also an interesting note if you're trying to read into the Vegas line at all, the Over/Under in this game is set at 9 which is interesting due to the fact Cleveland is the -185 favorite. This means if this game were to go Over the total, the Indians would have to score a minimum of 6 runs assuming Cleveland wins (which the line indicates they're supposed to) This just doesn't seem right since Cleveland hasn't scored more than 5 runs in a game their last 14 games (I'm not including last night's game in regards that the Vegas line was posted before that game even started) Maybe Vegas is telling us the Sox are going to put up some runs vs Colon?
We'll see.
A lot of ways you can look at this game, but I see it as a very nice White Sox WIN as a very high DOG!! I'll take my chances and play the ChiSox tonight.
Good luck.
